Storm avoidance - I FAILED but need help

[PLANET EXPRESS]

+1 what Chris Mac said cape index for storm potential.

[wholybee]

Predictwind has a cape forecast, which indirectly gives an indication of the likelyhood of squalls and lightning. (It's looking at energy) So when passage planning, look for days with a lower cape index.

Sometimes squalls are not avoidable. You can usually see them forming a couple hours ahead of time, often as a line of dark clouds in a row. Reef down if you see this happening. About 30 seconds before they hit, you will feel a cold wind shift. It's too late to reef at that point.

Pretty much any boat can deal with a 50kt squall and resulting sea state, it doesn't even need to be a "blue water" boat. But excellent seamanship is important. An accidental jibe with 50 kts. could take down a rig. Or trying to reef in those conditions and not executing it properly could cause all sorts of injuries or damage.

[Capt Clark]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

It's pretty simple. I use Weather Underground, but any will do.

I’m with Tetepare on this. I use the radar feature on Weather Underground DAILY on land & water. It has saved my butt a few times.

Capt Clark

[JPA Cate]

Sudden squalls at night can almost always be seen at least 5 min. in advance. The cloud cover approaching appears as a dark grey shadow against the black of the night sky. That's time enough to take down the mainsail and zip the bag. Sudden squalls often have up to about 45 in them, although others, the wind stops entirely. A real mixed bag.

I have radar but not sure how to use it for avoiding storms like this.

Radar will show the rainfall. If you are in internet range, look at the local radar: it will show you the direction and intensity of the rain. It does not show wind strength. If I look at our radar, display is in light against grey, and the rain shows up as varying lighter intensity. A return as solid as ships is very heavy rainfall. Again, it does not tell wind strength, what does give an indicator of wind strength is how fast the squall is moving. At that point, with greater or lesser urgency, you make the decision about taking sail off, if you havent already reefed prophylactically (as Boatie suggested).

Second, Is lightning a real concern? It scares me to death. I'm not really afraid for my life but I have concerned my boat is going to get struck and cause an epic amount of issues.

Lightning is scary. However it is not something we can avoid very well. Skirting the squall may help, but it is really the luck of the draw. Accept it [always accept what you cannot change]; use the fear's energy to help you strike sail sooner.

Third, what weather apps

can I use that will predict the storms? I have storm radar but that only goes out about 5 hours so that isn't enough. Fourth, what is the best way to get info while under passage (iridium, get internet somehow?).


others have answered this.

Fifth, How much can boats really take? When is it time to get scared? I felt safe in my boat while heading into the waves but I was expecting a big wave to hit us from the side at anytime.

In general, boats can take a lot more than the crews. I do not know enough about the construction of your particular boat to say what size waves beam to would be a problem. I would not think a 10 foot wave would destroy it. Incidentally, the good thing about squalls is that usually there isn't time to build up a very big sea. Also, note that one's fear makes waves seem bigger than they are. This is not so for a storm front, in some cases, you get the seas and stirred up water before the front arrives. You sound to me as if you just need to have more sea time. A 50 ft. cat is a huge boat by my standards, and I can understand how it can be really scary out of control. Big boats generate big forces. What will help you is to go out intentionally in low intensity storms, and practice. It is experience and memory and learning what works that makes for better seamanship. You could even hire an experienced teacher to help you with your techniques, the sequences of actions and so forth. Your fear is helping you become a better skipper, a great opportunity to learn. The ocean teaches humility.

Jim and I have a lot of sea miles together, somewhere over 175,000, and it was my fear taught me when to make sail changes...and it was Jim's need to sleep off watch that taught me at night to not follow squalls around, but to try and catch their lighter edges. Nothing there to be ashamed of: fear's a tool to be used; like anger.

In my honest opinion, it sounds to me like you have more boat than you are comfortable with. The only way to make the endeavor a success is going to be by doing. I don't think the electronic answers are the clue. You need night time watches as well as daytime ones, and you need to know how to use the mark one eyeball to clue into what the visual clues are. Reading some of Boatman 61's posts where he is specific about what you see in the sky and what it tells you may help, but seeking out that weather with someone more experienced with big cats is what will help the most.

Ann

[JPA Cate]

I want to be very clear about this: you did not fail. You had a learning experience.

And, imo, it is not electronic gadgetry that will help you (it is likely to not work after a lightning strike); what will help is experience in poor conditions with a much more experienced teacher. You and whoever sails with you needs to be able to trust you to do the right things when things go belly up. "Things" do that without warning.

Ann

[capn_billl]

Having been caught by unexpected thunderstorms myself, I know the feeling.


I once was anchored where severe storms were predicted.

I debated with my wife whether to stay, and take it at anchor, or go ahead, and go on, and take it at sea.

In the end we decided after the first wave of thunderclouds hit we were no better at anchor than open ocean, so we pulled anchor, and went for it.

We could see black skies, and flashes behind us where we were anchored, and patted ourselves on the back for leaving.

Next day another set was expected, and I pored anxiously over the predicted paths, noticed some discrepancy between predicted wind direction, and actual wind direction, (possibly from convection).

It broke on top of us.

Scary but from recent past experience, I dropped the sails, and motored immediately.

Turned out to be mostly a light show, (I have heavy braid grounding straps from the shrouds to the water) other than a few electronics on board rebooting during closer strikes nothing bad happened).

That night I anchored on a reef, and again anxiously waited for expected thunderclouds, and could see frequent flashes in the distance, but even though the predicted path was right over the top of me, that's all that happened all night.

Quiet, flashes of light, and distant booms first off the bow, then around me, but not close, then behind, and fading in the distance.

SO my conclusion is...

1. you can't depend 100% even on the most modern weather systems.

2. if it wants you, it's going to get you.

3. unless you are in hurricane season even a bad squall is survivable with preparation.

4. and don't worry, go sailing. "If it's going to happen, it's going to happen out there" .

And taking a thunderstorm with driving rain, and 40 knot winds in the open ocean was actually less drama than I expected after dragging anchor in similar conditions at anchor.

[Bill O]

Use an electronic barometer with alarms.
A drop in the barometer (setting off the alarm) will usually give plenty of time to adjust sails or anchor to wait it out.
Saved us several times from pop up storms.

[mgrouch]

AcuRite Portable Lightning Detector

$35

will give you distance to lightning front storm. You will see if it closes on you.

at least something
if front is accompanied by T-storm
In other cases there are no T-storms. Happens too.

I’ve also got into 1 hr bad of weather when windy kept showing perfect calm.

[mgrouch]

I also disagree with statements that no electronics devices can give you fair warning time. Drop of pressure, lightning sensor, radar. I think it can be all set up to alert you and give time to reef even without forecast

[wholybee]

Something that is important to realize about wind predictions is that they are averaged over both time and area. You can have a squall with 50kt winds in 1 square mile, but one "square" of resolution of predictwind offshore is about 900 square miles. As good as about 25 square miles only with the professional plan and a HS Internet connection other than the Go! In that square, the average might only be 5 kts, but with squalls in that square being much higher and at much different directions.

Even without squalls, a front might exist in that 900 square miles creating areas of vastly different wind speed and direction.

I think this is the real reason people often complain about predictwind or other grib sources of being inaccurate. They're really not, you just need to understand the averaging going on, and look at how weather is changing and moving through an area and not focus on the weather at a specific point location, because the point location forecast is just an average of weather forecast around it.

You can look at the cape forecast for energy and potential for squalls/lightning, and the cloud forecast and rain forecast, and the surface pressure forecast together to predict the weather variations that might exist inside a 900 square mile area.

Once you are "in it" your eyes should give you enough warning of lightning/squalls etc. I have sailed though lightning at least a dozen times, and I could always see it on the horizon an hour or more before it got to me. And you can watch squalls form also, and often you can see one or two in the distance with rain/etc hours before one hits you directly. At night it's harder, but if the moon is out you can still see the clouds forming.

[sailasia]

Radar omega is much better than Weather underground.

It appears pixalated but that is actually the raw data from the doplar. WU has smoothed out edges and is also slightly behind. I have compared the 2 in real time and radar omega is much better.

There is a small subscription fee, but well worth it in my mind. Also lots of different ways to configure as well as sea buoy reports all right there.

[recurveman]

Originally Posted by Madehn

not a lot of direct experience but I have heard that many cruising sailors reef in at night even if weather is good since they feel that they cannot detect the storms ahead as there is much less in the way of visual clues that the weather is worsening. That way they are prepared sail wise if things go a bit sideways-- downside is that you are slower of course. interested to hear what the group consensus on this practice is.

We actually lost our wind just before dark and were motoring through the storm

[recurveman]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

As above, I've done many an offshore trip and have often been nailed by these "thunderstorms". which typically arrive late in the afternoon or early evening, sometimes even late evening.
My experience is that they are usually short lived...20-30 minutes, during which time wind speeds and wave height can jump up quickly.
I sometimes try to sail thru' them with shortened sails, but most often, just take everything down and let it blow me whereever. I kinda like 'em, as it washes the boat down.

Typically, within an hour after, seas quieten down again, and often there is no wind at all.

At night, while you might not be able to see the rain clouds coming, you can usually see the lightning and smell the rain, at least I can, which can give you a 10 minute warning.

The first ever time I got nailed by one, I was a bit panicky, but these days, I take it in stride, and so will you.

yeah I was a bit panicky!!!! Never felt unsafe for the conditions but I was worried conditions were going to change for the worse.

[boatman61]

What freaked me out on one July Transat from St Martin was when 3 large water spouts sprang up a couple of miles behind me and then moved in my direction..
Light wind so drifting along on my 32ftr at about 3kts.. started engine and fled at full throttle zigzagging as I tried to stay clear of their erratic progress..
Used a lot of fuel I could ill afford to with a coupla thousand miles to go.. which turned into 4K as I bypassed the Azores.

[accomplice]

Originally Posted by boatman61

[...] 3 large water spouts sprang up a couple of miles behind me and then moved in my direction.. [...] started engine and fled at full throttle zigzagging

Serpentine! Serpentine!