PredictWind vs Reality

[jerrypeters]

I'm confused. Predict Wind is reporting max winds of about 45 knots in and around Hurricane Beryl at this moment (all six models) while NOAA is reporting maximum sustained winds of 115 knots. What gives?

[Sabado]

Those models are not intended for hurricane intensity. There are models such as HWRF that are better for hurricane intensity.

[jerrypeters]

Then what good are the other models and PredictWind by extension? Are they accurate for actual winds below 50 knots? 40 knots?

[leecea]

I was curious and found...

https://hurricanescience.org/science...els/index.html

From skimming it I think the summary is that the global models are poor at forecasting storm intensity but the regional models can do that with more accuracy.

[Sabado]

My understanding is that the models do a poor job with intensity when convection is at play. That's one of the reasons the hurricane planes fly to the storm, so they can get a read on intensity.

I've been watching the discussions on some of the Caribbean FB groups and there are more than a few people using the PW data to encourage people to make unsafe decisions because the "model says it's only going to be 40 knots".

The windy app has the option to turn on their hurricane tracking and it provides better data.