La Vagabonde's crossing

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

..
.......We just bash through -- that's why I sail a strong monohull. But I see there may be another way to do this, and it's intriguing.

That was exactly my thoughts as well DH......
I just wonder how much of a component speed is ...as opposed to intelligence from this level of weather info?

[gamayun]

Originally Posted by Maapallo

After having read along since the start of this thread I now registered after all to make this first post.

Thank you so much to everybody, BW and everybody else! I learned so many things. It was great to follow this thread every day. As a non-sailor (who has sailing friends) I have gained a whole new level of respect for what it takes, how knowledgeable and experienced and alert one has to be, what a calling it is. Hats off to those who pull it off!

Second, hats off also to the forum, because even though the thread decended into some nasty places at times, in my opinion, it always found itself again, dug itself out. That is no mean feat these days. (And I expect seasoned sailors to have a grumpy opinion or two.)

Finally, I hope it is within scope if as a climate scientist I perhaps provide two little on-topic bits of knowledge about changes that may be coming to the North Atlantic that likely will affect passages such as Vaga's in the future. It is quite interesting, I think. There are mainly two effects we're studying right now:

The first is that there is increasing evidence that the North Atlantic overturning circulation, in parts better known as the Gulf Stream, is somewhat slowing down (about 15% since the mid 20th century). This means less heat is transported to the North Atlantic. If this should continue and get stronger you can easily imagine the effect that will have on the formation of weather systems and the weather in Europe, generally. Actually, modelling studies show that the possibility cannot be ruled out that the overturning circulation could even break down at some point, which would change everything (we know it has been instable in the deeper past). Three pieces of evidence support the thought: first, while almost every part of the Earth has warmed, there is a large patch in the northern Atlantic SE of Greenland that has actually cooled - less heat is arriving, say the numbers; second, a weakening of the gulf stream would imply that it moves closer to the coast of North America, and indeed one can observe in data a warming of a large part of those waters just as one would expect (is there any knowledge in the sailing community about the gulf stream eddies being closer to the coast than a few decades ago?); and third, there are several additional independent lines of proxy evidence pointing to a slowdown. The cause is likely the increased influx of freshwater into the North Atlantic as Greenland melts more than it did, due to warming. Salinty gradients are what drives the gulf stream, and are declining due to the meltwater influx. And finally: if one runs a atmospere-ocean climate simulation model with doubled co2 concentration, the change produced for sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic on the computer has exactly the pattern we're seeing in the actual measurements today: warming everywhere, but cooling SE of Greenland, and noticeable warming along the US East coast (btw, this warming is co-causing large eastern US snow storms in the winter). So it is not about gradual warming that we should be most worried about, but such knock-on effects like changes in large-scale circulation, here of the ocean. Anytime something this big changes in the ocean, it is going to have potentially profound consequences for the weather systems (and btw, of course things have always changed, which just shows they are not totally robust and stable against influences - so if now we humans are turning some of the big knobs, like co2 in the atmosphere, past fluctuations would suggest that the system will indeed react - in this case, we'd be entering territory we've not been in for the past 3 million years, since humans appeared as a species, as far as we know.)

The second is that more and more evidence has come out that the jet streams that pattern the weather systems in the northern hemisphere including the North Atlantic have had wobbly configurations more frequently than in the past, that is to say, large meanders to the north and south. This was arcance knowledge we climate scientists had a few years ago but it recently has made its way into the more general news and weather reports etc. We think the reason is that the temperature difference between the tropics and the Arctic has declined since around 2000 because with global warming, the Arctic warms faster, reducing the difference. Atmospheric dynamics is a really complex topic, so we're not totally sure, but we think there is now an increased chance of what is called a quasi-resonance between two kinds of planetary waves in the atmosphere: one travelling around, one stationary as created by mountain chains etc. When these two wave patterns enter a kind of resonance, they can self-stabilize. This is when we have cold air from the North flowing far south, or warm air from the South flowing very far North. This has always happened, and gave us spells of weather, but more recently these phenomena have not decayed after a few days like they used to, but stabilize as decribed and have lasted for 3-4 weeks rather than 3-4 days. Many of the droughts or floods or cold spells or heat waves (depending on where you are in the pattern) in the past 20 years show this wave number 6-8 pattern around the Northern hemisphere in the data. The economic losses are large. And the frequency of these occurrences has been up. What is worrisome is that the heat wave parts of the pattern are centered on the world's bread baskets: the mid-US, W. Europe, Central Asia. But this is a North Atlantic navigation thread, so I'd just like to point out that in addition to ocean circulation potentially changing, with large impacts on weather systems, atmospheric circulation is also beginning to show effects, also with large effects on weather systems. Actually, the two might even be coupled: the jet stream wind systems like to play around that N. Atlantic area of deep water formation, so the cooling there could actually influence the atmospheric waves, as well. And we're just at the beginning of what real climate change might bring in a few decades.

So in that sense the Vaga's journey of plotting a course through and with the weather systems was the crew being immersed in some of the very things that climate warming is affecting in a way that could turn out to be something much bigger in a few decades: gulf stream weakening or shut-down, more extreme weather patterns forming.

Actually, GT visited our research institute to inform herself, as she does, discussing directly with the scientists (without fanfare or press or public relations present). She rightfully says: talk not to me, talk to the scientists (when testifying to a US congressional hearing, she did not submit her own statement, but rather a UN-mandated scientific report, saying it is not about her, but about the science - the one that produces the forecasts, too. Btw, who says that only he/she who is perfectly zero-carbon can campaign for climate protection? She travels by train, too.)

And then we can have a conversation. Plotting a course involves so much knowledge of weather systems and their behaviour, perhaps there is a meeting of minds.

It would be interesting to see the kinds of weather patterns an Atlantic crossing would be expecting in the year 2075.

Maapallo, welcome to CF! That was a great first post. I hope to see you change the "non-sailor" part in the future and participate in more threads. We can be rather obnoxious at times, but there are real gems of knowledgeable people on here that do shine through the noise. It's amazing this thread didn't go off the rails mostly because Breaking Waves who chose to continuously stay focused and not engage. I really question; however, how much sailors can recognize the change that's happening at ground level given that most of us don't cruise long time to see these effects or we haven't started doing big passages yet. With the exception of a few, IMO, sailors respond to the weather not climate. I also follow fishery issues. If anyone would like to see what happens when warming Gulf Stream waters shift north and closer to shore while colder North Atlantic waters retreat, check out research going on at Rutgers and other places along the Eastern US seaboard. Or talk to the fishermen there (not generally known as raging liberals) who are dealing first hand with the direct effects of this change.

[atoll]

Originally Posted by Noon Ocean

What a great learning opportunity it’s been. The people who want it probably already have it, but fyi Predict Wind has 50% off at the moment (I’m thinking because of the heavy traffic) which was ideal as we had been hesitant to get the full package.

I can attest that what GT and the LV crew is doing has far reaching impacts beyond their own carbon footprint. For example, we have been sailing for years and own a sailboat. We live in a remote location where I have been commuting to the city by ferry and car. When I heard about Greta’s first Atlantic Crossing, I was struck that I had not entertained the idea of commuting to school by sailboat instead. So, that ’s exactly what I will be doing. This is a significant CO2 emissions reduction, and can be directly linked to her political and normative actions of choosing to sail instead of fly.

In less than 2 months, I alone will have reduced over 1 ton of CO2 emissions- about the amount of carbon emitted for ONE person traveling one way from the US to Europe by plane. This alone makes their voyage carbon neutral because my carbon footprint can be directly attributed to Greta’s choice to sail instead of fly! Any additional CO2 expenditures made for provision for the voyage will more than be offset by further inspiration created by the voyage alone. And the bigger picture is how corporations and governments respond to the public pressure created by people inspired by her message. We still live in a fossil fuel dependant infrastructure in which nobody can be 'perfect'; what’s important here is that the concept is being challenged, and is inspiring change.

Greta, Nikki and the LV crew are also inspiring more people to get into sailing. The means a stronger industry for all those who work in it. It seems like such a great way to carry on this maritime legacy. I think it’s an exciting time for sailing and a pivotal time for humanity.

your logic is flawed,unless you live on a boat AND us it for commuting ,you are part of the problem ,not the solution.

all LV have done is create a demand for NEW people entering the marine sector,wanting new boats,new marinas,new sails,new dinghys ,new high tech clothing,new engines,new materials etc

all well and good for the carbon intensive marine industries.

but in case you have not looked,marinas,mooring fields,boat yards,anchorages around the world are FULL.yes FULL of OLD boats that never move.

how about saving the planet by first using the existing fleet of yachts that have many years of life left.
BEFORE we start building more.

For those that now want a car,a house,AND A BOAT!

[DDouglasone]

Originally Posted by Kolanorton

The European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) first drilled a core near Dome-C at 75°S 123°E 300 miles from Vostok.
The ice thickness there is 3,309m, the core was drilled to 3,190 m. It is the longest ice core in the world, where ice has been sampled to an age of 800,000 year's ago. Annual average temperature there is -54°C. Information about the core was first published in Nature magazine on June 10, 2004. The core revealed 8 previous glacial cycles. The warming and cooling cycles have a 100,000 year period. Homo sapiens evolved just 200,000 year's ago, leaving the culprit for the previous 7 warming periods still on the loose!

We can yell it from the rooftops but it never seems to matter.
Nothing the Climate Hoaxers said would happen has.
It's not about the climate.
I just hate being lied to over and over.

[Terje Vigen]

Originally Posted by Terje Vigen

... they will start their "glory lap" tomorrow morning - up the Tagus River, under the 25 de Abril Bridge (Golden Gate "sister bridge"), towards Lisbon City center...

Unfortunately, it appears that there will be a falling tide in the river tomorrow morning, from 07:37 until 13:28
https://www.tideschart.com/Portugal/...-River/Weekly/

[Cherod]

looks like they are in the " sting in the tail " right now with 30 knts , at least it is blowing in the right direction,,,,,,,,,,

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Cherod

Are you implying that is wrong ,,yes more publicity for a very important cause , what is wrong with that , maybe a bit more business for anyone involved , what is wring with that , a big welcome for the completion of an important voyage , what is wrong with that ????that is common place , remember Niome James return into Dartmouth , Che Blythe , Chichester , this years GG etc , why not Vagy ????

Not implying anything other than it making sense to choose the most public arrival possible for all concerned..
Vaga for their Paetron, Greta for her message and Nikki for her ongoing career.. maybe she will follow Ellen Macarthurs footsteps.
The river banks will be lined where ever possible and the ferries and river boats will likely be full.
Portugal loves fiestas..
If you only look for the negative, you can tweak any statement to suit..

[Cherod]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Not implying anything other than it making sense to choose the most public arrival possible for all concerned..
Vaga for their Paetron, Greta for her message and Nikki for her ongoing career.. maybe she will follow Ellen Macarthurs footsteps.
The river banks will be lined where ever possible and the ferries and river boats will likely be full.
Portugal loves fiestas..
If you only look for the negative, you can tweak any statement to suit..

i was going by the normal tone of your previous posts , maybe like many you have seen the light ..

[atoll]

Originally Posted by Terje Vigen

Unfortunately, it appears that there will be a falling tide in the river tomorrow morning, from 07:37 until 13:28
https://www.tideschart.com/Portugal/...-River/Weekly/

maybe for those in western europe or tidal waters ,who want to sail to work or go to school by boat, to offset their carbon footprint,we will in future arrange working hours around the tides

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I'm biting my tongue with regard to the climate change discussion, but I'll gladly drift the thread in a different direction:


It kind of blew my mind that these folks were able to get across W to E and in this season without going through a single real gale. That is simply incredible to me. Everyone else I know who has done this passage has gotten whacked over and over again and even had to lie to a drogue once or twice. Even in season. Albeit at a higher latitude (to Ireland), and without this quality of routing. So here's a question for BW:


Is this the result of modern weather routing plus a reasonably fast boat?


If so, then that really changes a lot of things. It means that a fast catamaran could be used for a much wider range of cruising than I imagined. I was looking hard at an Atlantic 57 cat and I might look again. I wouldn't take such a vessel to the Arctic but for everything else this could really be the right thing, if it is really true that with speed plus this kind of intense weather routing we can even zip across the N. Atlantic from W to E out of season like this.


The idea of crossing oceans fast and with this kind of intense awareness of how the weather develops is very appealing. When we did the Arctic last year we did have someone helping from shore, but the routing was much less strategic than this and we did get whacked a couple of times, moderately. We just bash through -- that's why I sail a strong monohull. But I see there may be another way to do this, and it's intriguing.

It's good from a awareness perspective regarding catamarans being safe ocean crossers, I've never agreed with the long held narrative of many that catamarans aren't upto the task.

It not just cats ,its modern design fast boats, I'm all for the modern design monos coming out of europe, heavy ,slow double ender mentality is rapidly giving way to modern design as ocean crossing boats. Gast cruising averages are a good thing.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by atoll

your logic is flawed,unless you live on a boat AND us it for commuting ,you are part of the problem ,not the solution.

all LV have done is create a demand for NEW people entering the marine sector,wanting new boats,new marinas,new sails,new dinghys ,new high tech clothing,new engines,new materials etc

all well and good for the carbon intensive marine industries.

but in case you have not looked,marinas,mooring fields,boat yards,anchorages around the world are FULL.yes FULL of OLD boats that never move.

how about saving the planet by first using the existing fleet of yachts that have many years of life left.
BEFORE we start building more.

For those that now want a car,a house,AND A BOAT!

Aint that a fact Atoll..
Everyone wants that NEW BOAT.. the latest greatest peice of kit that money can buy yet every oz of material going on it makes a footprint..
None care much for the 10, 20, 30yr old boat unless restricted financially.. definitely the much smaller footprint, and pollutant.
Inconvenient logic for the Preacher Jones's.

[daletournier]

Lodgic???, lol, lodgic gets in the way of feel good emotions..no no no.

On another note ,I'm in the San Blas right now and did sail past a sunken island that wasnt sunken a couple of years back, theres a couple actually. The cruising guide attributes this to global warming.

Originally Posted by boatman61

Aint that a fact Atoll..
Everyone wants that NEW BOAT.. the latest greatest peice of kit that money can buy yet every oz of material going on it makes a footprint..
None care much for the 10, 20, 30yr old boat unless restricted financially.. definitely the much smaller footprint, and pollutant.
Inconvenient logic for the Preacher Jones's. [emoji3]

[DDouglasone]

Originally Posted by atoll

your logic is flawed,unless you live on a boat AND us it for commuting ,you are part of the problem ,not the solution.

all LV have done is create a demand for NEW people entering the marine sector,wanting new boats,new marinas,new sails,new dinghys ,new high tech clothing,new engines,new materials etc

all well and good for the carbon intensive marine industries.

but in case you have not looked,marinas,mooring fields,boat yards,anchorages around the world are FULL.yes FULL of OLD boats that never move.

how about saving the planet by first using the existing fleet of yachts that have many years of life left.
BEFORE we start building more.

For those that now want a car,a house,AND A BOAT!

Agreed.

I enjoy the guy/girl team finding the derelict and fixing it up.

These two are hillariously silly, yet so much more fun to watch AND they're in my neck of the woods.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Cherod

i was going by the normal tone of your previous posts , maybe like many you have seen the light ..

What light would that be..
Re the tone of my posts.. nothing different to my tone when I joined CF.. if anything I have mellowed.
If you mean the current knickers in a twist thread
I see it for what it is.. A Transat with some well know folk on board making it look a bigger deal than what it is for the many who never have or ever will do it..
Its just a Transat.. SHTF anytime of year out there as CF history shows, folk make it or they don't.
Climate Change has little to do with conditions they experienced, if anything the N Atlantic has mellowed since I first travelled it on an RN Frigate during the Cod War in the 60's.
You want to be a Greta Groupie go for it..

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Cherod

looks like they are in the " sting in the tail " right now with 30 knts , at least it is blowing in the right direction,,,,,,,,,,

The good news is as they close the coast it gets better, seas and winds easing..
Glorious sunny day..