La Vagabonde's crossing

[fxykty]

Originally Posted by conachair

100%.



Plus OpenCPN is worth mention as being another excellent tool for weather, for those who can't see the fronts on a grib then overlaying a synoptic can be very interesting, though with the grib you'll have much more info about how grumpy the front will be.

I’m very curious where you get the digital synoptic chart and what format to display in OpenCPN. Also, I’m mostly in the SW Pacific and our sources of Synoptics are much more limited than what you get for the N Atlantic. Are Synoptic charts available via Saildocs or if not what source(s)? Thanks.

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by fxykty

I’m mostly in the SW Pacific
Are Synoptic charts available via Saildocs or if not what source(s)

I gave you a link to new zealands in the other thread. Here is I think a starter page to australia's.

Pacific Ocean MSLP Analysis

[Breaking Waves]

well, after just writing that LV sailed slow(er) at night, they are now doing +9kts all night. Everyone must be rested and feeling good.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by Cherod

regarding Gretas education, you may want to check on her considerable achievments and qualifications already gained,,

Please enlighten us.


My google-** is usually pretty good, but I can't find any educational achievements or qualifications for her apart from having very recently graduated from Grade 9 - the end of "compulsory lower secondary education" in Sweden.

[Breaking Waves]

I hope everyone is safe in the Azores. They are getting a bit of wind atm, not terrible but 40ish kts. I see one 50kt flag.

pls put discussion of G's education on one of the other threads, unless it is sailing classes you are talking about.

[Matt Johnson]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

I hope everyone is safe in the Azores. They are getting a bit of wind atm, not terrible but 40ish kts. I see one 50kt flag.

pls put discussion of G's education on one of the other threads, unless it is sailing classes you are talking about.

If 40knts is a problem, then they are in the wrong place this time of year. It seems like we saw 40s+ once a week last winter in the Azores (Sao Miguel and Terceira)- probably not in reality, but it was almost as often. Now I wouldn't want to be sailing around there during that, but the marinas all have such tall breakwaters that it feels like 15 on deck.

Matt

[Cherod]

above the 40 N mark this morning ( 3 am for them ) with 9 knts boat speed in 20 knts following wind ,, looks good , maybe decided to get a bit of a move on ..

[Poa]

I see them managing 9-10kn this (early) morning, if things go well they could try to get another 200NM day.
Fingers crossed...


Further south, wind conditions are looking favorable for ARC and ARC+ that got underway.

[Cherod]

And continuing into higher latitudes

[atoll]

The snowflakes must be getting cold ,and i bet Greta has run out of colouring in books .

[Auspicious]

Quoting me and then editing what I wrote inline makes responding to you a real chore. Is that your intent? To make discussion difficult?

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

/graphic inserted/

OPC shows the 1004 mb spot as a Low (I call those a 'Low by courtesy') with pretty big Highs East and West and an occluded front running southwest to what you show as a ridge. I agree with OPC for reasons below. Were it not for the front I would agree with you that three Highs would reflect a ridge (distributed area of high pressure). The occluded front changes the nature of weather features which properly changes the vocabulary.

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

The quantified data of which is (mostly) baked into the models already.

Absolutely not. Ensembles for starters. As a review, we KNOW the input data to the models is wrong. We don't know for sure how wrong, but a standard error analysis gives us some reasonable sense of ɛ. Long term statistical evaluation has led to standard sets of model runs in which the input data is adjusted from that measured as a sensitivity analysis to bound uncertainty. There are 21 standard ensembles for GFS and 50 ensembles for ECMWF. None of that is "baked into the models already." Overhead imagery (visual, IR, radar) is provided to the meteorologist. Conclusions from that are not "baked into the models already." VOS provides baseline data that is used to calibrate the model output that is not "baked into the models already" for the products we see.

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

Comparing GFS and Euro is very very straightforward.I DO NOT need to understand the details of algorithms to readily identify when there is consistency/confidence and when there is not. I am not trying to pick one, I am trying to identify when I can do 'clever' routing close to systems, and when I should not.

It sounds like you are confusing precision and accuracy.

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

We are looking at 1/4 or 1/2 degree gfs and 9km euro data - there is just no way to even approach that sort of detail with an ocean level synoptic chart. And it works - you can position a boat remarkably accurately, the racers do it with remarkable effect - ofc not all the time, sometimes even the current conditions are just wrong, but you are not going to get it any of the time with an ocean level chart.

Sure I can. I can interpolate as well as the models can.

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

well, I have actually been doing day to day routing here on this specific voyage - have you?

Nope. I'm content to look at the weather and see what choices La Vagabonde made.

I do plenty of routing for myself and customers. That's enough practice for me.

Incidentally, you've neglected the significant wind shifts that happen at fronts. The models don't show those either. NOAA, UK Met, DWE products adjust the wind forecasts for that. We also haven't talked about eddies and other ocean currents which are of some substance for an Atlantic crossing in the mid latitudes. We can look at DEOS data or use RTOFS or OSCAR gribs. There is no better information than the sea water temperature from a depth sounder. La Vagabonde has better data than we do. Of course that applies to just about everything as they can look out the window. The line of dark clouds they describe dancing with are exemplary.

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

Bottom line - you are doing the cruising community a disservice by casually dismissing current modern tools the way you do.

I suggest the disservice is implying greater merit to the tools than exists. The tools suffer from the same shortfall as pilot charts. We only have data from where the ships go. Similarly, if you defer to model guidance and tool direction you don't really know if another choice might not have been better. This applies across the board. Some sailors will prefer winds 8 to 10 kts; others of us much prefer 15 to 20 kts.

Originally Posted by atoll

so i guess it comes down to what you call being on watch and peoples reliance on auto pilots.

we never really had that level of watch keeping ,as we mostly hand steered on the last 2 circumnavigations.

What I observe is that many people get tunnel vision when hand steering. They focus so much on the task of steering that the quality of the watch deteriorates. As others have noted cumulative fatigue is also a factor. I generally prefer autopilots although they come with their own detriments, most significant of which is dropping into standby when overloaded; the alarm is rarely loud enough and many watchstanders don't respond quickly enough. Wind vanes are lovely as they explicitly encourage balanced sail trim. No perfect answers - 'you pays your money and takes your choice.'

[Poa]

If you're bothered by a troll, just click the user's name and then on "Add ... to your ignore list". Works for me.


La Vagabonde is now in the GMT-3 timezone. At 40 N 42 W sunrise occurs at 7:49am and the sun sets at 5:23pm.

Once they reach 38 W time switches to GMT-2. Lisbon is at GMT+0.


I wonder why they are still heading north (course 72°). They wind gap that is approaching from the west could be avoided a bit further south.

[Auspicious]

Originally Posted by StuM

I can't find any educational achievements or qualifications for her apart from having very recently graduated from Grade 9 - the end of "compulsory lower secondary education" in Sweden.

I agree with you. Without a good education there would be no La Vagabonde, no weather forecasts, no satellite communication.

Real boat kids are often very well educated. Home schooling can be very productive, and boating--particularly passagemaking--provides real world applications that help motivate kids, especially in STEM. Sixth grade (US) science is enough to understand using a voltmeter to figure out why the refrigerator isn't cold. Weather forecasting relates directly to data collection and analysis. Most of us twirled sling psychrometers because we were told to; boat kids know why it's important.

It will be interesting to see if Ms. Thunberg is sufficiently self-aware to prioritize her education.

[Cherod]

Gone back to 65 , if anything going further N ( x NE ). and getting daylight about now

[Cherod]

Is this halfway day for the intrepid crew of Vagy ?