La Vagabonde's crossing

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Auspicious

I've mostly been following this thread. I have a question I have not seen addressed. Is Greta Thunberg crew or passenger? Is she at least a baby sitter? Three effective crew or one-and-a-half?

Surely she helps out when and where she can, but capable crew? I wouldn’t think so.
But even a person with no knowledge can be given a task that can help.

[jmh2002]

Just thought I would throw a quick approximate Route up in Windy.
I have only set very approximate 24 hour runs between Waypoints

This is NOT the same detailed routing/planning/polars as Breaking Waves has been posting (Basically I just guessed...).

But, it is Interactive for everyone
So anyone can play around with the weather during the crossing

Clicking this link will open the same Windy page as shown below: https://on.windy.com/31gbb

For those not familiar with Windy:

* Scroll through the Timeline to see the weather change for each day.

Each waypoint is approximately UTC 1500 / CET 1600
(assuming the 170-200nm 24 hour runs that I estimated)
So, Eg: Waypoint 2 is Tuesday 19 Nov at UTC 1500

* Hover through the Route Plan at the bottom to see the boat move between the Waypoints and Weather conditions.

* Switch to other Layers to see different information, Eg: Waves, Currents, Sea Temperature, Satellite, Clouds, Rain, Thunder, etc (click More Layers if they are not visible)

* You can also adjust the Waypoints and the Route as we get updated information

Enjoy

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

that's a nice link. I had not looked at that tab on windy before. thanks much.

You're welcome. Thanks for your more detailed Routing and info

[gaucho]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

You're welcome. Thanks for your more detailed Routing and info

Your method allows us to see clearly how they might run into a very nasty low (look at Thursday 1500 utc, which would be waypoint 4) thats forming right now south of them. This could become a very big system. Im sure they already know about this from their router and their own information on board. I wonder what action they will take tho.

(this will only work at the time of the actual posting, not later, but there is a 50% chance storm low forming in the northern caribbean heading the way LV will shortly be in a few days)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

I love all the stuff Im learning from this post like QTVLM (or whatever its name is), these route feature in Windy I did not know about, etc. Nice, nice.

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by gaucho

Your method allows us to see clearly how they might run into a very nasty low (look at Thursday 1500 utc, which would be waypoint 4) thats forming right now south of them. This could become a very big system.

Yes exactly, and Breaking Waves mentioned this earlier:

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

Based on current forecast I would want everything to be all set and ready by midnight (UTC) the 20th - winds forecast to build at 1:00 the 21st

(note that my Waypoints, ie: La Vagabonde's position, could easily be out by 50nm, so it's all a bit of a guesstimate, but nice to look at and think about).

I was just preparing some screenshots of what is suggested at some stage on Thursday.

The Wind (mid to high 30s, so could be gusting 50+):



The Waves (I see 5m there, starting to get up):

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by Auspicious

I've mostly been following this thread. I have a question I have not seen addressed. Is Greta Thunberg crew or passenger? Is she at least a baby sitter? Three effective crew or one-and-a-half?

I read a post ( I think it was from Nikki) that implied Greta was babysitting and Greta's dad was on galley and hot coffee/tea duty. I imagine Elayna is is batting relief for all positions.

She also mentioned that she (Nikki) and Riley were slowly working towards trust which I read as a sign that every one (so far) is being respectful of their various strengths and roles.

[jmh2002]

NB: if using the Windy Route that I posted earlier:

* You can right click anywhere on the screen and click "Show Weather Picker" to get the extra info flag that you see in my screenshots. This flag can also be dragged around the screen.

* You can also then close the Route Planner (red X at bottom left) to enable more info from the Weather Picker (click the yellow arrow on the picker).

* If you also now change to the Waves layer then that is how to display the Wave Swell direction arrows.

* The same technique with the Wind layer will show Wind arrows from each forecast model

Here are some more screenshots with the Wave Swell direction arrows:

Thur 19 Nov @ 1500 UTC



Thur 19 Nov @ 1900 UTC



And just for interest, the Wind arrows from each forecast model, also at 1500 UTC



You can see that period of time is on the edge of the change both in Wind and Swell.

If the forecast is correct the swell could go from Northerly 2m, to Southerly 4m over a period of a few hours.

La Vagabonde may end up with a very confused Sea State, as well even the possibility of the wind dropping to 10kn after the big blow has passed through.

Their actual Routing should help with better positioning though.

Hope this helps

[Terje Vigen]

Nikki Henderson just updated her Facebook.
Apparently, they have had much more beating into the wind, than the broad reaching conditions that we have assumed based on the weather models that we have seen...

Day 5

All is well on board La Vagabonde.

Yesterday and last night the conditions were pretty rough. It was another 24 hours of sailing into the wind which - any sailor will agree - is wet and slow. The wind spent the day being flukey - dying in the terrestrial rain that came with each cloud - changing direction and then filling again. Each cloud had a different pattern. So there was a lot of work changing the sail plans back and forth.

Last night then arrived - we had all been looking forward to a bit of relief - we were expecting fast reaching conditions (with the wind on our side or behind us). But the upwind sailing prevailed. It was like that moment you think you have gotten to the top of a hill, to find it was a false summit and there is still another ahead.

We all know there is nothing to do in these conditions than to pull together, be safe and just get on with it - but it still tests on emotions. We have been here five days now, but it feels like we haven’t actually made much progress towards Europe so the journey still seems long ahead. It was just one of those days!

I’d call today a ‘hump day’ for our team. Thankfully - as I am writing this - the wind is still strong. We are heavily reefed with the smallest mainsail we can get away with and barely any headsail. But the wind has tracked behind us and now La Vagabonde is rocketing along in the direction we would like. There is nothing like progress to put a smile on peoples faces - oh and a flat boat! (Everyone on land - enjoy your flat - stationary - beds and bathrooms and everything else flat today!!)

A few days ago it was my granny’s birthday. If she were alive still she would have been 101. Greta, Svante and I spent some time over sunset yesterday - when the clouds broke and the sun stunningly shone through - to reflect on how important grandparents are and how much we value or have valued their presence, their wisdom and their outlook in our lives. It’s comforting to share stories of home - of people you love.

[Breaking Waves]

They have had a hard start. This initial low got stalled/stopped by a high-pressure ridge and has just sat there getting bigger, including a crush zone on the side they are now sailing thru. And even when the winds backed they have had a persistent largish swell still on the bow, and shift/gusty/squally conditions. That creates a low of work and fatigue. So, I can well understand the frustration. I just hope they are all well and manage to keep morale up. . . . sending my best wishes to all on board.

I would think the low just stitting on them with squally/shift conditions and the persistent waves on the nose lead to a feeling of 'damn we just can't get a break here'.

My take is that the forecasts have been decently accurate - enough to provide a routing which they have in fact followed which allowed them to escape the low. They hit their first routed tacking point dead smack on, which suggests the wind angles were close to reality. And since they have been very close to the routing - just sailing persistently a bit more easterly that the routing, which suggests the winds have probably not been much more forward than predicted. And this first days angle data has been quite consistent across 3 independent models - usually, there is some notable inconsistency if there is a big accuracy concern. . . . but idk - it would not be the first time the current situation wind data was wrong mid-ocean.

Evening near term routing has no major surprises - looks like the morning one, and they are still tracking just a bit south of the routings.

One positive note, strong the 21st frontal system with secondary low gets 'unstalled' and starts moving away at pretty high speed. It moves away 10 degrees east between noon 21st to noon 22nd. Currently, it is expected to be out in front of them. If they go 'slowish' it will just more decisively move away in front of them, and if they go faster they still have the option to avoid it pretty much entirely - just sail up close behind it, and if needed park (and get sleep and a good meal) just before they get to it, and just let it go away if they want to.

21st


22nd

[Terje Vigen]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

...which suggests the winds have probably not been much more forward than predicted...

Well, when an experienced yachtswoman as Nikki Henderson says that they have been sailing "upwind" - "into the wind" - I choose to trust that she knows what she's talking about.
Can the explanation be that the resolution of the weather analysis on which our routing presumption is based is too low? And that a higher resolution weather analysis would have shown local circulations that caused them having to beat upwind when we thought they were on a broad reach?

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

I just hope they are all well and manage to keep morale up. . . . sending my best wishes to all on board.

I second that!

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

One positive note, strong the 21st frontal system with secondary low gets 'unstalled' and starts moving away at pretty high speed. It moves away 10 degrees east between noon 21st to noon 22nd. Currently, it is expected to be out in front of them. If they go 'slowish' it will just more decisively move away in front of them, and if they go faster they still have the option to avoid it pretty much entirely - just sail up close behind it, and if needed park (and get sleep and a good meal) just before they get to it, and just let it go away if they want to.

That makes sense. At 0700 GMT 19 November they're doing only 4.3 knots - maybe because they want that potentially nasty system down south to pass ahead of them.
I've been watching the NHC site the latest days. This morning they predict that there is a 70% chance that the disturbance east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles will develop into a tropical cyclone... (2 days ago this disturbance was marked with yellow, yesterday it was orange - and now it is red..)
A clear indication that there is quite a bit of uncertainty attached to the analyses produced by the weather professionals and their computers.

[conachair]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

Hope this helps

Interesting - feel free to keep it up! Interesting to see what might be a 'normal' cruising boat routing against the computers & professional routers.
This might help > https://tinyurl.com/wo9ed3n
Should open a download location widow which saves their progress per hour so far in a KML file - then you can import that to windy.com, upload kml file in the menu. Possibly contravening some copyright rules so don't tell -


And GFS for next week or so >

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by conachair

Interesting - feel free to keep it up!

This might help > https://tinyurl.com/wo9ed3n
Should open a download location widow which saves their progress per hour so far in a KML file - then you can import that to windy.com, upload kml file in the menu. Possibly contravening some copyright rules so don't tell

That's cool too, thanks (but we need a new kml file everyday please )

It also makes it easier to create this screenshot.

2m Swell from the West, and 1.5m Swell from the South East.

They are still going very slow (4kn boatspeed), so either have VERY confused seas, or maybe some problems onboard?

Or are they purposely slowing down to re-position themselves for the next Low Pressure?

[conachair]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

That's cool too, thanks (but we need a new kml file everyday please )

With a little python online >> https://www.pythonanywhere.com/ >>that file updates itself at every 15 minutes past the hour every hour with the latest position. Pity there's no wind info posted at the same time. Might be able to get some forecast data from their lat/long & time.
All very interesting though

[jmh2002]

Quick screenshot of their Actual Position vs the quick Route that I added on Windy (which was based on not much except throwing up some 170 to 200nm days heading roughly east towards the Azores).

I'll need to make a new route at some stage though, because I had them arriving at Waypoint 2 at 1500 UTC on Tuesday 19 Nov.

I didn't plan for them to only be doing 4kn though...

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

That's cool too, thanks (but we need a new kml file everyday please )

It also makes it easier to create this screenshot.

2m Swell from the West, and 1.5m Swell from the South East.

They are still going very slow (4kn boatspeed), so either have VERY confused seas, or maybe some problems onboard?

Or are they purposely slowing down to re-position themselves for the next Low Pressure?

Here we go.. Speculation about boat problems because boat speeds don't match the armchair theoretical projections.
This is one of the downsides to publicizing ones voyages.. imaginations run riot shoreside.
If they can post on Facebook I am pretty sure any boat related problems will appear pretty quickly.. in the meantime I would say it'll be down to sea state and local conditions.
Computer projections and modules may be great for the big picture but fail to show the mini systems that often pop up, some have already been covered down thread by Nikki's FB postings.
Drama queens..