Storm avoidance - I FAILED but need help

[boatman61]

If you FAILED... this thread would not exist..

[Flagfish]

That actually sounds a lot more like a squall than a storm, so the long-term forecast may still have been accurate as shorter-length squalls can form within the bigger weather system. These squalls are generally not predictable more than a few hours out. Luckily, though, they also don't last long enough to build seriously big waves.

Luck of the draw, bro. Random chance. The sea is a fickle mistress.

[Flagfish]

Originally Posted by Madehn

not a lot of direct experience but I have heard that many cruising sailors reef in at night even if weather is good since they feel that they cannot detect the storms ahead as there is much less in the way of visual clues that the weather is worsening. That way they are prepared sail wise if things go a bit sideways-- downside is that you are slower of course. interested to hear what the group consensus on this practice is.

What? No. Reefing at night would double your time at sea.

[carstenb]

Originally Posted by Flagfish

What? No. Reefing at night would double your time at sea.

We always reef down for the night - no exceptions. We are double-handing and that means there is only one person on watch at any time.

So that means he/she is single-handing and with a reefed down main, sudden squalls don't present any problems.

re reefing doubling hour time at sea - well, we like to be at sea so a few extra days is not a problem. We have lots of time so if a passage takes 20 days or 22 days, we don't consider it an issue. Even with Capri in the second reef she usually does between 6 and seven 7 knots so that's fast enough for us.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Flagfish

What? No. Reefing at night would double your time at sea.

Is that not why one sails.. Allegedly..
No schedules, escape the hectic humdrum pace of life ashore..
Its why I enjoy being at sea, if it blows up a bit.. heave to, brew up and chillax with a good book.

[rupertfb]

Chad - I deliver boats up and down the E Coast/Caribbean and skipper larger Cats in the Caribbean ....you are sailing a FP Saba 50':

I spend weeks at a time with owners. Use all metereological sources available. Windy is my 'go to' for short coastal work BUT (especially mid summer off the E Coast) you need to read the NOAA forecasts - they mention all the ugly stuff that you often don't see in the Apps. A great - and free - APP for NOAA forecasts is 'MARINE FORECAST', as well as brushing up on your deeper metereological knowledge (see comments from DOCKHEAD above).

Learn how to use your radar to 'see' squalls at night, and quickly predict where they are going. You certainly need to know how to tune the radar. You will get better data out of it than the 'auto tune' functions. This is an excellent YouTube video to introduce you to radar tuning: "How to set up a boat radar system properly | Motor Boat & Yachting"

Just as you have done - I have experienced viscious storm cells off the E Coast far in excess of the forecasts. I frequently call the position and max windspeeds in to the USCG (on #22) so that they may push out broadcasts to assist other sailors.

Keep studying, reef early, and drop me a line if you'd like to discus any of these points.

Rupert F-B
Delivery, Boat Surveys, Acquaints
Charleston, SC

[boatman61]

Oz weather predictions carry the provisio..
Wind speeds and conditions may be 40% above predictions.
I like that admission of fallibility..

[alitaptap]

Three times hit by the unexpected but reading the signs helped for the 2nd and 3rd.

#1 racing in the Malacca Strait aboard a 57-foot Tayana, just before midnight, hit by 50+knots with very heavy rain, rough seas for 40 minutes. No prior experience but noted after the fact that the wind shifted away from forecast and dropped significantly about 45 minutes before the blast and I could smell the rain 5 minutes before it arrived. We were about to launch a spinnaker to take advantage of the lighter breeze now from behind . . . fortunately we saw the water boiling aft just in time to quash the idea of the spinnaker, reefed the main but got very wet while taking the spinnaker below. The change in wind direction and the smell of the rain should have been the cue. The yacht took the storm in its stride while we dried out below later.

#2 racing Subic Bay to Boracay aboard a 36-foot Beneteau First, 10pm'ish, there was no change in wind direction but an obvious lull, I was telling my crew-mates on the rail about the almost similar Malacca Strait experience and I shouted back to the helm to be prepared for something, within a minute we saw the water starting to boil off the port beam and we were just in time to drop the jib while reefing of the main was accomplished during the first couple of minutes of the 40+knots of wind and rain, it lasted maybe 30 minutes overall. The yacht took the storm in its stride while we stayed wet on the rail, and we won the race.

#3 delivering a 46-foot Tiki catamaran Vietnam to Philippines. Windy forecast for a SE breeze throughout the afternoon and night; before sundown the breeze had changed to SW and weakened, we had noticed a cloud mass growing over the mountains near Kota Kinabalu most of the afternoon and initially thought nothing of it, in the half-light after sundown the cloud mass was observed to be apparently falling off the mountain and moving behind us . . . but we were wrong, when I smelt the rain I ordered sails dropped to bare poles, accomplished just as the first gust hit. Three hours of 50+knots up the stern with big seas and a Tiki catamaran, with hulls tied together with sheet lines, was the scariest adventure I have had, but the yacht took the storm in its stride while we were soaked to the skin.

Could radar have helped? Probably, but we did not have it and for me the observation of the wind change from forecast was the first warning signal and then of course the smell of the rain.

In all three cases the yachts survived, without damage . . . the same cannot be said for the sanity of all the crew

Summary: at night you usually cannot see it coming but if the forecast is for steady breeze then any noticeable change is probably because of a local storm system; reef and prepare; and, know that the yacht will survive. The old saying was “keep a weather eye out”; on the ocean the saying is as valid today as it was when first recorded 300 years ago.

[Nicholson58]

We learned this lesson the hard way Nova Scotia to Barr Harbor. Nearly killed us in a 45 knot blow/storm with 20 foot seas, lobster pots, in the dark. Near death entering Barr Harbor. When coast hopping, you have the ability to wait. Any storm predicted, we stay anchored. Never leave safe harbor with crap on the way.

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by Nicholson58

We learned this lesson the hard way Nova Scotia to Barr Harbor. Nearly killed us in a 45 knot blow/storm with 20 foot seas, lobster pots, in the dark. Near death entering Barr Harbor. When coast hopping, you have the ability to wait. Any storm predicted, we stay anchored. Never leave safe harbor with crap on the way.

On Lake Ontario (and in FL) "August" means "crap on the way." Any day over 82F will come with predictions for chance of severe storms. Way up north here, if we stayed in harbor or at anchor with these common forecasts we'd spend all of August sitting around. Thus, it becomes imperative to watch the actual radar, and most of the racers and old salts can read the sky, and the experienced know how to duck and weave...and to shorten sail early...unless of course you're racing.

[rslifkin]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

On Lake Ontario (and in FL) "August" means "crap on the way." Any day over 82F will come with predictions for chance of severe storms. Way up north here, if we stayed in harbor or at anchor with these common forecasts we'd spend all of August sitting around. Thus, it becomes imperative to watch the actual radar, and most of the racers and old salts can read the sky, and the experienced know how to duck and weave...and to shorten sail early...unless of course you're racing.

It's not just the hot late summer days either, although it happens far more this time of year. We got whacked with a nasty thunderstorm out of nowhere last July (early July, 10 AM, 68* F air temps). Checked radar after we got in and in a span of 8 minutes we went from no activity anywhere in the area (and no storms in the forecast) to a solid orange blob a few miles wide that formed out of nothing right on top of us. We weren't in any real danger, but it certainly wasn't a fun ride and making the entrance into Pultneyville (our destination, we were fairly close when it hit) was interesting in the confused 3 - 4 footers that we had by that point (taking them off both stern quarters on the final run in).

[Iron E]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Barometer can also be useful --

This. I feel there are quite a few sailors in my Marina that put them on the wall because they look good.

Weather can be unpredictable. A well calibrated Barometer can give you a nice warning. Log Barometer readings every hour, and if you have a portable electronic Barometer, you can set a warning for drops.

[CarlF]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned you were sailing near Cape Hatteras! This area has been known for unexpected gales for centuries. Unformed lows carried by the jet speed come off the coast between Charleston and Norfolk and explode without warning as they come over the water. A 24 or even 6 hour earlier forecast will often not show them.

Sailing this region takes extra care and best to wait longer for a perfect weather window.

One new tool is the HRRR short term NOAH weather model. It's updated hourly with 3KM accuracy. The Windy App has it - I'm not sure which others. I've found it much more accurate for same day forecasts than anything else.

If you don't have a way to receive the HRRR data offshore, you could use a Garmin InReach to message a friend or family member ashore to look at HRRR and text back if there's anything to worry about. I would never go offshore without my InReach - it has so many advantages over an EPIRB or VHF for difficult situations.

[CarlF]

I'm surprised no one has mentioned you were sailing near Cape Hatteras! This area has been known for unexpected gales for centuries. Unformed lows carried by the jet speed come off the coast between Charleston and Norfolk and explode as they come over the water. A 24 or even 12 hour earlier forecast won't show them. I have a friend with 10's of thousands sea miles under his belt who considers it the most dangerous sailing area in the Western Atlantic having been caught in storms several times. He now goes East of Hatteras by 200 miles to give the area a very wide berth.

Sailing this region takes extra care and best to wait longer for a weather window.

One new tool is the HRRR short term NOAH weather model. It's updated hourly with 3KM accuracy. The Windy App has it - I'm not sure which others. I've found it much more accurate for same day forecasts than anything else.

If you don't have a way to receive the HRRR data offshore, you could use a Garmin InReach to message a friend or family member ashore to look at HRRR and text back if there's anything to worry about. I would never go offshore with out my InReach - it has so many advantages over an EPIRB or VHF.

[Sailor Sailor]

We are plagued with these squalls, along with cold front passages, in the mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. during the summer months.

Jimmy Cornell mentions this phenomena in Tropical Squalls subheading of the Winds and Currents of the World chapter of World Cruising Routes, as follows:

"The wind is usually light or calm and the atmosphere oppressive...Suddenly, there is a blast of wind from an easterly direction, which on average rises to 25 - 30 knots, although occasionally it can be much stronger. Shortly after the blast of wind, it starts to rain heavily. Such squalls last on average about half an hour, although sometimes they may last longer. The barometer does not indicate their approach, therefore they can only be detected visually, although they do show up on radar. As some of these squalls can be quite vicious, it is prudent in squall prone areas to reduce sail at night, when their approach is more difficult to detect."

NOAA weather radio seems to do a good job of tracking and predicting arrival times of these, if you still have reception where you are.