Storm avoidance - I FAILED but need help

[SV_FlyingTigress]

Originally Posted by capn_billl

Having been caught by unexpected thunderstorms myself, I know the feeling.


(I have heavy braid grounding straps from the shrouds to the water)

Any chance you could post some pictures of your installation? I have been noodling how I might be able to ground the boat and have a P39 cat so straight down from the mast to keel isn't an option.

Thanks,


Stephen

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by recurveman

yeah I was a bit panicky!!!! Never felt unsafe for the conditions but I was worried conditions were going to change for the worse.

Things can always change for the worse.

We were with 100 boats and all watched a typical summer storm grow 1km from us. No big deal. But it suddenly exploded in size and hit hard as a microburst with winds recorded at 74mph (120kph).

But let's shoot for the 90/10 rule. 90% of the time commercial weather radar in a time loop will show the shape, intensity, direction, and growth or death of the storm. I've already said that but to expand on it, one radar image doesn't show the storm track, nor does just looking at the radar on your boat.

Then it's a matter of deciding how to avoid the worst of it. If it's a severe line squall, punch through. If it's roundish, avoid it, or get behind it. If it's growing keep that in mind when plotting an avoidance course.

I've learned the hard way to shorten sail before a storm. Every time I waited, it was too late- impossible to shorten sail while controlling the boat.

Recurveman, did you get the answers you were looking for?

[AllenRbrts]

If you intend to cruise the east coast, Bahamas or Caribbean , invest some money in a subscription to Chris Parker’s marine weather center. He does a good job forecasting not only the wind and seas but your chances of squalls.

[dannc]

Originally Posted by boatman61

What freaked me out on one July Transat from St Martin was when 3 large water spouts sprang up a couple of miles behind me and then moved in my direction..
Light wind so drifting along on my 32ftr at about 3kts.. started engine and fled at full throttle zigzagging as I tried to stay clear of their erratic progress..
Used a lot of fuel I could ill afford to with a coupla thousand miles to go.. which turned into 4K as I bypassed the Azores.

We were sailing in the Keys, I think it was Card or Black sound, and the fact that were were actually sailing was a miracle. Usually there was not enough wind. We had been sailing for an our or so, when we heard/saw not one, not two, but three water spouts to our NE, and they were moving SW, in our direction. There was not much we could do but hold our course since the sound was not really big enough to try to move out of the way of the water spouts that looked like they were going to sweep right over us. We were moving along pretty good under sail and using Mr. Perkins would not have helped.

Thankfully, the Water Spout Water Sweepers changed course a bit, we got a bit further south as they crossed our wake. They make an interesting hissing sound....

Colvin, the metal boat designer and builder, thinks he got hit by a water spout while at anchor. They heard the noise and the boat start circling. I think they had some damage but not bad.

Later,
Dan

[flightlead404]

Originally Posted by rslifkin

I also tend to watch the weather (both marine forecast and other weather sources) for a few days prior to going somewhere. If the forecast is pretty steady for a couple of days, it's likely fairly accurate. If it's changing every time they update it, the forecast is probably less accurate and I'll have a bit more concern about the weather.

Do this for flying and sailing

Its worth it to keep a record of what the forecast is on sunday, for monday through friday. Then record the monday forecast for the same time and compare and so on. By the time its weds you should have a pretty good idea what the quality of prediction is for your thursday or friday departure

[flee27]

Not to answer anything about the weather but I would be curious to know if the OP was in the gulf stream or if he stayed inside of it. If in it that could have contributed to the quick and uncomfortable sea state change.

Foster

[Rod Headlee]

What kind of rig do you have? I hate being in squalls bare poled. We bought a cutter rig just for this scenario. We hit some squalls in the gulf stream in the Florida straight. With a 90sq ft stay sail up we were good running off in 60kts of wind. We just smashed through the 10 ft seas. When the first squall hit we had a triple reef main and the stay sail, it was too much so we dropped the mainsail. The second squall was gravy. You can smell them and see them coming on radar. Having sea room is wonderful.

[Chotu]

I might also add: know the weather patterns where you are sailing.

The entire east coast is prone to afternoon and night thunderstorms in the summer. They pop up as the hot, moist air rises.

Don’t expect to have a clear night. Expect to have a thunderstorm. Then be pleasantly surprised if they miss you (which they often do because they are scattered).

Also watch for lightning on watch.

I can hardly think of a summer night on the boat where I haven’t seen lightning on the east coast. It’ll give you plenty of time to get ready once you see it.

As for lightning strikes themselves? It’s all just luck in my opinion (as a former physicist). Hard not to worry about it but it’s best not to. If it hits, it’s not well controlled and there can be side flashes inside the boat and stuff. Lots of erratic behavior due to metal in the boat and Faraday’s Law. These can kill you too. Best not to worry and stay in the most safe location on the boat. (Don’t hang onto metal during the storm)

[recurveman]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

Things can always change for the worse.

We were with 100 boats and all watched a typical summer storm grow 1km from us. No big deal. But it suddenly exploded in size and hit hard as a microburst with winds recorded at 74mph (120kph).

But let's shoot for the 90/10 rule. 90% of the time commercial weather radar in a time loop will show the shape, intensity, direction, and growth or death of the storm. I've already said that but to expand on it, one radar image doesn't show the storm track, nor does just looking at the radar on your boat.

Then it's a matter of deciding how to avoid the worst of it. If it's a severe line squall, punch through. If it's roundish, avoid it, or get behind it. If it's growing keep that in mind when plotting an avoidance course.

I've learned the hard way to shorten sail before a storm. Every time I waited, it was too late- impossible to shorten sail while controlling the boat.

Recurveman, did you get the answers you were looking for?

I have gotten many of the answers I asked for. I've got a bunch of learning to do but I think I have been pointed in the right direction.

[recurveman]

Originally Posted by AllenRbrts

If you intend to cruise the east coast, Bahamas or Caribbean , invest some money in a subscription to Chris Parker’s marine weather center. He does a good job forecasting not only the wind and seas but your chances of squalls.

I sent him an email a couple days ago and hope to hear from him soon.

[recurveman]

Originally Posted by flee27

Not to answer anything about the weather but I would be curious to know if the OP was in the gulf stream or if he stayed inside of it. If in it that could have contributed to the quick and uncomfortable sea state change.

Foster

I was not in the gulf stream.

[Discovery 15797]

First, and most importantly, if you came out on the other side then you didn't fail. But you did learn a valuable lesson and that is what is important, and hopefully you learned to feel more confident in your boat's capabilities as well as your own.

IMHO, anyone can jump on a sailboat and make it go somewhere. Sailing is not difficult as can be witnessed by the countless youtube buskers pining for your money.

IMHO, anyone wanting to make passages the most important thing is learning and studying the weather patterns in the passage area. PredictWind is a good tool (Windy is OK if you have internet) but remember that PredictWind shows prognostic computer-generated computer models and only with an 8km resolution unless you have a "professional" subscription. It is great for ocean passages, OK for coastal (5-25 nm) passages, and almost useless for inland waters. But it is only part of the equation. Synoptic weather charts are downloadable and should also be reviewed frequently; especially during longer passages and compared to the prognostic charts. Also, download and read the GMDSS bulletins for the region of your passage. There's a lot of great forecasting info in those bulletins. Finally, learn about cloud formations, and predictors. You may not be able to avoid all squalls and they can be unpredictable, but the more you are in tune with the weather around you, the better the sailor you'll be.

Secondly, I also think learning and studying navigation (e.g., reading pilot charts, current charts, etc.) is critically important to a safe passage and especially passage planning.

There are people who specialize in weather routing with good success. But sometimes reality looks very different from the cockpit in the ocean as compared to what someone hundreds or even thousands of miles away envisions. Someone who has never experienced a bogi walu in Fiji doesn't know the conditions created are more treacherous than anything I've ever encountered in the open ocean, or that the chop between Guam and Rota can make you feel like you're in a pot of boiling water, or regardless of predictions, making the "big left turn" out of the Strait of Juan de Fuca into the Pacific is the closest you can come to hell on earth for 7-10 days almost any time of the year.

Good luck on your future voyages.

[skipgundlach]

Originally Posted by AllenRbrts

If you intend to cruise the east coast, Bahamas or Caribbean , invest some money in a subscription to Chris Parker’s marine weather center. He does a good job forecasting not only the wind and seas but your chances of squalls.

That presumes a working SSB - or being within cell coverage.

Otherwise, what he said, in spades. 14 years, including 2 in a work yard, before selling Flying Pig (admiral lost her nerve in just such a squall); I'd not set out before hearing his opinion, twice a day.

But, to your issue/conundrum/embarrassment:

That area is noted for squalls. My personal solution is to hand-steer initially, and then let Otto drive, keeping the wind not less than 120°, which allows most of the energy to driving, and not so much to heeling.

The reason for initial hand steering is the start of a squall is frequently not-constant, so adjustments are made as those occur. Better to have a slight abeam than get a crash jibe! Once under Otto, we have a point-and-shoot handheld which I use to make fine adjustments to keep the wind in the right quadrant.

My last squall was very near there; the admiral was literally shaking, poor thing. I was having a ball.

[OnePea]

We have had good luck with Chris Parker for accurate, detailed forecasts.

[Peeew]

As others have posted above air mass thunderstorms are not precisely predictable. Unlike frontal storms they just pop up. Since you have radar, there is usually a “target” function that can show you movement of cells and likely interception point. Often you can sail around a bit and avoid the worst.
Another good option is Chris Parker weather. He can give you a forecast for your specific trip if you pay a bit and continue to watch the morning broadcast daily with various model discussions etc. He is pretty conservative as a long time sailor. And he can be very clear when models conflict and don’t offer a high confidence level.