wind direction vs. gust direction predictions

[markxengineerin]

Looking at the same model (PWG in PredictWind), there are times when the predicted gusts are in a totally different direction than the predicted normal wind at the same time and location. How should one interpret this/ what explains it?

[chrisr]

fairly easily actually

as one of the best forecasters in the business - bob mcdavitt - puts on all his blogs "Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world."

iow weather is often subject to chaos and any predictions are only accurate while they are accurate. when they aren't...they aren't

simple isn't it !

cheers,

[Tin Tin]

No idea. My guess though is that in unsettled weather particularly with local thunderstorms present, wind direction and strength can vary significantly within seconds. How any model can cope with this I don't know, unless this is done to represent the presence of unsettled weather....maybe.