'Jesstimate' - The Jessica Watson Arrival Time Contest

[Hirophant]

Originally Posted by sec906

From Jessica's web site today: "...Saturday 15 May...Jessica will cross the finish line at approximately 11:30am and arrive at the Sydney Opera House around 12.30pm"

Good job you posted that, I was about to predict Saturday the 8th! She must have decided to take a holiday or something, it shouldn't be taking 10 days to sail the remaning miles. I hope she doesn't run into the Silver Yang again whilst dawdling in the shipping lanes off Sydney!

[bengtinge]

This the development of my forecasts:
Day . : . ETA Forecast
23 Feb (at Cape Good Hope) : 28 April
14 March : 2 May
29 March (at Longitude 90) : 2 May
11 April (at Cape Leeuwin) : 3 May
18 April : 6 May
25 April : 7 May
3 May (at SE Tasmania) : 10 May
8 May (Latest) : 11 May


She has gone slow since Cape Leewin. About 75 nm per day along theoretical path, while it was 100 nm per day before.
I changed my calculation speed for Hobart-Sydney to 70 nm per day and she has followed it fairly well, even if she seems to have only one sail up (seen in the helicopter video).

Her manager has decided the arrival to 15 May so she surely will be there, since there is a large operation it seems. Many want a fixed time for arrival: TV, press, police, traffic planners, event people etc.

She must slow down if she shall not arrive 11 or 12 May.

/Ben, Sweden

[slomotion]

Well, under the previously announced rules, the winner is Sailorette with a guess of noon on May 5th. CONGRATULATIONS!!!

BUT, remember:

Originally Posted by slomotion

Physical interference and extortion are prohibited. Inside information, trading therein, and bribery are, of course, perfectly legal. In the interest of fairness, all rules are subject to change for a good reason, a bad reason, or no reason at all.

Although I seem to remember some enthusiastic cheering (bartenders, waitresses, ex-wives) when I set off on some of my perilous voyages, I don't recall much fanfare upon my return. Probably, this is because it never occurred to me that these things can be orchestrated.

It seems to me that the original rules also failed to anticipate an orchestrated arrival. Therefore, ROUND TWO:

1. Exact hour and minute of Jessica's May 15th official arrival.

2. Deadline: Midnight May 14, 2010.

[Hirophant]

For crossing the finishing line, I'm going to guess 11:30 am local time!

[TaoJones]

Originally Posted by Hirophant

For crossing the finishing line, I'm going to guess 11:30 am local time!

Wow . . . what a coincidence, Hirophant, that's what I was going to guess! Remarkable!

From her website:

"Jessica needs to cross the finish line at Sydney Heads to officially complete her voyage. She will then cruise down Sydney Harbour before disembarking at Sydney Opera House.

"It is anticipated that Jessica will cross the finish line at approximately 11:30am and arrive at the Sydney Opera House around 12.30pm, the first time she will have set foot on land in almost seven months."

Okay, just to make it interesting, I'm going to enter a different guess:

11:37:17 Saturday Morning, May 15, 2010

TaoJones

[Sailorette]

Yay!!! I won!!!

What did we win? Was it the chartered boat trip in French Polynesia?

[sec906]

Originally Posted by Sailorette

Yay!!! I won!!!
What did we win? Was it the chartered boat trip in French Polynesia?

Yes! Congratulations! We just need you to send small handling charge of $499 to process your travel arrangements for your 14-day French Polynesia Holiday. I'll PM the address where you can send the payment.

[Sailorette]

We would like a fully provisioned boat. We won't need a captain, but we will need a cook and maid.

[slomotion]

Originally Posted by Sailorette

Yay!!! I won!!!

What did we win? Was it the chartered boat trip in French Polynesia?

This is a fair question, but remember it took months of preparation and sailing for Jessica to make you the winner. So, it wouldn't surprise me if it took months to determine an appropriate prize. Plus we now have the problem of Round Two. Right now I'm thinking one of those Pink ballcaps from Jessica's web site to be exchanged weekly between the Round One and Round Two winners.

No, that won't do. Hmmm ....... time for another beer.

[Sailorette]

Yes - that could work - that is if SailorByFate would make a winning guess

[sailorbyfate]

I can understand why you'd be willing to share a pink ball cap with me - you'd have it all to yourself!

[slomotion]

11:48:39 AM, May 15, 2010.

Whew, that was a close one. I have decided that after today contest rule makers will no longer be allowed to enter.

[TaoJones]

Thanks for leaving me the 00:11:22 cushion, slomo . . . I like the numerology of 00:11:22.

TaoJones

[Hirophant]

Just a quick note to say I want to revise my guess to 1:50pm.

[bengtinge]

She hasn't kept schedules. But maybe that is a thing with sailboats.