La Vagabonde's crossing

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Dave_S

I've read a few days worth in one go so this comment is a bit dated but going back to the furler. I have noticed in their videos that they sit forward on the tramp to furl rather than from back at the helm so maybe the route the line takes back to the helm is not the best and could be a reason the line failed ?

I'm enjoying the thread, thanks.

Its a single line furler.. being a continuous loop they don't run back to the cockpit as a rule one has to go forward to operate them.
Thats been the case on all the ones I have used.

[atoll]

Originally Posted by StuM

Or just right click in Windy and compare the coordinates displayed to the tracker coordinates, then start moving the mouse in the appropriate direction and keep right cllcking until you are close enough

looks like magic to me getting both pages up at once on the same screen
havent quite worked out how these windows work,will have to ask a teenager

[Terje Vigen]

Originally Posted by Cherod

thanks BW,, and then they could be cruising in a nice westerly up towards the Azores somewhere ?

Shall we guess that they'll pass north of the Azores (and of the remnants of TS SEBASTIEN) in one weeks time?
And that they'll arrive in Lisbon (Cascais Roads) one short week later?
They did some good progress today. In particular between 9 and 10 pm (GMT), with 10 knots VMG (Velocity Made Good) towards Lisbon.

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Its a single line furler.. being a continuous loop they don't run back to the cockpit as a rule one has to go forward to operate them.
Thats been the case on all the ones I have used.

They can be setup to run back to the cockpit, np.

The vendee boat do it, especially ones with “structural” stays.

Our code furler (facnor) lines go all the way back.

Just need decently clean run, and custom length furling loop, so things don’t get tangled.

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by Terje Vigen

Shall we guess that they'll pass north of the Azores (and of the remnants of TS SEBASTIEN) in one weeks time?
And that they'll arrive in Lisbon (Cascais Roads) one short week later?
They did some good progress today. In particular between 9 and 10 pm (GMT), with 10 knots VMG (Velocity Made Good) towards Lisbon.

let's say 1130nm to Azores (Horta) and 2150nm to Lisbon?

Really hard to know what average speed to assume. A problem I am having with the routing - most difficult polar tuning I remember ever having. Usually, I have contact with the crew so know what they are trying to accomplish.

8kts .... 6 days to Azores and 11 days to Lisbon. Perhaps a bit slower and a day longer?

[smj]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Its a single line furler.. being a continuous loop they don't run back to the cockpit as a rule one has to go forward to operate them.

Thats been the case on all the ones I have used.

We’ve had 3 cats with continuous line furlers and they’ve all led back to the cockpit. Can’t see why they wouldn’t.

[Morgali]

As someone who's never crossed the atlantic on anything....

I just read that they are predicting that tropical storm Sebastien is forcast to become a hurricane as it proceeds northeasterly. Could this turn into a problem for them?

[atoll]

Originally Posted by Morgali

As someone who's never crossed the atlantic on anything....

I just read that they are predicting that tropical storm Sebastien is forcast to become a hurricane as it proceeds northeasterly. Could this turn into a problem for them?

only if it tracks north or northwest,which it is not expected to,and even then they could run away from it given enough notice from a reliable weather forcast source which they have

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by Morgali

I just read that they are predicting that tropical storm Sebastien is forcast to become a hurricane as it proceeds northeasterly. Could this turn into a problem for them?

Hmmm...how to answer .....

yes it could possibly be a problem.

With the current predicated most likely track it will not be.

But such predication have a lot of uncertainty in them, and if it does something different (go more northerly direction) it could pose a problem.

[Breaking Waves]

They seem to have turned back more easterly, at 10kts.

I am surprised by the course because it looks to be almost DDW, an angle which they usually don’t sail.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Morgali

As someone who's never crossed the atlantic on anything....

I just read that they are predicting that tropical storm Sebastien is forcast to become a hurricane as it proceeds northeasterly. Could this turn into a problem for them?

If they had left a couple of days later it certainly could have. I believe it’s expected to be a Hurricane now.

[Breaking Waves]

their course has turned more easterly, and 10kts.

The course is a bit odd because it looks like DDW, which is an angle they usually don't sail. Might be in a local wind band, or running off to fix/change sails.

Excellent for miles made good in any case.

[Breaking Waves]

Just looking into next week.

This sure looks more attractive than what they have had to deal with this week.

Nice simple 'green brick' highway to follow.

[Terje Vigen]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

If they had left a couple of days later it certainly could have. I believe it’s expected to be a Hurricane now.

Not any more, fortunately
According to the latest forecast from the NHC in Miami, Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN will not develop into a Hurricane after all. Max sustained winds is expected to be 55 knots, only for a short period during the next 12-24 hours, after which the system will weaken.
As mentioned frequently in previous posts by many here: There is a lot of uncertainty on future behavior of tropical cyclones in general, and this certainly also goes for TS SEBASTIEN.
The "forecast.predictwind.com" service has a nifty functionality, allowing you to split the screen, and to simulate the weather pattern as it progresses during the following week - with different weather models in the two panes. This image shows the situation on Sunday afternoon (GMT), and it illustrates both the uncertainty and the divergence between the different weather models:
In the left pane, is the American GFS model. The subtropical remnants of what used to be Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN "hits" the Azores (and later joins the big low pressure systems heading for the Biscay and Western Europe).
The European ECMWF model in the right hand pane shows the TS SEBASTIEN moving very much slower towards NE. This model anticipates that the system will never cross the High ridge that will develop as band from West to East next week across the Azores, and that it will more or less die hundred of miles south of the islands.


Unfortunately, I haven't figured out how to execute this split screen functionality in the PredictWind service that displays the position and progress of LA VAGABONDE. (The green dots in the two panes should be disregarded. They are not the position of LA VAGABONDE)

[Pelagic]

I am just blown away by how well you guys can display this weather prognosis data for different Met Agencies and monitor/compare for confidence levels.... Thanks Terje