PredictWind? Weatherfax? What weather system do you recommend for crossing oceans?

[Auspicious]

Originally Posted by Exile

Can't comment on the nuances of local weather forecasting skills, but your analogy to "handbook engineers" parlays nicely in my mind with your admonition to be "beware of cut & paste sailors."

At least I'm consistent. *grin*

Originally Posted by Exile

"ZOOM OUT, ZOOM OUT"

OCD and good engineers are correlated. Causation is less clear.

Originally Posted by Exile

And now for a little levity . . .

The Romans had wonderful engineers. I blame the abolition of slavery and the institution of professional politicians.

I remember a building code that required all new construction of roads have manhole covers in the center of the road or the center of a lane or on the sidewalk in order for more pleasant rides.That was good and thoughtful engineering.

Here in Annapolis a mayor focused on infrastructure (pothole repair, transit) was voted out for a bread and circuses mayor focused on splash parks, closing streets for block parties, and parades. In the meantime the roads deteriorate, traffic accidents snarl any ability to move around, flooding continues unabated, and taxes go up.

Bah!

[dreuge]

I just want to add that I found this thread very interesting to read. I have played around with receiving a Wefax, but the information is just too limited. I have read many articles comparing SatComs (i.e. Iridium Go) to SSB HFComs. For example, I just came across a March 2019 Cruising World online article titled “Weather Routing Software for Sailors”, like other articles, it claims that the high upfront costs make a Marine HF system too expensive.

I have been sailing for quit some time mostly costal cruising. A few years ago I replaced my 30ft race cruiser with a 38ft cruiser. I want offshore communications, but I wavered on which route to go. I do have an InReach Explorer which I use for position recording and sending simple txt messages. It does have some limited weather reporting and routing (via FastSeas). I ended up reading some online materials and took and passed both the Amateur tech and general exam in one sitting.

To be honest, I like the savings of DIY and going the Ham route is an effective and highly cost saving route. I was pretty green on all things Ham, but I purchased my 1st HF radio last Dec and got it working on the boat rather quickly and very affordable at under $1k. I list my initial costs below in order to get things working for receiving offshore gribs and weather routes.

HF Transceiver costs for receiving offshore gribs

• YAESU FT-891 $510
• AUTO-TUNER SGC SG-239 $200
• USB SOUND CARD $20
• AMATEUR RADIO GEN LICENSE $0
• WINLINK ARDOP EMAIL $0
• COUNTERPOISE/RF GROUND $50
• MISC. CABLES/CONNECTORS $50

INITIAL COST FOR EQUIPMENT $830
ADDITIONAL COST PER YEAR CRUISING $0-$100 (free as in free lunch)

What surprised me most are the recent advances in Amateur radio. It's no longer morse code and CB-like voice chats, though I think you can still do that. The new digital modes provide communications in near all conditions and time of day. There are a plethora of digital modes, some old and some new. Using FT8 was great for getting things working (i.e. radio, sound card modem and computer). I like using the newly developed JT8Call extension of FT8 for digital txt chatting, person to person texting, or as a net of people chatting. I even send SMS txt messages via my radio to relatives via JT8Call (all free). But I also like using SSB voice for participating in marine nets which is reason alone for going with an SSB.

And Yes, I am receiving Winlink emails for weather gribs and routes all without an expensive Pactor modem (and also free). I started off using the free Predict Wind Offshore program for viewing the free grib files from Saildocs.com. I thought about subscribing to PW for their gribs and routes, but I discovered LuckGrib. The program costs $24 (one time) but it nicely displays weather gribs and it imports FastSeas weather routes and will show a vessel following along the route as the gribs advance in time. Brilliant!! LuckGrib has an offshore module which is an additional one time costs of $40, but then you get free weather gribs including GFS, ECMWF, OCEANS Currents, and ... sent from their servers.

LuckGrib runs on a Mac or iOS devices which I view as a huge plus. I have recently installed a Raspberry Pi for connecting to the radio and running the digital software. I use vnc on the Mac or use Pat Winlink via the Mac or iPad web browser. It's really nice. I can control the radio, request and receive emails, and view weather gribs and routes wirelessly from anywhere on the boat.

Dreuge

[magentawave]

Thanks for sharing such useful information!

It would be great to see a video of exactly how all of this stuff connects.

The guy in this video https://youtu.be/l1QyDVgclto recommends a cheap $90.00 Tecsun PL 600 AM/FM shortwave radio to get the grib files on to his computer.

Is being able to send and receive email the big advantage for spending $830.00 on the Ham radio vs using the cheap $90.00 radio he recommended?

[dreuge]

Don't confuse WeFax with GRIBs and weather routes. I suggest you check out the Predict Wind site, download the free Offshore app, and request a few free gribs using the free PW account. If you use a mac then try LuckGrib for free. Then go check out FastSeas.com for weather routing and departure planning. BTW, I did start out with a Tecsun PL-880. Played around with it only to get inconsistent results at best.

Originally Posted by magentawave

Thanks for sharing such useful information!

It would be great to see a video of exactly how all of this stuff connects.

The guy in this video https://youtu.be/l1QyDVgclto recommends a cheap $90.00 Tecsun PL 600 AM/FM shortwave radio to get the grib files on to his computer.

Is being able to send and receive email the big advantage for spending $830.00 on the Ham radio vs using the cheap $90.00 radio he recommended?

[magentawave]

Originally Posted by dreuge

Don't confuse WeFax with GRIBs and weather routes. I suggest you check out the Predict Wind site, download the free Offshore app, and request a few free gribs using the free PW account. If you use a mac then try LuckGrib for free. Then go check out FastSeas.com for weather routing and departure planning. BTW, I did start out with a Tecsun PL-880. Played around with it only to get inconsistent results at best.

I already have the paid version of PredictWind but I'm thinking of later this year when it expires and so I don't have to pay expensive monthly fees for stuff like IridiumGo, etc. FastSeas.com looks great and especially at only $60.00 per year. And that's great to know about the Tecsun radio too.

Sorry if this is a dumb question, but again, do you use the Ham radio to get the gribs that download to your computer? And do you also use the Ham radio to get the routing information from FastSeas?

[MJH]

Auspicious. " It's easier that that. In fact it is really easy. There are two cycles of weather fax per day. See rfax.pdf that I linked to up in post #2 (or #4 - I forget). Just turn your weather fax gear on ahead of time and let it run. The software will start and stop automatically for each page and save them all. Once in a while a stop tone will be missed and you'll get two charts on one page. The only important thing is power management on your laptop. Set it so the computer never goes to sleep when plugged in, and when you close the lid it does nothing (no changes). You can have the display turn off - that's fine. You'll want an auto/air adapter to run your laptop off 12VDC. Don't cheap out. The third-party adapters such as those from Kensington can be very electrically noisy and disrupt reception."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am aware of the capability to leave your SSB and Weather Fax on continuously for 24 hours to capture the 24/48/72 hour forecast charts. However at 2Ah (SEA 225 radio) I would be using eight times the power that I did in three hours. There are always tradeoffs and that was a call I made to conserve power on a roundtrip to Hawaii.


Regarding changes to the Worldwide Radio Facsimile Broadcast Schedules, I included that comment because of my personal experience. In preparation for that voyage to Hawaii I checked the schedule, found that the schedule had changed and that an error had been made to the Pacific schedule. I contacted the source via email and notified them. They responded and a correction was made. Again, my recommendation is to check the latest copy before departure; mid Pacific is no place to coordinate corrections.


~ ~ _/ ~ ~ MJH

[ews]

my 2 cts after sailing from Canada to MX, through the Pacific, to NZ, back Fiji, Vanuatu, PNG, Palau, now Philippines.

I have use:

Predictwind and Iridium GO. Now cancelled. Too expensive.

M802, Pactor 4. With Predictwind and just using Grib, Synoptics

Sangean 900 with Blackcat SW for WeFax (SW works of course also with the M802)

Sailgrib WR, with Iridium Go. Now changing workflow to grib files received via Pactor/Winlink

Weather Router. Bob McDavitt. This ones the easiest to comment on. Bob was always a great resource in addition to my own weather assessments. I used him mainly when I entered a weather area I wasn't familiar with or when the conditions where not easy (for me) to interpret. Reasonably priced, alwasy friendly, more often right than wrong and a good resource I would always use when I feel like it is necessary to get additional info from somebody who has access to more weather tool than I have.

Predictwind. Good Software package, friendly support folks. I stopped using the PWG, PWE forecasts as they were most of the times exaggerated, off in timing and at times outright wrong and confusing. But other than that, this is a solid SW package and paired with an Iridium GO a good set of tools for offshore weather. Its also VERY expensive. Especially the GO subscription has become ridiculously expensive and the Iridium mail SW you get with it is absolutely unusable and so buggy it is dangerous to rely on it for offshore safety.

I have since moved to Sailgrib WR as my weather and routing SW. Not as fancy as Predictwind but has some nice routing features PW is still missing.

As an avid aviator I too am a big supporter of the synaptic charts. Being able to read/interpret a 500 mb chart has its benefits. Period.

So I think if you are willing/able to spend $200/mth for sat services then thats a much easier route to go.

But if not, a Pactor4 is a very powerful modem and yes, the workflow and timing and skills required are a bit more than with hitting "receive" on a sat phone app. And don't underestimate the advantage of HF boat to boat, emergency options, cruiser nets. I didn't think I'd be on the nets when I left Canada, or use HF boat to boat as much as I do for buddy sailing. But I do.

And of course never underestimate local weather phenomena. Not just anabatic and katabatic effects, but local geographic effects and greater players like ITCZ and SPCZ.

The only wish I'd have is Pactor4 support for Android/Linux so I could finally feed this stupid Windows box to the Nudibranches ;-).

I've been studying, and applying weather all through my adult life in aviation and now sailing and I still learn. So having a couple of weather books in your boat library and attend some lectures thats a great idea too.


cheerio

[slug]

Originally Posted by magentawave

If all goes well, I'm hoping to sail solo from San Diego to Hawaii next May and then back to San Diego a couple months later.

I'm considering getting Predict Wind but have a couple questions, please...

1) How accurate are PredictWinds Departure Planning and Weather Routing features using Iridium Go in the middle of the Pacific?

2) To get PredictWinds Departure Planning and Weather Routing features you have to buy their Standard package at $250 per year or Professional package at $500 per year. (+ $700 for Iridium Go + $60 to $140 per month for Iridium Go data package.) Which would you choose? https://forecast.predictwind.com/reg...change/package

3) Assuming PredictWind is accurate, I sure like the peace of mind available with their Departure Planning and Route Planning, but are there better and cheaper alternatives? This guy uses Weatherfax with a little cheap short wave radio and laptop.
https://youtu.be/l1QyDVgclto

Thanks!

Seems to be some kinda fetish around predict wind

I’ve been using Weather Track for years
Cheap and it does everything needed
About ten dollars
Routing plus
Many links embedded in the app to access fax surface charts and national met office data

[robert sailor]

If you can get weather fax and GRIB files, you have a reliable barometer aboard plus a rudimentary knowledge of very basic weather then you should be good to go. I have both SSB and Sat phone but I don't bother with the Sat phone as I'm very happy with the SSB and Pactor modem. Never used a weather router before although these days seems pretty common. Your trip to Hawaii which I've done 4 times is reasonably predictable...as in usually very easy and quite wonderful for your first passage. Coming back from Hawaii you'll be beating upwind for several days to get on the topside of the Pacific high then you'll crack off and get on a nice reach. There are usually a gale or two that comes by on the way home but very seldom anything to write home about. Don't get too close to the high or you'll be in very light wind. Bring some warm clothes because even though its mid summer once your a week or so out of Hawaii it can get pretty wet and cool. It's pretty common to run into heavy fog when your 800 or so miles from the mainland and it's also common to have several offshore fishing boats out there with their large nets. Otherwise it's just sailing. Have a great trip, no need to over complicate it ...R

[Sailor279]

Originally Posted by magentawave

If all goes well, I'm hoping to sail solo from San Diego to Hawaii next May and then back to San Diego a couple months later.

I'm considering getting Predict Wind but have a couple questions, please...

1) How accurate are PredictWinds Departure Planning and Weather Routing features using Iridium Go in the middle of the Pacific?

2) To get PredictWinds Departure Planning and Weather Routing features you have to buy their Standard package at $250 per year or Professional package at $500 per year. (+ $700 for Iridium Go + $60 to $140 per month for Iridium Go data package.) Which would you choose? https://forecast.predictwind.com/reg...change/package

3) Assuming PredictWind is accurate, I sure like the peace of mind available with their Departure Planning and Route Planning, but are there better and cheaper alternatives? This guy uses Weatherfax with a little cheap short wave radio and laptop.
https://youtu.be/l1QyDVgclto

Thanks!

I wouldn't assume that PW is any more accurate than any other weather forecast. Keep in mind, that despite the hi-res forecast (wind in my .25 degree patch), all these models are created for vast areas (think thousands of miles) and what you're seeing is an interpolation of those large-scale models. There is some refinement that PW does and I also like that it pulls from US and European models and additionally generates it's own analysis. I like having several to compare with my own eyes/brain and even check what I'm seeing against the pro weather router. We run PW from an Iridium Go and works just fine so long as you can interpret and analyze the models. If you're not practiced at this, subscribe to the router's service and consider the cost to be 'tuition'.

[nofacey]

I was fortunate enough to have both SSB/Pactor and IridiumGo/PredictWind available on a 5 yr circumnavigation completed last year. And I believe it's all about weather - watched a boat I wouldn't take off the BC coast go around cape horn - because he got the weather right.

The two systems are not equal - in a nutshell, the IridiumGO recieved reliably across all oceans, and the SSB did not
- and I have a steel hull (= great ground plane), a new radio & modem that was professionally setup & wonderful power - on SSB nets, we are a boomer boat.

Using the modem across the Pacific in 2015, weather reception was pretty reliable. Getting closer to Australia, you had to work harder to find a clear channel, due largely to Asian traffic. Across the Indian Ocean, the Pactor Modem was functionally useless - I gave up on it for weather after multiple long late night sessions, working the best propagation windows, and still not getting anything clean.

Meanwhile the IridiumGO delivered pretty much on demand - did have to wait short periods occasionally to get enough satellites, but that was it - I never went without weather.

Tip of Africa was better for the modem - but after St Helena, coming up past Brazil, it was just a paperweight......aside from enabling us to relay PW weather info to our pactor dependent boat buddies.

Around the Caribbean the modem was useful again - but honestly I've relegated it to back up, and cancelled my sailmail account.

Coming back to Hawaii via the Marquesas, the nets were working hard to cover all the way across - propagation is simply worse now than a few years ago - global deterioration or a sun cycle?? heck if I know, but when I go out again, the IridiumGo will be my prime weather receiver, most likely with PredictWind.

Yes PredictWind is expensive - but it's the cost of getting meaningful weather info reliably twice a day.

The Professional package only really makes sense if you value current info - like off Cape Hope, coming up past Guiana, or when you're searching for countercurrents.

[coopec43]

I read the thread and don't intend to but has anyone posted this link?


Weather Forecasts Sources for the Sailor

Weather Forecasts Sources for the Sailor - Franks-Weather - The Weather Window

[akopac]

Saildocs is your friend.

[Safari38LH]

Originally Posted by slug

Seems to be some kinda fetish around predict wind

I’ve been using Weather Track for years
Cheap and it does everything needed
About ten dollars
Routing plus
Many links embedded in the app to access fax surface charts and national met office data

Ditto that! Use Weather Track with SailDocs offshore. The price is right!

[Moo]

That data is the same for all the model based service so pick the one that you like using. All the paid services give you a choice of models; GFS ECWM being the main base models.