La Vagabonde's crossing

[jmh2002]

Originally Posted by conachair

Google says facebook have stopped 3rd party apps posting so no facebook entries from onboard, seems twitter & instagram are possible so no great surprise that's what we see.

Well, some posts have been made to Facebook, so it doesn't seem to be a technical limitation, but it does all seem a bit haphazard and disorganised from their side.

[Auspicious]

Originally Posted by gaucho

Because they have very limited bandwith, so they are using text and a lowres picture vs posting ... videos? Remember they are using an Iridium GO, not a fullblown sat connection. Iridium GO has a way to post to IG and FB with the low bandwith.

Originally Posted by conachair

Google says facebook have stopped 3rd party apps posting so no facebook entries from onboard, seems twitter & instagram are possible so no great surprise that's what we see.

Facebook changed and restricted the old API that Iridium GO! used in their app. It's gone. Users are back to the old "send an email to someone ashore who posts on your behalf."

[Exile]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Oh.. The broken furling line which as stated is not a problem at the moment.. not a major hassle at all and an easy fix.
Thanks for the Troll comment by the way.. standard defence tactic..

Boatie deserving of the 'Troll' moniker? Nah, maybe other slights but not that one! Methinks he's just having flashbacks to the crazy thread that came about from his own Atlantic crossing awhile back.

I noticed the comment about hand steering during a period of 50-kt. gusts. To be expected on that boat (or any boat?) in such conditions?

[Terje Vigen]

Originally Posted by jmh2002

...updating their Official La Vagabonde Web site and Facebook page...

They have indeed been updating their Facebook. Latest update less than an hour ago:

Day 6. Last night we had a huge lightening storm and we turned off all electrics and put our sat phones in the oven. Lol. We had a gust to 40 - 50 knots (but the crew couldn’t tell exactly... because we turned all electrics off and we’re hand steering). It got seriously windy though. It’s a bit like a washing machine out here to tell you the truth but we’re hooning and La Vagabonde is loving it. We’re all really comfortable and feeling great. Everything’s salty and wet and we can’t get our clothes dry.. the bananas have ripened so we are going bananas on the bananas and also the bread. It’s banana, peanut butter and cinnamon sandwiches for breakfast today! #sailinglavagabonde

[Breaking Waves]

It looks like they are comfortable with their latitude and have just been heading east.



The 'optimal' routing still has them gaining more latitude. Gaining latitude is a marginal theoretical speed gain - but may in fact not be a speed gain at all because of rougher sea conditions.

They are already high enough to clear the near-term high-pressure systems light air and I guess they are looking for a bit lighter conditions.

I ran three routing scenarios, with three different target waypoints for the 23rd - the top (most northern) one is on the 'optimal' long term routing, the bottom one is just holding latitude heading east, and the middle one was placed to be slightly better positioned for the coming systems (systems after the 21st).



The lower two options stay together for handling the situation on the 21st, and only diverge after that. The highest routing is shown with the lowest peak winds for the 21st, but the highest sustained winds between now and then, while the lower two have a higher peak but a little more of a rest until then.

You can see the theoretical advantages for the top red route - higher average boat speed, more downwind angles, and lower max wind speed. With lower average wind speed on the lower two routes (which the routing program finds a disadvantage but the crew will be considered an advantage right now)



But the big factor in this choice is that I would rate all those details as relatively low confidence because the euro and gfs models still have a significant disagreement on this frontal/secondary low development. And you are looking at only a pretty marginal 3/4kts speed gain (when they are already choosing to not sail to their polars). A practical lesson routers have to learn is when there is low confidence in forecast details it is usually best to not try to be too clever and to chase marginal gains and take more certain near term benefits - so just going east for a bit is a reasonable choice, and going slowly also makes sense. This system has finally gotten unstuck and is moving away, and taking their time right now will allow it to move further away and they might just be able to give the whole thing a pass (slowing down and letting stuff pass in front is a quite effective routing option - much easier than trying to accelerate and get and stay in front of a system).

Just to call it out explicitly - heading east now is the first significant 'human skill input' adjustment to the routing.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Terje Vigen

They have indeed been updating their Facebook. Latest update less than an hour ago:

Explained the hand steering.

[Breaking Waves]

Here is what the picture looks like for the 21st with the 3 routes.

X marks their boat position - but that is assuming they are going 'regular speed', and I am expecting they will be behind these positions and further from the front.



personally for 'speed management', I generally prefer to sail 'regular speed' up decently close to a feature like this and then essentially park the boat and let it go by; rather than slowing down from a long distance off.

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by Terje Vigen

They have indeed been updating their Facebook. Latest update less than an hour ago:

I like the tone there - sounds like they are settling in and feeling a bit more comfortable with the sustained conditions. (ofc it may be 'PR' editing).

One thing that is hard to 'see' remotely is the 'squallyness' - you can see CAPE numbers and max gusts (which often seem understated) which both give you an indication but neither really tell you how squally/shifty it actually is.

[Terje Vigen]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

...and going slowly also makes sense. This system has finally gotten unstuck and is moving away, and taking their time right now will allow it to move further away and they might just be able to give the whole thing a pass (slowing down and letting stuff pass in front is a quite effective routing option - much easier than trying to accelerate and get and stay in front of a system).

Nikki Henderson also updated her Facebook - and as you can see, Breaking Waves is perfectly correct in anticipating their deliberately slowing down:

Day 6

So yesterday was amazing. We surfed at 10-15 knots all the way through the day. The sea state wasn’t too big despite it still blowing above 30 knots - which meant it was comfortable - and also faster because we didn’t sink down into the trough of too many big waves and stall. At the end of the storm we saw a rainbow glowing - so beautiful - the only colour in a sea of grey and black and white.

As the afternoon came in the wind started to ease and everything calmed down. It felt so good to make real ground east.

After poring over the weather we made the decision to intentionally slow down to ensure we miss the worst of the front ahead - we will be holding closer to 6 knots for a few more days. It’s an unfamiliar position for me to be in - when you are racing, the idea of intentionally slowing down is almost unheard of. It’s feels a bit like driving down the wrong side of the highway in my brain! And in my heart too - I sail for the freedom, for the self-autonomy - and being restricted to a certain speed feels very limiting.

But there is no doubt onboard - this is the right decision. It is safe and it is comfortable and these are without a doubt the priority. I have learned a lot from Riley - seeing how easily he made that decision - and how at peace he was with it once he made it. Unwavering confidence - and yet a humble openness to suggestion. Both qualities in my opinion that make an impeccable leader. It’s reminded me how important it is to take the backseat from being in charge; there is always more than one way to do something.

Overnight - with a slower boat we managed to sort a few jobs which put our minds at ease. Definitely something therapeutic for me about doing something productive. Neither of us engineers, but Riley and I managed to get our heads around fixing and re-running the furling line that had snapped a few days earlier - this required more than a few brain cells! Then another hour spent sorting an issue with a stiff steering cables. It seemed there was some plastic covering caught in a pulley! #singleuseplasticshouldbebanned

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Oh.. The broken furling line which as stated is not a problem at the moment.. not a major hassle at all and an easy fix.
Thanks for the Troll comment by the way.. standard defence tactic.. [emoji3][emoji3][emoji3]

Actually id suggest it was a problem if blowin 50k, life gets much harder with wind like that, repairing anything in that wind is hard. I wonder if hes ever experienced 50k+ before? most trade wind sailors never see that kind of wind . Id prefer not to leave the cockpit when its blowin that hard.

I was surprised just how much wind 50k is when i experienced it at sea, its not 20k more than 30k, it seems alot more......but i admit Im a tad more fragile than the average cruisers forum sailor

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Exile

Boatie deserving of the 'Troll' moniker? Nah, maybe other slights but not that one! [emoji3] Methinks he's just having flashbacks to the crazy thread that came about from his own Atlantic crossing awhile back.

I noticed the comment about hand steering during a period of 50-kt. gusts. To be expected on that boat (or any boat?) in such conditions?

When its blowin hard im behind the wheel, not always steering but im there, particularly when the boats starting to surf. Autopilots aren't perfect, ive had them break and struggle to hold course, dint want it happening at the wrong time.

When we type 50k it dosent do it justice , the world changes andcas someone said earlier once it drops to 25k it feels like nothing, crazy that relativity stuff.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Terje Vigen

They have indeed been updating their Facebook. Latest update less than an hour ago:

Hmmmm, we are all really comfortable, tberes some optimism [emoji3]

[Terje Vigen]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

I like the tone there - sounds like they are settling in and feeling a bit more comfortable with the sustained conditions.

Yes, I wholeheartedly agree!
It is a genuine pleasure to read the tone in their Facebook postings, not least the ones from Nikki Henderson, who is "feeling like driving down the wrong side of the highway"
I checked Greta Thunberg's Facebook, and she too has been updating regularly, also very positive, feeling very comfortable, catching a lot of sleep despite the bumpy conditions.
And of course, also spiced up with political climate related messages

Ooops: Please excuse me for breaching the OP's restrictions on climate related messages here

[atoll]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Actually id suggest it was a problem if blowin 50k, life gets much harder with wind like that, repairing anything in that wind is hard. I wonder if hes ever experienced 50k+ before? most trade wind sailors never see that kind of wind . Id prefer not to leave the cockpit when its blowin that hard.

I was surprised just how much wind 50k is when i experienced it at sea, its not 20k more than 30k, it seems alot more......but i admit Im a tad more fragile than the average cruisers forum sailor

wind speed is cubed ie X3,so yes a lot more than 20knots difference.
i see NOAA has now upgraded the low to the south with a 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression.
https://www.weathernerds.org/satelli...initascatb=Off

[Terje Vigen]

Originally Posted by atoll

i see NOAA has now upgraded the low to the south with a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression.

That was hours ago.
Say hello to Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...nd120#contents