Aground at Elbow Cay

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Here's the ASCAT wind speeds in the area on Jan 7. Looks like they would have seen consistent high 30's with plenty of low 40's out of the N if they were in this band.

Hi Skipmac.. This post shows the actual winds on the 7th when the boat went ashore.. a strong NE'ly

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Hi Skipmac.. This post shows the actual winds on the 7th when the boat went ashore.. a strong NE'ly

Ok, thanks. So if they were trying to make northing and on a stbd tack that would give them a heading roughly NW and put them onto the beach. Switching to the port tack would have put them on a beam to broad reach into safety bur farther off shore and away from their course.

So speculation, they didn't have a good position, didn't see the lighthouse (or it wasn't working) or the lights on shore, trying to make the corner to sail along the NE edge of the Abacos and got too close. Once off soundings it was probably really rough, maybe breaking waves, possibly hit a coral head with damage and then it was too late; they were trapped.

Would be very interested to learn exactly what did happen.

[four winds]

I think I read up thread that it wasn't until after the ground tackle failed that things went really bad. And that is when the need to escape a lee shore occured.

After days at sea, hand steering in a storm, no engine, and certainly exhausted they were trying to make it to Abacos, not escape it. Didn't make it to the best spot, but decided to anchor in an acceptable spot to get rested and continue to a common anchorage when they and hopefully the weather were better.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by four winds

I think I read up thread that it wasn't until after the ground tackle failed that things went really bad. And that is when the need to escape a lee shore occured.

After days at sea, hand steering in a storm, no engine, and certainly exhausted they were trying to make it to Abacos, not escape it. Didn't make it to the best spot, but decided to anchor in an acceptable spot to get rested and continue to a common anchorage when they and hopefully the weather were better.

I had thought they anchored when they hit the shallows as a last resort to keep the boat off the beach. There is really no protection and nowhere to anchor on the east side of the Abacos. Only protection is to go through one of the passes to the sound and that's not safe or even possible in strong N - NE conditions.

[four winds]

Originally Posted by skipmac

I had thought they anchored when they hit the shallows as a last resort to keep the boat off the beach. There is really no protection and nowhere to anchor on the east side of the Abacos. Only protection is to go through one of the passes to the sound and that's not safe or even possible in strong N - NE conditions.

Ah, I see. In that case suppose their intenting was to continue onto their original destination and we're unable to stay clear around the Abacos.

I had thought that an exhausted crew had reached a critical decision point. To tack away to the open Atlantic, or to seek out any acceptable, even if marginally safe, spot to drop anchor and rest. Choosing the later only to have the tackle fail and leading to loss of the vessel.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by four winds

Ah, I see. In that case suppose their intenting was to continue onto their original destination and we're unable to stay clear around the Abacos.

I had thought that an exhausted crew had reached a critical decision point. To tack away to the open Atlantic, or to seek out any acceptable, even if marginally safe, spot to drop anchor and rest. Choosing the later only to have the tackle fail and leading to loss of the vessel.

At this point all is guesswork and speculation. They could have tried anchoring off the east coast hoping for some protection from the reefs. They could have been trying to make it around the NE corner of Elbow Cay and didn't. They could have been hove to or lying ahull thinking they were farther off than they were. Or there were some other factors that no one has considered.

At this point only those on the boat know the details. I feel for them and wish them well.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Hi Skipmac.. This post shows the actual winds on the 7th when the boat went ashore.. a strong NE'ly

Originally Posted by skipmac

Ok, thanks. So if they were trying to make northing and on a stbd tack that would give them a heading roughly NW and put them onto the beach. Switching to the port tack would have put them on a beam to broad reach into safety bur farther off shore and away from their course.

Having encountered a few of these northerlies in that area this is one of the scenarios that's been going though my head. Tacking would have put them on a safer course but one which, given the conditions, could have easily put them on a more SE'ly heading. Btwn the wind strength, wave action, & poor upwind characteristics of their boat, the apparent wind could easily have resulted in more of a close haul to the SE, and a beam or broad reach would have sent them back in the direction from which they came. In hindsight this obviously would have been more preferable, but perhaps at the time highly undesirable. Either that or a problem with sails or rigging prevented a last-minute tack to safety.

So speculation, they didn't have a good position, didn't see the lighthouse (or it wasn't working) or the lights on shore, trying to make the corner to sail along the NE edge of the Abacos and got too close. Once off soundings it was probably really rough, maybe breaking waves, possibly hit a coral head with damage and then it was too late; they were trapped.

Entirely plausible. And given that it was nighttime, they wouldn't have to have been too far off in their DR to wind up where they did.

Would be very interested to learn exactly what did happen.

Yes, especially since I for one tend to assume in these scenarios, at least initially & absent evidence that indicates otherwise, the competence of the mariners & seaworthiness of the boat. I'd like to think it was the result of a mistake or series of mistakes that I would easily avoid, but I also know it could easily be one of those scenarios I could potentially step into under similar circumstances.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by Exile

Yes, especially since I for one tend to assume in these scenarios, at least initially & absent evidence that indicates otherwise, the competence of the mariners & seaworthiness of the boat. I'd like to think it was the result of a mistake or series of mistakes that I would easily avoid, but I also know it could easily be one of those scenarios I could potentially step into under similar circumstances.

As I commented before, it could have been me. I have DR'd through the Bahamas at night and a slight miscalculation could have put me on the beach. And yes, the majority of the time it isn't one single thing but usually several things or a series of things that result in an incident.

Back to the point of sailing away from the coast. Unless they were north of Hopetown where the coastline trends NW to SE, with a NE wind a course of 160 would have taken them off the coast to open water on a broad reach, very easy point of sail for a W32. If they had been north of Hopetown it doesn't look possible for them to have beached where they did but a NE wind would certainly have made that area a lee shore.

[Matt Johnson]

I hate to speculate any more, but since people are not being accusatory towards the skipper and just trying to understand to prevent similar circumstances..... one piece of info that I didn't add to the previous posting.

Per the owner, during Hurricane Maria the rigging was compromised and the skipper rigged the cap shrouds and backstay with blue dyneema for the trip back to St Augustine. The splices were done well with a very deep and smooth bury, but if it was done with Amsteel and not a heat set line, there could have been a lot of creep on the backstay causing the headsails to bag out. He said he made a stop to tighten the rig shortly after setting out, but that could be from construction creep.

Again, I don't know that it wasn't heat set dyneema, and the forestay looked tensioned when sitting on the beach, but this could be one of the reasons the upwind sailing was hard for this boat.

Matt

[jtsailjt]

Originally Posted by four winds

I think I read up thread that it wasn't until after the ground tackle failed that things went really bad. And that is when the need to escape a lee shore occured.

After days at sea, hand steering in a storm, no engine, and certainly exhausted they were trying to make it to Abacos, not escape it. Didn't make it to the best spot, but decided to anchor in an acceptable spot to get rested and continue to a common anchorage when they and hopefully the weather were better.

I can well understand the impulse to get to shore when you're exhausted and you've beat upon and scared by the wind/waves for a few days so I don't want to second guess them (especially since I still don't feel like I know everything that happened) but it sounds like almost an ideal situation to get some sea room and then heave to until things settled down a bit. There's no way I can think of to approach the east coast of the Abacos and find safety when the winds are 30-40 out of the NE but heaving to can make a remarkable difference in your perception of how strong the wind is and how big the waves are so you can get some much needed rest and hopefully a big change in your outlook. But like I said earlier, I can well understand knowing that heaving to would make things pretty bearable, but still being seduced by the thought of being safe on land, and unless the boats skipper comes on here and lays it all out for us, all we can do is guess at filling in around the few facts we do have.

[jtsailjt]

Originally Posted by skipmac

As I commented before, it could have been me. I have DR'd through the Bahamas at night and a slight miscalculation could have put me on the beach. And yes, the majority of the time it isn't one single thing but usually several things or a series of things that result in an incident.

.

One of my longest nights spent aboard was lying hove to because we arrived at the entrance to get behind Great Stirrup about 30 minutes after dark and I didn't dare to try it. I really wanted to, and my seasick father who was helping me move the boat would have enjoyed sleeping in a not moving berth, but I chose to sail about 5 miles NE and then hove to until daylight, and since he was sick, I was on watch all night long feeling a bit ill myself, until I decided to get it over with by sticking a couple fingers down my throat, which turned out to an almost instant cure so I felt fine after that. It makes for a very long night so I can understand how, after several days of this they were sorely tempted to try to make it into Hopetown even though they probably knew it wasn't a good idea in those wind conditions.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by jtsailjt

One of my longest nights spent aboard was lying hove to because we arrived at the entrance to get behind Great Stirrup about 30 minutes after dark and I didn't dare to try it. I really wanted to, and my seasick father who was helping me move the boat would have enjoyed sleeping in a not moving berth, but I chose to sail about 5 miles NE and then hove to until daylight, and since he was sick, I was on watch all night long feeling a bit ill myself, until I decided to get it over with by sticking a couple fingers down my throat, which turned out to an almost instant cure so I felt fine after that. It makes for a very long night so I can understand how, after several days of this they were sorely tempted to try to make it into Hopetown even though they probably knew it wasn't a good idea in those wind conditions.

Been there, done that. I spent one very long night single handed when I couldn't heave to so had to tack back and forth in a 4-5 mile stretch until sunrise.

Better sick and tired than on the rocks.

[boatman61]

Everyone has focused on them hanging a right and heading out into the Atlantic.. but why could they not have turned South and run downwind then gone onto a beam reach.. or possible downwind run with an E'ly by the time they got there, along the bottom of the Bank and up to Freeport.. no trouble keeping offshore going S and with the waves.. keep sail to a minimum and just the jib.. or a controlled drift with bare poles and easy motion.
Once in the lee of the Bank if still a N'ly the sea's should be much less.. same with an E'ly going with the current.
If this is a bad idea.. Why.???
Or is everyone hung up on 'Destination or Damnation..'

[four winds]

Not a bad idea, I think. Might have been mentioned already in the thread. Not sure.

I figured they might have thought they were already well north to the extent that heading back down and around was the long way to go. Where ever they were going.

In these threads I prefer to believe crew are competent. And keep that I mind when trying understand the decisions made.

[four winds]

Originally Posted by skipmac

Been there, done that. I spent one very long night single handed when I couldn't heave to so had to tack back and forth in a 4-5 mile stretch until sunrise.

Better sick and tired than on the rocks.

Same here. A simple coastal hop mostly daylight that turns into two days and we'll into the next night before rest.

Makes exhaustion and decision making an interest of mine.