Real Probability of Death Passaging the N. Atlantic

[Cynara]

We cruised from 1985 to 1988 we didn't run into any that weren't prepared. Of course there was no gps, plotters, satellite phones, etc. Maybe we had to be more prepared.

[JPA Cate]

The loss of the Nina, was so sad. Such a beautiful vessel, lost with all hands... Rest in peace.

However, all timber boats are rarer today than in years past, and the causes for sinking are different. Since I've been involved in CF -- one of the years I was in surgery in the US -- more boats have been lost due to rudder failures leading to water ingress than any other cause. Some have been lost due to grounding accidents with subsequent keel failure; some to delamination (including high end ones, Polina Star III ); some to unknown causes. I have the feeling, but cannot substantiate it, that the inexperienced people who take underbuilt boats across oceans without realizing they are fragile, till they suddenly see them bending and understand that is a sign of dangerousness , are more at risk than those in older, more conservatively constructed boats.

A boat can be of modern construction and be sound, and a new beaut boat can be constructed today, but low end production boats seem to me to be built for occasional gentle wind and sea states, and therefore, rambunctious ocean passages are not their forte. Not that they can't do them, if the weather gods are kind, but those mischievous thugs are not always kind.

When that is the case, the inexperienced skipper is at a disadvantage--and so is his/her boat! To me, that is why seamanship is so important: good seamanship (knowing how to help the boat through the situation she is in right now!) can see you through. Or not.

None of us leave the earth alive.

Ann