Real Probability of Death Passaging the N. Atlantic

[boatman61]

If you look for statistics for souls lost at sea, migrants are gonna raise the numbers exponentially.

[Jammer]

Other adventure sports may provide a more useful point of comparison.


There are thought to be 2.5 million people active in recreational scuba diving each year in the USA. DAN statistics show typically around 50 fatalities involving recreational scuba diving, annually, though this possibly reflects an undercount since there is no mandatory reporting, and possibly reflects an overcount since medical problems that occur while scuba diving are counted as scuba diving fatalities. (e.g. if you get a heart attack while riding a bicycle no one counts it as a bicycling fatality)


This works out to around one fatality per 50,000 participants each year, which is broadly similar to most mainstream sporting activities.


The transat fatality rate of 1 per 1,000 people crossing suggested by the OP would be comparable to assumed-risk activities like hang gliding or motorcycle racing.


I have reached an age where many of my former peers -- sadly, far more than 1 in 1000 -- have died from pointless and tragic things unrelated to any sort of adventure activities, so I see this through a different lens.

[TPG]

I am more worried about coastal sailing than offshore. Sure more bad stuff happens closer to shore because there are more sailors. But the offshore stories are the ones we hear about.

That being said, I think it's important to preach safety and preparedness regardless of your situation. And try not to live your life in fear.

[LakeSuperior]

Originally Posted by Jammer

The transat fatality rate of 1 per 1,000 people crossing suggested by the OP would be comparable to assumed-risk activities like hang gliding or motorcycle racing.

I actually suggested a rate of 1 fatality per 1000 passages. If you assume 4 sailors per boat then the rate would be 1 fatality per 4000 people crossings. However, one might assume something like 1 to 4 sailors per boat.

I used passages so that I could make a comparison with the NTSB automobile accident rate where one might assume 1 to 4 passengers per car.

[El Pinguino]

One dead this year in the ARC, two boats abandoned.

I don't know a lot of 'single handers' however one I knew disappeared north west of Chile in 2009, one was lost in the Indian Ocean east bound from SA to Thailand about 2012, one in the Tasman in December last year - Tasmania to NZ.
I know one who made it from Ecuador to NZ last year without dying.

I've met maybe 6 or 7 others - dunno what happened to them .

High risk? maybe..

[grantmc]

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

Now consider that from the NTSB there are 1.34 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles. If each vehicle is driven at an average of 40 miles per hour then it is roughly 1.34 deaths per 104,000 days of driving or 0.0013 percent chance of a death in a car per 24 hours of driving.

....

I used passages so that I could make a comparison with the NTSB automobile accident rate where one might assume 1 to 4 passengers per car.

Not sure LS if you're NTSB is Canadian or American. But the level of vehicle deaths per distance traveled varies dramatically depending upon the country. Figures aren't published for many countries but Wikipedia provides a table.

The following, reproduced from above. are the number of deaths per billion vehicle kilometres:
Australia 5.2
Belguim 7.3
Canada 5.1
Denmark 3.9
Finland 5.1
France 5.8
Germany 4.2
Japan 6.4
Malaysia 16.2
Mexico 27.5
New Zeeland 7.2
Norway 3.0
South Korea 13.8
Sweden 3.3
UK 3.8
USA 7.3

And so I am wondering (tongue in cheek) if I left to travel across the Atlantic from Mexico whether I would be considerably safer by boat? Or perhaps leave from Oslo? And are we safer travelling by car, bus or truck?

The reality of course is that there is no basis to make such safety predictions as there's no requirement to register any voyages to anywhere. There is no data available of ocean crossings.

Although I do appreciate your attempt, and it provides for a good discussion.

In your first post you make the point below. I think this assertion is something we see too often, not just in threads but Youtube especially. There is risk, and the risk is real.

It is a real risk when you're out on a lonely ocean and the only thing holding you from sinking 5 miles to the bottom of the sea is a very thin quantity of stuff keeping the water out.

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

...]In a recent thread and in older threads new sailors have been very much urged to go for it, ignore the naysayers, damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead. Any posters voicing even a hint of caution or reservation have been roundly castigated. Consequently, these threads seem to always come around to grapple with questions about the real risk of ocean passaging.

And Boatie made the point earlier that when a boat is lost, it typically results in multiple fatalities. Close to my NZ home the American yacht Nina was lost in 2013 and 7 souls were never seen again. Such tragedy really ups the death statistics.

[JPA Cate]

My goodness! Lord love a duck!

Go sail; love it.

None of us leave earth alive.

Ann

[El Pinguino]

My recent near death experiences
Fell off a ladder in the kitchen while checking hot water system which is in the roof space . Actually the ladder fell - I rode it down
Fell out of bed - cut ear on bedside table
Cow took exception to me interfering with its calf- gave me a poke in chest which had me fall backwards and bang my head on terra firma - that involved an ambulance and emergency department.
Sailing?
At a certain age pharting is high risk.

[Chotu]

I’d be curious what the causes of death are.

Heart attack during crossing? Does that count? Stroke? Hit with the main sheet like that couple that died fairly recently?

What about just falling overboard?

It seems the type of death should be somehow factored in in order to make a good risk assessment.

[boatman61]

Heart attack.. same effect in a car but minus collateral damage..
Stroke.. see above..
Hit by boom or sheet.. same as in a car/m'cycle, a dangerous lapse in concentration/over confidence/carelessness.
Falling overboard.. same as a m'cycle, some survive, some don't..

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Heart attack.. same effect in a car but minus collateral damage..
Stroke.. see above..
Hit by boom or sheet.. same as in a car/m'cycle, a dangerous lapse in concentration/over confidence/carelessness.
Falling overboard.. same as a m'cycle, some survive, some don't..

Well, I don’t really know about that.

With the heart attack and stroke, you are not getting medical help when you are crossing. So the effect is quite different. You are probably going to die.

That would increase the number of deaths on the boats. In a way I would consider a false increase.

Same with the concentration and overconfidence type of thing.

I guess what I meant by my post is I’m curious what the actual dangers are. And what the numbers show about that.

I feel like a lot of boating deaths can be attributed to these causes. And that they’re not caused by boating itself.

[CarlF]

This only becomes useful if you can separate the baseline risk of death for your age. A 60 year old in the US has a 6.6 per 100,000 mortality rate from all causes. Recreational boating in the US has a 5.5 fatality rate. And the average offshore cruiser is far more concerned with safety that your typical 20 year old on a jet ski with a beer in his hand.

An argument could be made that the generally healthy cruising lifestyle reduces your risk of death from other causes. People are less overweight, eat better, are more active, and appear far less prone to depression.

[LakeSuperior]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Heart attack.. same effect in a car but minus collateral damage..
Stroke.. see above..
Hit by boom or sheet.. same as in a car/m'cycle, a dangerous lapse in concentration/over confidence/carelessness.
Falling overboard.. same as a m'cycle, some survive, some don't..

My deaths per year estimate was based on a small sample of incidents. The 3 most recent deaths in 2021 and 2022 were boom strikes. The 4 deaths in the 2014 Cheeki Rafiki incident were due to the keel falling off.

My thought is that deaths due to sailing incidents and not health issues are the of most interest to this group.

[Brioche]

Originally Posted by Chotu

I’d be curious what the causes of death are.

Heart attack during crossing? Does that count? Stroke? Hit with the main sheet like that couple that died fairly recently?

What about just falling overboard?

It seems the type of death should be somehow factored in in order to make a good risk assessment.

Chotu's questions really get to the heart of the matter. This discussion is an important one, but the ultimate purpose is to aid decision making. Is sailing too dangerous for me to risk it? When you drill down, the causes of deaths in automobiles include things like: 1) driving recklessly for conditions, and 2) theater guy's bad driving. You can control your own driving, but you can't control the other guy. A lot of people get killed or injured because of someone else's driving.

On the other hand, deaths at sea result on the whole from conditions over which we have some degree of control, such as weather routing, equipment maintenance/failure, single-handing in remote areas, and the like.

A big risk in driving is that you may be hit by a sleepy, drunk, or reckless driver. On the other hand, when you sail, these days you can largely forecast the weather you are likely to meet, you can choose the boat you take your risks in, and you can choose how carefully you evaluate the boat before sailing.

However, the risk from the "other guy" comes when a passenger ships with a skipper and puts trust in the skipper's preparedness, or a crews put trust in each other.

Bottom line is you have a lot of control over the level of risk you take on a boat, but when you drive on a highway there is an underlying risk of the unexpected that you have little control over.

[Chotu]

Brioche: exactly. The numbers really need a setting. A background. A backstory. The raw numbers by themselves don’t really tell the story.

Coming from the United States to Europe, I had always figured if the boat failed completely, as long as you had enough supplies, you would still make it. Lots of boats we lose over here end up in Ireland and whatnot.