Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

[bazzer]

Originally Posted by Friend of Nina

Response from RCC..

RCC

Thanks for the update, clears up confusion for sure in my mind.

Now, they said they were running under bare poles at 4 knots, where would that put them from the last known position?
It is reasonable to assume that the skipper was well battened down for the storm at the time of the last message, so maybe with the storm they later lost the poles and or the sat antenna. Of so I would say they could well be limping along somewhere out there. There has been many incredible stories of survival and hopefully this is another.

[Jroach321]

What's the chance that the epirb is not working?

[romulusm]

As I am watching this topic and hope for all the best, something is not clear to me... Sure, as I am inexperienced sailor, it's probably just me, but...

From what I understand... Last known position, early june 4th was:

33 53 S 165 18 E

And heading NW from last message heading 310.

But then, in the text:

On the first day of air search 25 June (NZ time) they searched the large, somewhat slender swath between NZ and the Cook Islands in the lighter blue green color using a P3 Orion, they searched this area because there was already a plane returning from there. The P3 Orion is a military grade plane with the best radar detection currently available, as well as other sensors they don't know about and can't tell us anyway due to military regulations (NZ RCC searches are often conducted by the military). At this time they were looking for Nina. They have the capability to tell the radar to look for a vessel of Nina's size.

Look in the attachment... Is this very strange or is it me?

[mistermizu]

"Thanks. Storm sails shredded last night, now bare poles. Going 4kt 310DEG Will update course info @6pm." 2013-06-03 23:50:25

Reading between the lines:

"Thanks" - definitely in touch with someone. Who? What info/advice was shared?
"Storm sails shredded last night, now bare poles." - Suggests perhaps through the worst of it, but still blowing too strong to consider using any other sails. Implies rig still intact, masts OK. Implies they are not running engine at that time.
"Going 4kt 310 deg." - they are moving at a speed that gives them steerage (ie. they can maneuver yacht to avoid worst of the seas & avoid a broach), but not too fast to add to problems.
"Will update course info @6pm" - suggests they are intending to hold that course for a while; that they are reasonably comfortable on that course; that they don't envisage any problems as regards power and their ability to transmit; that their situation seems not so urgent that more frequent updates are planned.
Given the the fact that this message is communicating their condition after a rough night, the fact that there is no mention of structural damage, water ingress, electrical problems, engine problems etc. is a good sign, and suggests that these things had not been experienced up to the time 23:50:25.
The important question someone might be able to answer now is what weather/sea conditions did they experience after that time. Had they managed to weather the worst of it, or did conditions continue to deteriorate?
These are just a few thoughts intended to possibly help someone who doesn't sail decipher some of the possible implications...

[romulusm]

they searched this area because there was already a plane returning from there

Also this does not make any sense...

[bazzer]

Originally Posted by mistermizu

"Thanks. Storm sails shredded last night, now bare poles. Going 4kt 310DEG Will update course info @6pm." 2013-06-03 23:50:25

Reading between the lines:

"Thanks" - definitely in touch with someone. Who? What info/advice was shared?
"Storm sails shredded last night, now bare poles." - Suggests perhaps through the worst of it, but still blowing too strong to consider using any other sails. Implies rig still intact, masts OK. Implies they are not running engine at that time.
"Going 4kt 310 deg." - they are moving at a speed that gives them steerage (ie. they can maneuver yacht to avoid worst of the seas & avoid a broach), but not too fast to add to problems.
"Will update course info @6pm" - suggests they are intending to hold that course for a while; that they are reasonably comfortable on that course; that they don't envisage any problems as regards power and their ability to transmit; that their situation seems not so urgent that more frequent updates are planned.
Given the the fact that this message is communicating their condition after a rough night, the fact that there is no mention of structural damage, water ingress, electrical problems, engine problems etc. is a good sign, and suggests that these things had not been experienced up to the time 23:50:25.
The important question someone might be able to answer now is what weather/sea conditions did they experience after that time. Had they managed to weather the worst of it, or did conditions continue to deteriorate?
These are just a few thoughts intended to possibly help someone who doesn't sail decipher some of the possible implications...

Bare poles indicate they were running before the wind, not motoring.

[bazzer]

Originally Posted by Jroach321

What's the chance that the epirb is not working?

Not a lot, the EPIRB is not dependent on external power or antenna. Nina might be limping along unaware of the SAR operation and not being in enough danger to activate the EPIRB

[boatman61]

I remain positive...

[mistermizu]

Originally Posted by bazzer

Bare poles indicate they were running before the wind, not motoring.

Agreed.

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by Jroach321

What's the chance that the epirb is not working?

The answer to that could depend on the EPIRB. If it was not water activaed and it was lost overboard than that would be that for the EPIRB. If it was water activated and has not been, then the scenario I would like to hope for is they are limping along a little beat up with no electrical.

[Gareth Hughes]

Some guesses: Assuming the storm sails were in good condition, they should not have blown out in 65kts of wind, especially in a schooner which is particularly well suited for storm sails, so my guess is they experienced more than 65Kts. Running at 4kts under bare poles would indicate significantly less wind (assuming they had no drogue) perhaps 45 kts (the power in a wind is proportional to the square of its speed, so that's a reduction of half). Schooners, because of the drag of their keel being well aft are usually pretty good at running under bare poles.

Unfortunately there are no answers in these suppositions. The only sliver of hope I see is the auto release on the liferaft and that the liferaft has not yet been found.

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by romulusm

Also this does not make any sense...

Makes sense to me. Plane was flying that route so switched the sensors on for Nina. Was Nina likely to be in that area? I dunno - but clearly the SAR folks thought it was possible (3 weeks from last position to that search).

Another half idea, but since the US Govt are involved and they are good with technology and tracking stuff ........

....I am aware that it is possible for da Gubberment to track Satellite Phones when being used, but no idea if possible to ping it when inactive (maybe not enuf oomph to make a call etc, but still "live"??) - either to get a location(ish) or simply to verify that it is out there. I do know that da Gubberment can track mobiles when not used and whilst highly likely they are out of mobile phone range maybe do the same for the phones of the crew just in case they are bobbing around in a liferaft near shore / coverage, but not enough power to send a signal out (my thought is that most folks seem to be glued to their mobile phones, so likely at least one would be with them in a raft).

Just to make clear that I am not exactly technologically literate!, so possible that the above not doable - but wiser heads than mine will no doubt inform me!

[highseas]

What are the odds of rogue waves in this area?

[romulusm]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

Makes sense to me. Plane was flying that route so switched the sensors on for Nina. Was Nina likely to be in that area? I dunno - but clearly the SAR folks thought it was possible (3 weeks from last position to that search).
[...]

Why would a plane returning from an area be a reason for searching that area? What is the connection? Maybe I do not understand correctly something...

[romulusm]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

[...]

....I am aware that it is possible for da Gubberment to track Satellite Phones when being used, but no idea if possible to ping it when inactive (maybe not enuf oomph to make a call etc, but still "live"??) - either to get a location(ish) or simply to verify that it is out there. I do know that da Gubberment can track mobiles when not used and whilst highly likely they are out of mobile phone range maybe do the same for the phones of the crew just in case they are bobbing around in a liferaft near shore / coverage, but not enough power to send a signal out (my thought is that most folks seem to be glued to their mobile phones, so likely at least one would be with them in a raft).
[...]

I am afraid it would not be any help from here. Satphone is probably not reachable, so not emitting any radio waves that can be used. And assuming there is still any powered on cellular, that is quite short range as far as radio emissions are concerned.

Governments can track cellular in populated cities, where one cellular, are as you say is "pinged" by several cellular stations. But this is not the case here, where no station is in range.

Do not know a lot about Iridium or any other sat phone service, but I would expect that in order to preserve power in a mobile terminal, there is no "pinging" while not in use. If there are more satellites receiving a particular mobile terminal transmissions, it would be technically possible to triangulate the source of that transmission exactly as in a cell network, but again, not sure, mobile terminal is transmitting any radio waves while not in use.