Yachting FAIL - Jessica Watson

[MarkJ]

Well someone might be fibbin'

"She has faced some pretty tough conditions. Last night the wind got up to 33 knots but there was also a very heavy swell about four to five metres," Mr Fraser told AAP.

I wonder where......

Maximum Gust recorded 24 hours
Newcastle Nobbys SE 22 12:03am
Lake Macquarie E 15 12:22pm
Norah Head ESE 24 01:33am
SYDNEY North Head ESE 28 06:08am
Lord Howe Island E 27 12.30pm

So she has had probably up to 25 kts as a Maximum gust, on the beam.
Averages a lot lower.

The only 33 kts was a forecast. Not quite the same....

Just a bit of gilding the lily to a suspension of disbelief media?

Or is it really like Hitlers Brown Shirts where the kids propaganda machine rules supreme?

And if those that worry about negative posts worry about mine, then I ask why would it be necessary for her team to lie?

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by John A

bill good,
the record for the oldest singlehandler is 89, but he stopped several times along the way....

89 year old bladder...

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

89 year old bladder...

[FrankZ]

There are a lot of familiar faces in this thread that have decided that it is ok to debate the posters and not the topic. I have removed several posts in lieu of just closing this thread and hitting the infraction button.

If you feel like a post you have made is missing and wish to discuss it you may send a PM to myself or any member of the moderation team.

If this thread degenerates back into the same personal attack theme it will be closed and the offenders will receive official paperwork from the moderation team.

Thank you.

[Ocean Girl]

Thanks FrankZ! was hoping you all would step in.

As you all know I am no big fan of her leaving, but now that she is out there I think it would be good to try and support her and her family as best as we can. For me that means following her progress and saying big fat prayers of protection for her, her boat, and anyone around her.

Any news on her progress?

Erika

[osirissail]

Anybody have a web-based AIS access to see where she is now?

[Sandyh]

She's about to enter Sydney Harbour after a 5-day sea-trial cruise from Queensland. Roughly 2 weeks to departure on the world trip.

FrankZ is happy for me to correct the details of MarkJ's post above regarding wind strength.

Folks from all over the world read this forum and it needs to be said that at the time the quoted comments were made, her vessel was nowhere near the locations citing wind strength given in MarkJ's post.

Friday's max wind for Byron Bay [Australia's eastern-most point] was 31kts and hundreds of miles closer to her probable location. If you're going to be a critic, get your facts straight!!

Cheers

[Pelagic]

I agree….Lets just poke fun at the Goat on that other thread… (They are used to being the Butt of many a joke and love to kid around themselves) J

Perhaps it is time for supporters to begin a positive new thread, updating us on how Jessica is doing, referring anyone to the “failed” thread if they want to repeat the same old same old

[Artful Dodger]

I will make this my last comment here on this thread and will wish Jessica all the best of luck, good winds, and not to pay any attention to arm chair sailors or their comments as we can only dream of what you are about to attemt. Best of luck and God bless

Crew of Artful

[surfingminniwinni]

Jessica has just arrived in Sydney. Approx 15.10 Sydney time.

Well said Artful, I could'nt agree more.


Cheers,

Glenn

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by Sandyh

her vessel was nowhere near the locations citing wind strength given in MarkJ's post.

Friday's max wind for Byron Bay [Australia's eastern-most point] was 31kts and hundreds of miles closer to her probable location. If you're going to be a critic, get your facts straight!!

Cheers

I think I was right as her course at the time was 200 which would indicate she was south of Cape Byron.
Further, if the maximum wind gust for the 24 hours was 31 kts then the average was much lower. A gust does not produce 4- 5 meter seas as also reported by the PR rep. In fact the seas in the area were 2 meters and the 3 meter line was to seaward of Cape Byron. Those off the Bureau of Meteorology website

So now matter where she was they still exaggerated the wind strength and the sea state.

Yes, they needed to be factually spot-on because there has been so many critics about. When one can be under fire its usual to 'cross the T's and dot the i's'. They need to and I believe I did. I'd even go as far as to say that media reps need to be careful when reporting to the public they they don't miscontrue apparent wind for true wind. As we all know on the beam reach our wind speed could say a steady 20 knots but then if we turn upwind into a 15 second gust the wind meter could easily show 34 kts for 15 seconds (28kts true wind gust and 7 kts boat speed = 34 kts apparent aprox. [BOM: Wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here,]) . If the media rep then did a release: "Gale Force winds Onlslaught!" The sceptics could rightly say hang on, it was only 20kts

Buy yes, of course Erika is right, we all hope for the safe return of Jessica.


Mark

[fabian1956]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

Further, if the maximum wind gust for the 24 hours was 31 kts then the average was much lower. A gust does not produce 4- 5 meter seas as also reported by the PR rep. In fact the seas in the area were 2 meters and the 3 meter line was to seaward of Cape Byron. Those off the Bureau of Meteorology website

Originally Posted by MarkJ

I personally experienced a “Southerly Buster” in the marina at Tweed Heads on Saturday afternoon and my ships weather station reported an average of 24 knots in a very sheltered location. This was at 8 feet above water level. For those not familiar with the NSW coast the wind can vary enormously over a distance of as little as 10 miles. I have no difficulty believing the BOM weather forecast and would suggest it was blowing up to 40% more at times. I’ve been out there in such weather and it demands respect and a little conservative sailing to not end up in trouble.

I have attached a GRIB chart that shows the area from Southport to Sydney and the expected winds offshore as compared to inshore and over land. I don’t have the file for the period Jessica was sailing but this is indicative of wind patterns in this season. This image is actually for later this week. It shows how the shore based weather stations are accurately reporting mild winds while anyone out wide is doing it tough.

Mark, as an experienced sailor I would expect you would have known better!

Fabian

[fabian1956]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Perhaps it is time for supporters to begin a positive new thread, updating us on how Jessica is doing, referring anyone to the “failed” thread if they want to repeat the same old same old

So where is the "Go Jessica" positive thread? Has it been formed yet? The title of this thread is too negative for my continued monitoring... I for one want progress, and positive encouragement in the thread. I'm tired of reading comments from "half empties" I'm a "half Full" person and I recognize a few more like me who have participated in this thread. Let's go and be supportive.

Fabian

[Pelagic]

I think you should start it Fabian...since you are following her adventure closely.

Would love to hear updates

[cooper]

Safe voyage Jessica.
I have had the pleasure of talking with one of her mentors, and I can assure you that they are not crazy people with no experience.
The breaking of records (damm we are doing that a bit too much lattely if you are worried about your kids) is a human constant. Better to support the willing and reasonably equiped , rather than by "regulation" put it in the hands of the desperate to be noticed.