La Vagabonde's crossing

[Terje Vigen]

At 0750 GMT 21 November, LA VAGABONDE is running on an almost Northerly course (006 degrees), making 8.7 knots...

...whereas Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN is doing almost the same, 800 nautical miles further south. The latest update from NHC (at 0900 GMT) estimates that the storm center is moving in 015 degrees at 7 knots. However, the NHC Forecaster underlines the large uncertainty: This is his "best guess".
Furthermore, the different weather models differ a lot! Quoting the NHC Forecaster:

Although the models agree on the overall scenario,
there are major along-track or speed differences among the models,
with the GFS/HWRF/HMON being the fastest solutions and the ECMWF
being the slowest. In fact, at 48 hours, the spread between the GFS
and ECMWF models is more than 700 n mi.

Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN is now forecasted to strengthen even more, reaching 70 knots max sustained winds in 24 hours:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 23.0N 61.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 24.5N 59.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 26.6N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 29.4N 52.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 32.4N 47.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 24/0600Z 38.6N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[Cherod]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

Oh, the finger wagging, the clucking of tongues and the wringing of hands. Where oh where is the "just go" crowd when you need them?

I tell you where they are , they are out there doing it while those who can’t pontificate as if they have crystal balls or an intimate knowledge of the mind of these individuals , quite frankly insulting to suggest that these people are risking their child’s life , their own and that of any crew / passengers for solely financial gain with no knowledge of what they are doing , shameful

[Breaking Waves]

routing remains consistent with prior (orange the latest one, purple prior, and grey 3 iterations ago)



Winds westerly shifting NWly as low moves over the top of them. Winds dropping into the teens over the next day.

They follow this shift around slowly steering more easterly, until next low crosses over the top. As next low approaches, winds shift back to SWly on 23rd, winds build back to 30 sustained on 24th and they gybe back northerly on 24th where they follow the process again (climb north a bit and then curve back east). Winds continue at 25ish into 25th

the subtropical low passes under and then ahead of them. It crosses their routing on the 23rd, but way in front of the boat's anticipated position (red X). Worth watching closely because it has 50kts flags, but right now not anticipated to be much of a routing influence (just not go too fast into it).

[Cherod]

Great work BW ,,, almost like being on the bridge !!

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by Cherod

Great work BW ,,, almost like being on the bridge !!

Ditto ..... Wish I had had all this wonderful weather intelligence and shore based advice when doing it in my day [emoji106]

Following the family of lows I pretty much depended on the 500mb reports on the weather fax to gauge their anticipated track [emoji20]

[Cherod]

Maybe they can hang a right soon and ride that westerly for a while , maybe “ pedal down “ right enough , go LaVag

[Terje Vigen]

Originally Posted by Cherod

Maybe they can hang a right soon and ride that westerly for a while , maybe “ pedal down “ right enough , go LaVag

The last position report (10:50 GMT) showed LA VAGABONDE heading east (course 086 degrees), with the pedal half down (SOG 8.4 knots).
They are now approximately on the same latitude as the Gibraltar Strait.

[Breaking Waves]

^^ yup

They have actually been sailing a bit faster than I expected. I was thinking 6-7ish knots and they have been doing over 8.

That allowed them to sail back into the SWly winds.

I imagine as the low moves further east, they will get a more persistent shift, that they can not outrun, and will flop back on the other jybe.

It must be nice to bag good extra miles to the east.

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Ditto ..... Wish I had had all this wonderful weather intelligence and shore based advice when doing it in my day [emoji106]

Following the family of lows I pretty much depended on the 500mb reports on the weather fax to gauge their anticipated track [emoji20]

yea, a few nights ago I was actually specifically thinking about what this passage would have been like 'back in the day'. We really only had the HF high seas forecasts and cruiser nets. Only the 'fancy boats', which we were not, had wefax machines. We would beg wefax print outs from them when planning departures.

And simply getting a decent position fix would have been some work given the conditions they have been in.

To a degree 'ignorance was bliss'. Really, I think there was less overall stress, because we just did not know and knew we could not know, so you just dealt with whatever happened.

I figure I would have gotten hammered perhaps twice so far.

[Breaking Waves]

must be glorious sailing atm - 16/17kts (sustained), with seas and wind both aft, 9.6kts boat speed. I think the nicest conditions they have had.

If they keep up this speed they can keep east for a while before wind shift overtakes them again.

[Macblaze]

Nikki's latest—sounds like smoother sailing?

Day 9

Well 2 am brought a monumental moment for us on our journey so far - we made it through the cold front!! The wind has started to shift from the south round to the west. It feels quite a relief.

Just as forecast, we spent the last 24 hours or so in gusty conditions - blowing 30 up to 45 knots from behind us. Thankfully the waves were not bad at all probably due to the fact that we kept ourselves south. But the rain on the other hand - wow - I’m British and even I thought that was a lot of rain ... everything is soaked - we have got to the stage where you barely have to wash you hands and your fingertips turn back to something closer to a prune.

When you sail in cold weather - or big winds - there are a few comforts that make it all so much more manageable. For me, nothing beats a hot cup of tea - even better when shared with friends. There has been a lot of those going round over the past few days - friends and hot drinks - which is no mean feat when you are sailing in 45 knots and there is no kettle! Just a pan, and a steady hand.

[conachair]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

yea, a few nights ago I was actually specifically thinking about what this passage would have been like 'back in the day'. We really only had the HF high seas forecasts and cruiser nets. Only the 'fancy boats', which we were not, had wefax machines. We would beg wefax print outs from them when planning departures.

And simply getting a decent position fix would have been some work given the conditions they have been in.

To a degree 'ignorance was bliss'. Really, I think there was less overall stress, because we just did not know and knew we could not know, so you just dealt with whatever happened.

I figure I would have gotten hammered perhaps twice so far.

Would be interesting , but maybe near impossible to actually quantify, how different LaVag routing would have been just working off Wfax available out there ...

Wind speed probabilities can be intereting as well --
https://ocean.weather.gov/prob_guida...plot=30&loop=0

https://ocean.weather.gov/prob_guida...plot=30&loop=0

[Cherod]

Sounds great , a long way from the pessimistic comment from a member the other day about Riley getting fed up with Greta !! ( or to that affect )

[Cherod]

The routing is amazing , they really are in a seeet spot with strong winds all around them . She is a canny chook indeed that Niki one !!

[Breaking Waves]

>>"When you sail in cold weather - or big winds - there are a few comforts that make it all so much more manageable."

They are going to get colder night watches here soon - northerly winds and being further north.

It's a vivid memory from various N Atlantic passages - some nights bitterly cold and some others quite pleasant for no particular obvious rhyme or reason.

Any of you experts at windy.com - can you get actual nighttime low temps for offshore positions?