Cost of Air-Cond Units May Rise

[GordMay]

The cost of air conditioning units may be expected to rise [±10 to 20%?], next year, because of regulatory changes, in keeping with the Montreal Protocol of 1987, and, in the USA, the AIM act [2]. [I expect most countries will have similar regulation/legislation]

In 2025, units will use a different kind of refrigerant, R-454B*, which releases fewer greenhouse gases, and has a lower Global Warming Potential [GWP], than R-410A.
In 2025, AC units, with the old refrigerant, can be sold, as long as the stock exists, up until 2026.

* R-454B was developed, in the late 2010s, by Chemours, under the trade name “Opteon XL41" [1], and was formulated to serve as a lower GWP [global warming potential] alternative to R-410A, the usage of which, has dominated the commercial HVAC market, since the phaseout of R-22.
R-454B, features a GWP of 466, significantly lower than that of R-410A, with a GWP between 1890 and 2100.
Some manufactures have chosen R-32, a nonblended refrigerant, with a GWP of 675.

[1] Opteon™ XL41 (R-454B) Refrigerant
➥ https://www.opteon.com/en/products/refrigerants/xl41

[1b] Solstice® 454B (R-454B) Refrigerant – A lower GWP replacement for R-410A
➥ https://advancedmaterials.honeywell....iAAEgLCR_D_BwE

[2] USEPA:
Phasedown of Hydrofluorocarbons: Restrictions on the Use of Certain Hydrofluorocarbons under Subsection (i) of the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act of 2020
➥ https://www.epa.gov/system/files/doc...sheet-2023.pdf

[Turtle Blues]

The amount of pure science that goes into calculating the GWP of a substance is staggering.
The problematic shift is the translation of this data into public policy legislation which is driven by politicians and their special interest supporters. Let the claim of conspiracy theory begin. Does anyone remember that R22 was coincidentally banned just as the patent was about to expire?
The measurement of radiative forcing requires comparing a specific volume of the substance. This is where the transfer of science into policy goes awry.
The only quantification of refrigerants that is available is what is manufactured and sold.
The arbitrary assumed calculation is what will make it into the atmosphere. Given that reclaiming refrigerant is a mandatory step in any system repair this reduces the loss volume (outside of manufacturing processes) to those situations where a catastrophic failure and leak occurs, and the extremely minor amounts associated with mechanical disconnections.
There is no disputing that these new gasses are cleaner in a laboratory test. What should be questioned is the necessity of migrating to them.
Unfortunately that decision is already legislated.
I will leave now. I seem to have misplaced my tinfoil hat.