La Vagabonde's crossing

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by Auspicious

Y'all have looked at the NOAA Atlantic brief that shows the fronts, right?

so weather technique and tools discussion . . . . .

Are you seriously telling me you cannot see where the fronts are on the top image and need someone to draw them in for you? Hint, they are exactly where you would think - at the strong wind and wind direction boundaries which are really nicely colored And if someone somehow does not understand weather systems enough to be able to see those, you can get nice histograms which tell you exactly when the fronts pass your route.

Routing this passage just for instance . . . . there has been zero difficultly seeing days ahead where the frontal passages will be. See posts several above where I describe the next couple of days.



We all used static synoptic pictures like the bottom one 25 years ago. And yea, sure you can still use them. But #1 you then can't use any of the modern weather analysis/routing tools that have been developed the past quarter decade. And #2 you can not zoom in and see the anticipated close in details, which not accurate 25 years ago but is in fact now pretty damn accurate (like right now, within a half degree, how low can they go and still hang onto wind in 2 days). And #3 you have more difficulty assessing the confidence of the forecast - than when you have the ability to have multiple models and multiple time series overlayed. And confidence level is an essential part of routing - as an aside I really wish the weather service would 'publish' the confidence analytics which they already produce for in house use.

If people want to look at static synoptic charts to confirm their understanding, that's great - I encourage it as you do, they are a helpful learning tool for beginners . . . . but I personally think you are doing sailors a significant disservice by denigrating the more modern and powerful tools which have been developed the past 25 years. This passage would have been ALOT more difficult to carefully and accurately route without the modern tools.

[Terje Vigen]

Originally Posted by Patg

Hitting a floating object with 10kts is really a bad thing to do. But I guess it wouldn't cause too much harm to an Outremer. The daggeboards are constructed to be sacrificial, their housing is strongly reinforced, so they could probably continue they voyage.

Not only the daggerboards. The boats are also fitted with "protective keels/skegs" in front of the saildrives/rudders, that also are constructed to be sacrificial.
As one can read more about on this blog:
https://sailwildling.com/2018/09/08/we-lost-a-keel/

Originally Posted by Patg

The outremer cats are really made for bluewater cruising, lots of safety features and absolutely seaworthy.

Jean-Pierre Balmès sailed a simliar boat (4X) single handed on the last
Route du Rhum Race from Saint-Malo (France) to Guadeloupe through
terrible storms in the atlantic (50kts sustained the first few days) and
finished 5th out of 21 in the RhumMulti class.

That's quite impressive! ...And reassuring!

[Terje Vigen]

Originally Posted by Auspicious

Y'all have looked at the NOAA Atlantic brief that shows the fronts, right? No one seems to care about those but me

What? ???

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by atoll

good news is they are now,or will be soon within the range of the rescue services if they need airlifting off the cat.
lots of migrating whales in the area around the azores at this time of year,it would not end well hitting one at 10 knots with the boards down.

apologies , again , for any perceived transtangentering

That was one of our concerns approaching the Azores...we played the stereo and then winds lightened as we got closer so motor sailed partially to make noise.

We never got close to any whales, but did see some blows in the distance.

[conachair]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

so weather technique and tools discussion . . . . .

Are you seriously telling me you cannot see where the fronts are on the top image and need someone to draw them in for you? Hint, they are exactly where you would think - at the strong wind and wind direction boundaries which are really nicely colored And if someone somehow does not understand weather systems enough to be able to see those, you can get nice histograms which tell you exactly when the fronts pass your route.

Routing this passage just for instance . . . . there has been zero difficultly seeing days ahead where the frontal passages will be.

100%.

Plus OpenCPN is worth mention as being another excellent tool for weather, for those who can't see the fronts on a grib then overlaying a synoptic can be very interesting, though with the grib you'll have much more info about how grumpy the front will be.

[atoll]

Originally Posted by Patg

Hitting a floating object with 10kts is really a bad thing to do. But I guess
it wouldn't cause too much harm to an Outremer. The daggeboards are
constructed to be sacrificial, their housing is strongly reinforced, so
they could probably continue they voyage.

The outremer cats are really made for bluewater cruising, lots of
safety features and absolutely seaworthy.

Jean-Pierre Balmès sailed a simliar boat (4X) single handed on the last
Route du Rhum Race from Saint-Malo (France) to Guadeloupe through
terrible storms in the atlantic (50kts sustained the first few days) and
finished 5th out of 21 in the RhumMulti class.

how many times did he hit a whale in his outremer,or is this just speculation that the boat would have been undamaged had he hit a whale

there will be plenty of whales migrating south around the azores,and towards the european coast at this time of year,i do hope they are keeping a good visual watch,and not just watching the ais from indoors.

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by conachair

Plus OpenCPN

yes, definitely.

OpenCPN is something else that has been on my 'to learn' list. I have dipped my toe in but not spent enough time to want to do a full routing with it yet.

I was under the impression that the ZYGrib folks (a great free grib downloader/viewer) and the QtVlm folks (the free routing program I am using here) and the OpenCPN folks collaborate together - is that right? In any case, I greatly respect each team and really appreciate their contributions to the collective well being and safety.

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

We never got close to any whales, but did see some blows in the distance.

We once had a mother and kid whale play around our boat near the Azores. The would swim along quite close and dive under and turn upside down (so you could see their belly) and look at the boat and then come up on the other side. They treated us with kid gloves like we were very fragile.

Also near here, we did wake up, or at least startle, a really big sperm. It shook and flapped its tail, which would not have ended well if it had actually hit us . . . but it did not.

Overall the ocean whales have always treated us very well. I know some have been aggressive to other boats and I always wonder what caused that. I remember in a game park in S Africa there was an elephant which was attacking cars. The park rangers darted him and discovered he had a very bad toothache. They fixed it and he settled down into a lovable elephant again.

[Matt Johnson]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

We once had a mother and kid whale play around our boat near the Azores. The would swim along quite close and dive under and turn upside down (so you could see their belly) and look at the boat and then come up on the other side. They treated us with kid gloves like we were very fragile.

Also near here, we did wake up, or at least startle, a really big sperm. It shook and flapped its tail, which would not have ended well if it had actually hit us . . . but it did not.

Overall the ocean whales have always treated us very well. I know some have been aggressive to other boats and I always wonder what caused that. I remember in a game park in S Africa there was an elephant which was attacking cars. The park rangers darted him and discovered he had a very bad toothache. They fixed it and he settled down into a lovable elephant again.

Is aggression really the main concern? We've had them playing around the boat too, but these are the times that they know we are there, and I haven't been too concerned. We did hit a sleeping (assumed) whale coming from the Canaries to Caribbean with our old boat. Not fun at 5 knots, so I know it wouldn't be great to do it at 10, but it still wouldn't be at the top of the list of worries on this trip.

Matt

[atoll]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

We once had a mother and kid whale play around our boat near the Azores. The would swim along quite close and dive under and turn upside down (so you could see their belly) and look at the boat and then come up on the other side. They treated us with kid gloves like we were very fragile.

Also near here, we did wake up, or at least startle, a really big sperm. It shook and flapped its tail, which would not have ended well if it had actually hit us . . . but it did not.

Overall the ocean whales have always treated us very well. I know some have been aggressive to other boats and I always wonder what caused that. I remember in a game park in S Africa there was an elephant which was attacking cars. The park rangers darted him and discovered he had a very bad toothache. They fixed it and he settled down into a lovable elephant again.

october-november is the main winter migratory period for whales, their route between the portugese coast,to and around the azores.

i doubt a whale would be able to submerge fast enough to avoid a cat hissing along at 10 knots,in these instances only a watch close to the helm where fast evasive action is needed suffices.

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by atoll

only a watch close to the helm where fast evasive action is needed suffices.

Honestly, at least in my experience, a 'close watch' would have to be pretty lucky to see a (slightly submerged) sleeping whale, in front of them, in any sort of sea. They don't stand out. And at night/dusk, no way at all.

We would perhaps see them as we passed.

It would be an interesting statistical risk question - sleeping whales vs containers. But we have done some miles and never actually hit either, and don't know anyone personally/directly who has, so I guess both risks are down the probability list.

edit: ah I guess that is wrong . . . . Steven Callahan, we have not seen him for years but did know him in the old days. He hit something . . . well south of here . . . if I remember he did not actually know what holed him but he suspected a whale.

[Breaking Waves]

on LV, their boat speed has been better since they have gotten into more settle conditions with better wave patterns. Still not absolutely blazing sustained well over 200 mile/day style fast, but quite decently good for a loaded cruising boat.

They do drop speed at night, which is prudent, especially with their crew contingent. You need to keep it up at night if you want to do really high sustained days.

[Breaking Waves]

Sunday Dec 1st - that is impressive, that is a really BIG low.



Covering from NYC to the Azores.

It looks like it will not cause any major issues by the time it gets to LV position (high-pressure system pushes it north), but still, damn that is a big system.

It may drive Sly/SWly winds on their landfall, which will be something to starting keeping in mind for routing - dont want to have to be too hard upwind for the finish.

[Cherod]

Originally Posted by atoll

october-november is the main winter migratory period for whales, their route between the portugese coast,to and around the azores.

i doubt a whale would be able to submerge fast enough to avoid a cat hissing along at 10 knots,in these instances only a watch close to the helm where fast evasive action is needed suffices.

i asume you would fit them with night vision gogles

[atoll]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

Honestly, at least in my experience, a 'close watch' would have to be pretty lucky to see a (slightly submerged) sleeping whale, in front of them, in any sort of sea. They don't stand out. And at night/dusk, no way at all.

We would perhaps see them as we passed.

It would be an interesting statistical risk question - sleeping whales vs containers. But we have done some miles and never actually hit either, and don't know anyone personally/directly who has, so I guess both risks are down the probability list.

edit: ah I guess that is wrong . . . . Steven Callahan, we have not seen him for years but did know him in the old days. He hit something . . . well south of here . . . if I remember he did not actually know what holed him but he suspected a whale.

well statistically, this time of year (oct-nov) and the spring (april-may) are the most likely times you will see whales migrating south or north AT the lattitude of the azores.

add the fact that they are going west to east,and the whales are moving north to south,presenting a broadside of roughly 50-60 feet or longer as they travel in pods of 2-3 or more and there are probably about 15000 of them migrating ,and as you say virtually undetectable at night.

where as container loss is generally well reported and sightings published in notices to mariners along with the navtex high seas forcast,and the high season for loss of containers in the north atlantic has not really started yet from winter storms.

i would say the risk is considerably greater of a whale strike than a container strike