Storm avoidance - I FAILED but need help

[recurveman]

So......our last passage was from Charleston SC to Beaufort NC. I looked at PW and Windy and both had the wind being a max 12-15 knots coming from behind and waves were to start out at 1-2 feet and end up at 3-4 feet but all were going to be following. That looked good to me so we took off early in the morning for our trip. Well into the night we had a storm come upon us that was a leaning experience to say the least. Rain was coming down from all directions, lightning was coming from all directions and the winds were sustained above 45+ knots for what seemed like hours but it was probably 20 minutes with gusts into the mid 50's. Waves seemed like I was on the deadliest catch but they were probably honest 10 foot waves. Now when this happens in the pitch black the fun level is well south of zero.

I have a few questions. First, how do I avoid this from happening again? I have radar but not sure how to use it for avoiding storms like this. Second, Is lightning a real concern? It scares me to death. I'm not really afraid for my life but I have concerned my boat is going to get struck and cause an epic amount of issues. Third, what weather apps can I use that will predict the storms? I have storm radar but that only goes out about 5 hours so that isn't enough. Fourth, what is the best way to get info while under passage (iridium, get internet somehow?). Fifth, How much can boats really take? When is it time to get scared? I felt safe in my boat while heading into the waves but I was expecting a big wave to hit us from the side at anytime

Sorry for all the questions but I think you guys understand what I'm trying to avoid from happening again.

Chad

[Tetepare]

It's pretty simple. I use Weather Underground, but any will do.

Predictions beyond about 4 hours: see what prediction says. If high chance of storms is predicted, the sunny skies now may be not so insightful.

Predictions when there are already storms around: look at the storm tracks on the 2 hour loop. See which ones are headed your way. Comparing with your location, speed, and wind direction (if under sail) determine if you should run, cut under, cut over, or punch through. We did just that this past weekend, heading through the edge of the storm to reach the back side and allow it to slide north of us.

Predictions of "unsettled weather" and "severe storms" when it's otherwise nice. Means storms can pop up just about anywhere and get nasty quick. Stay close to harbor, or at anchor, or wherever you're comfortable. Watch radar constantly to identify nearby pop-ups, and avoid as appropriate.

[rslifkin]

I also tend to watch the weather (both marine forecast and other weather sources) for a few days prior to going somewhere. If the forecast is pretty steady for a couple of days, it's likely fairly accurate. If it's changing every time they update it, the forecast is probably less accurate and I'll have a bit more concern about the weather.

[skipmac]

Radar. Limited experience with older units but generally radar will show rain storms and you should be able to estimate how heavy the rain based on the strength of thereturn. Depending on the radar unit you may see heavy rain storms 20-40 miles away. Watch them for a while and you can get a good idea of the speed and direction of the storm.

With this information, depending on the size of the storm, the direction and speed of the storm you might be able to dodge the storm or at least avoid the worst of it. However the radar won't give you any details on wind strength associated with the storm.

[boatman61]

Storm cells on the water are near impossible to predict a long way ahead.. they form and disappear to quickly..
Take the one that appeared off Corsica then swept in to devastate the island.. I believe they had only 4 minutes notice of the event.
Prepare for the worst, enjoy the best.

[Dockhead]

That kind of weather -- thermal, convective, land systems -- is not usually picked up in the GFS model, so Passage Weather, Windy, etc., won't help. You have to look for signs of that yourself, and to do that you have to dig deeper into weather knowledge. CAPE is probably the most useful metric for predicting the risk of convective squalls, but you will have to read some weather books and bone up on it in order to make sense of it.

If the conditions are right for that kind of weather, it's a good idea to keep your eye on the radar so that you at least have time to reef before something hits. If you have a mobile phone connection, weather radar from a land station, read on your phone, can be extremely useful. Barometer can also be useful -- this kind of system is often foretold by a few minutes by a sudden drop in pressure.

The good news is that this kind of weather is not usually all that challenging. It usually blows up suddenly and passes quickly, and therefore can't create a dangerous sea state. Just reef down and ride it out. Run off if you have sea room. Or heave to.

I'm not a big fan of heaving to as a storm tactic for really big weather, but for a summer thunderstorm heaving to is great if you don't feel like sailing in it. Usually you can just go below and make a cup of tea and wait for it to blow over.

As to lightning -- yeah, it can be dangerous, but there's not much you can do about it, other than keep a spare GPS in a cookie tin in the oven just in case.

What can a boat take? More than we can. 10 foot waves will not be a challenge for any kind of reasonably oceangoing cruising boat. The waves become dangerous when they break heavily, and that normally can't happen in deep water in a short duration squall, unless you're in some kind of wind over tide situation. Absent gnarly wind over tide or tidal race situations, dangerous breaking seas normally don't occur in deep water in less than about Force 9 or 10 sustained over some time and over a long enough distance. THAT kind of weather is well predicted by the GFS model, so you will see in Passage Weather, Windy, etc. well ahead of time.

[Madehn]

not a lot of direct experience but I have heard that many cruising sailors reef in at night even if weather is good since they feel that they cannot detect the storms ahead as there is much less in the way of visual clues that the weather is worsening. That way they are prepared sail wise if things go a bit sideways-- downside is that you are slower of course. interested to hear what the group consensus on this practice is.

[Macdyver]

Originally Posted by Madehn

not a lot of direct experience but I have heard that many cruising sailors reef in at night even if weather is good since they feel that they cannot detect the storms ahead as there is much less in the way of visual clues that the weather is worsening. That way they are prepared sail wise if things go a bit sideways-- downside is that you are slower of course. interested to hear what the group consensus on this practice is.

Depends, where I'm sailing and how many crew I've got with me, but I will throw in a preemptive reef in the main at night pretty commonly. A bit slower, but I know I'm ready if some bit of weather sneaks up on me.

[MicHughV]

As above, I've done many an offshore trip and have often been nailed by these "thunderstorms". which typically arrive late in the afternoon or early evening, sometimes even late evening.
My experience is that they are usually short lived...20-30 minutes, during which time wind speeds and wave height can jump up quickly.
I sometimes try to sail thru' them with shortened sails, but most often, just take everything down and let it blow me whereever. I kinda like 'em, as it washes the boat down.

Typically, within an hour after, seas quieten down again, and often there is no wind at all.

At night, while you might not be able to see the rain clouds coming, you can usually see the lightning and smell the rain, at least I can, which can give you a 10 minute warning.

The first ever time I got nailed by one, I was a bit panicky, but these days, I take it in stride, and so will you.

[accomplice]

I've been bitten by forecasts before too -- twice in that very area. I suggest looking not only at the wind forecasts, but also at the gust forecasts and at the nearby presence of fronts -- look at the surface pressure forecasts and at where there are changes in wind direction on the wind forecasts.

Wind isn't the danger that sea state can be. Common wisdom holds that wind, over time, across fetch makes for nasty seas. While I don't disagree with that, I've found that the worst is from changes (particularly acceleration) in the winds. I've also found large, stable seas less problematic than unstable, growing seas.

For short term heavy wind, shorten sail and, if needed and possible, adjust course. Bring the center of effort of your sails further down and closer to the center of the boat. Longer term wind storms may call for additional tactics -- and tend to be better forecasted.

In general, most boats can handle more than their crew can. Over time you will learn how to setup the boat for optimal comfort (and safety) in different conditions. Read, and try different things -- different sail combinations, points of sail, motoring/not, etc.. You'll figure out what works for your boat in different conditions, and it may surprise you.

Also, one becomes accustomed to different conditions. The same 10ft seas that you found scary at night you might shrug off in the daytime, especially after you have sailed through seas twice as big. Rain and darkness compound the psychological effect. Furthermore, if you have good crew protection from the elements, it can make the same conditions feel less threatening.

How do you avoid it? Short of never venturing offshore, you cannot avoid it altogether, but you can reduce the likelihood and make it less of an event when it does happen as described above.

Lightning? Ensure your mast is well bonded to grounding plate(s). Obviously don't dangle your toes off the transom swim platform

Weather apps? I have downloaded GRIBs for use days later -- they just become obsolete! I use inReach with a trusted person on the other end and PredictWind for routing.

Radar can be good for sighting and sometimes dodging squall lines, but with a bigger system all it gives you is a little more warning of the rain.

As far as when to get scared, see my thoughts above.

[chris mac]

Use of a weather ap ahead of time is good. But go beyond the wind and wave predictions. Check for rain and thunderstorm percentages, and the cape index.
It takes a while to learn and understand how it all works together, and one day I my figure it out [emoji39] but it does give you a deeper understanding.
Once out there, keep an eye on any clouds, which way they are moving, and anything building.
Radar helps with this alot, but again there is alot of practice involved

[MicHughV]

Back in the day, when I (and many others) first started to sail the US east coast, there was very little in the line of marine weather forecasting. There was certainly no internet, no weather maps or apps, etc....pretty much your only source for marine weather, was the NOAA forecasts available on your vhf. If things looked relatively good outside, you took off.
99.9% of the time, I'd have a good trip. If the wind direction or strength changed, I altered course to suit. Occasionally, I had to heave too outside an inlet to avoid a night entry.

These days, there is too much dependence on the gazillion of weather apps available. Folks try to interpret every last knot of wind speed, direction, wave height, etc.

I see this at my marina. Folks planning to go somewhere, will spend weeks, days and hours poring over weather data and then consulting with fellow sailors. They are looking for that 1 in a million perfect day, with perfect winds and sea less than 2'.
In the end, they don't go anywhere, as they get overloaded with weather data.

To me, the weather is the weather is the weather. It is never constant. It can change by the hour, the day, etc. Even the best forecasts are rarely accurate beyond a few hours.

For the most part, summer time sailing is fine. That the weather will be variable is the only constant. Hurricanes are predicted many days in advance, so need to worry about that.

Don't let yourself get bogged down by information overload. Seems like most people these days, just want to get from A to B in the shortest time, forgetting, that sometimes you have to go to C to get to B. That's sailing. Straight line trips are for powerboats with big engines.

[steffan]

We have Sirius Marine, which lets us see real-time weather radar at a scale beyond what our own radar would pick up (if we had it). I can't say we've been in a situation where it's saved our bacon, but we have used it to watch individual storm cells.

https://www.siriusxm.com/marine/coverage-map

[Orion Jim]

The old adage, reef early and often, has some merit but I only do so in unstable weather. I never routinely reduce sail at night. I’m a singlehander so the longer I spend on a passage the greater the chance of encountering a real storm. I have found it best to sail as efficiently as the sea state and weather allows.

[boatman61]

I reef the main at night on long passages (hate harbour hopping), that way any sail work is confined to the cockpit.
I'm usually solo or +1 who is invariably someone not capable of picking me up if I went over.
Not that going to the mast or bow in a sea/blow at night overly bothers me, I'm just lazy..
Also... no big rush, I like it out there unlike many..