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Exile · 22-11-2019, 16:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

It would depend a lot on exact dates and details of the hypothetical forecast change.

But (in this part of the Atlantic) I would always prefer to be behind and to the west of any forecast track. I prefer to use slowing or stopping as a tactic rather than trying to 'outrun' a system. I would prefer to aim for the (forecast) center (or side opposite the TS) of a high-pressure system to use it as a shield. Sometimes none of that is available and all you can do is try to do is get on the 'navigatable semicircle' side of the TS and maximize your CPA.

Generic Maneuvering (eg without including details of the bigger synoptic systems) to avoid an imminent TS is well covered/documented in maritime literature.

You really should read Bowditch (one of the greatest collection of seamanship in existence - is dry reading and some of the electronics aids information is dated, but damn it contains knowledge all seamen should know by heart). You can skip to chapter 36 "Tropical Cyclones", which has a subsection "Avoiding Tropical Cyclones"

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I understand the basics of trying to anticipate getting W or behind the storm, but I recall LV sailing in strong (prevailing) westerlies at the time. Given the uncertainties of the track, they obviously wouldn't want to try and get ahead of it, couldn't really backtrack into the wind, and putting on the brakes could have put them directly in its path. As someone else pointed out at the time, if they had left a few days later . . . . One of the risks that time of year I suppose.

Breaking Waves · 22-11-2019, 16:59

[QUOTE=Exile;3021441] I recall LV sailing in strong (prevailing) westerlies at the time. [QUOTE]

You can (or should be able to) always make some progress to windward. So, perhaps going NWly, even if slowly, would have put them on the right side and further away?

The details do matter. If you want to go back and pick out a specific date I would be happy to look and discuss.

This TS was always forecast to be relatively compact, so you did not need to clear it by much.

But, Yea, it is still hurricane season. They do happen in November. We got brushed by one (lenny I think) in Antigua in November. and sometimes there is just not much you can do if you are there.

Exile · 22-11-2019, 17:30

[QUOTE=Breaking Waves;3021446][QUOTE=Exile;3021441] I recall LV sailing in strong (prevailing) westerlies at the time.

Quote:

You can (or should be able to) always make some progress to windward. So, perhaps going NWly, even if slowly, would have put them on the right side and further away?

The details do matter. If you want to go back and pick out a specific date I would be happy to look and discuss.

This TS was always forecast to be relatively compact, so you did not need to clear it by much.

But, Yea, it is still hurricane season. They do happen in November. We got brushed by one (lenny I think) in Antigua in November. and sometimes there is just not much you can do if you are there.

Right. Which is why some are concerned that LV is there. On the other hand, early to mid-June is a popular time to sail from the US e. coast to Bermuda, and from the Carib to the US e. coast, but June 1st marks the beginning of the hurricane season. Maybe even more rare than Nov. but still the season. Maybe more prudent from mid-April through May.

For US e. coast sailors leaving the mid-Atlantic for Bermuda/Carib in the Fall, Nov. 1st is typically the earliest their insurance cos. will allow them to leave. But Nov. 1st also marks the (unofficial) beginning of the often unpredictable N. Atlantic gale season, and so the focus is usually not on potential TS's which are usually more predictable in advance.

No guarantees of course, there is always inherent risk. But many manage this risk by never sailing during the storm season. For them, there is enough risk inherent with offshore sailing generally, and so what might seem like bravado & courage to some is viewed as mere foolhardiness by others. Perhaps this explains some of the concerns & critiques with LV's decision more than anything else.

Breaking Waves · 22-11-2019, 18:21

As i tried to say, I get it.

I get the opinion that this is an undue risk.

But I also get the opinion that it is a great challenge, cause and /or business opportunity.

I am comfortable with the fact that intelligent informed people can hold either opinion.

I think both opinions have been expressed adequately here, and I think intelligent informed mature people should be willing to agree to disagree and move on.

I personally don't much care about the question. I'm interested in what can be learned from the sailing.

Exile · 22-11-2019, 18:45

A short video of Greta and (presumably) her father boarding LV at the start of the trip.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YB_2aEyFxEM

marty9876 · 22-11-2019, 19:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

I personally don't much care about the question. I'm interested in what can be learned from the sailing.

Me too! Thanks you for all your post in this thread, please keep them coming as I’m really valuing the education from watching this passage in real time with the weather and routing discussion.

OldKetch · 22-11-2019, 21:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by sebbiep

As this thread has been debating (albeit from afar) the safety decisions made by the LaVag crew, here's a couple of small factual corrections to previous posts:

The LaVag team stated that they spent 7 days preparing the boat - i.e. not the 3 days being quoted throughout this thread.

On Day 3 Elayna wrote that "A week ago we were cruising the Chesapeake, thinking we had a month to get down to Charleston for the winter"
https://www.instagram.com/p/B46qezyh_wc/

Looks like a contradiction to me. It may also suggest that a bit of colouring was used now and then.

Pelagic · 22-11-2019, 21:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cherod

Pelagic ,, where have you been ????????

Pulling my masts for safety check and painting.......I'm too old to enjoy that from a Bosuns chair.

Sojourner · 22-11-2019, 23:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by daletournier

What rubbish, the fact is on rather short notice they undertook a passage into a active hurricane zone, on a schedule that's just a fact...Taking unnecessary risks like out of season passage making is not good seamanship regardless of the course, this was a unnecessary voyage. A nice happy ending and a good story dosent make it a wise decision....Are you saying sailing in a active hurricane zone on a schedule with a very small child and a not so small child is wise? answer the question honestly.

I agree. Once you decide to have a child, good parents forfeit the right to make decisions purely selfishly, which is why the three of us are, and will always be, child free....we would not wish to give up the ability to live as we please in all ways just for a kid, so no kid. Easy decision.

I am a vocal spokesperson of doing as you please in life according to the sentiment: Enjoy yourself and be kind. But this implies agency, something an infant does NOT have. As long as it is consensual adults, knock yourselves out, literally if you must. Taking a child into a fairly uncertain situation is not good seamanship, or parenting. They should absolutely have left the kid with the grandparents and done the sail.

jmh2002 · 23-11-2019, 01:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

I think both opinions have been expressed adequately here, and I think intelligent informed mature people should be willing to agree to disagree and move on.

I personally don't much care about the question. I'm interested in what can be learned from the sailing.

In case it was missed, I think this is Breaking Waves' way of politely suggesting (for the 3rd or 4th time) that the discussion moves back on topic to the sailing, the weather, and the routing...

Let's respect that and move on.

OldKetch · 23-11-2019, 01:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by sebbiep

As this thread has been debating (albeit from afar) the safety decisions made by the LaVag crew, here's a couple of small factual corrections to previous posts:

The LaVag team stated that they spent 7 days preparing the boat - i.e. not the 3 days being quoted throughout this thread.

Factual correction to the factual correction:

According to Elayna's post on Day 3 "A week ago we were cruising the Chesapeake, thinking we had a month to get down to Charleston for the winter." https://www.instagram.com/p/B46qezyh_wc/

Difficult to see how they managed to squeeze in 7 days of preparation into 3 days.

Cherod · 23-11-2019, 01:31

Stil the middle of the night for them and winds have fallen considerably , but still showing 7 knots of speed in 12 knots of wind , I gues the sea state is somewhat smoother than previously . Looks like some period of relative calm ness for a while