Boat sales and the coming reccesion.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by slowNlow

Suspect monohull values will crater, cruising multi’s will cool and performance cruising multi’s will remain strong.

Three or four major YouTube(rs) dumping their condos in favor of daggared PC’s reflect a trend and will help drive the market.

Well, perhaps wishful thinking on my part as I have a daggared PCC that I plan to list in october... upgrading to a new PCC.

Mainstream production monohulls are mass market and by definition is where most buyers are, so price changes here will likely be less dramatic.

Niche brands will suffer , recessions tend to hurt high end brands most. Performance cruising cats outside charter are quite a niche market with few buyers at the best of times.

As I mentioned already high end brands are seeing significant discounts from asking to selling as wealthy cash rich buyers are getting nervous.

The guy selling a mainstream mono will do “ ok” as demand is good in that bracket. Mobo owners will loose their shirt.

[slowNlow]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Mainstream production monohulls are mass market and by definition is where most buyers are, so price changes here will likely be less dramatic.

Niche brands will suffer , recessions tend to hurt high end brands most. Performance cruising cats outside charter are quite a niche market with few buyers at the best of times.

As I mentioned already high end brands are seeing significant discounts from asking to selling as wealthy cash rich buyers are getting nervous.

The guy selling a mainstream mono will do “ ok” as demand is good in that bracket. Mobo owners will loose their shirt.

Interesting perspective. Counterpoint; inflation crushes low and middle class. Inverse for upper class with assets or executives and business owners. X% margin targets don’t change, prices go up. Margin dollars increase.

The former feels like the demographic for mono’s, the latter write checks for new or used outremer 55’s.

Anyone have a feel for how orderbooks are holding up? Sea wind, balance all still seem to be out into 2026ish for next available.

[dhenline]

Seawind, balance , outremer were all really booked up before the pandemic ended and the recession set in. I suspect we will not see the order book fall back to earth as much as it slowly drift down. or Customers with deposits will look to get out of the contract. boat makers would likely try and accomodate them since asking money from someone who doesnt have it is difficult.

There are basically two new nautitechs in FL for sale. One did go pending at 100K off the original 1 million asking price. the other one is a brand new and has been sitting around since the boat show">Miami boat show.

One year ago, the Amel dealer mostly laughed at me when I asked to purchase a boat new becuase of the time frame. Now there are three late model ones for sale.

time will tell who is right but I have decided not to rush into anything and see what a year brings

I would like to hear from more people who do surverys since they would see the trend before a schmuck like me picks up on it.

[Chris31415]

Originally Posted by Celestialsailor

I'm posting on a thought provoking topic with the recent increase in boat sales since Covid hit. But with most concerns of the economy, it's not all that simple. In the chart below you can see how the S&P is closely tied to boat sales...

Interesting, but the graph only goes to 2016. Do you know the source of the sales numbers? It would be interesting to update it into 2022.

[Drinky Crow]

Boat pricing here continues stupid high. Like 28k for a 43 yr old Mirage 27, 27k for a Mirage 26 of same vintage and 22k for a 37 yr old Hunter 25.5.
2 yr ago I paid 19k for my 37 yr old C&C everbody thought it was a steal.
It wasn't.

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by Chris31415

Interesting, but the graph only goes to 2016. Do you know the source of the sales numbers? It would be interesting to update it into 2022.

My apologies for my late at night thread starter. I can tell you there is a ton of information out there. I'm hoping that others here do a little research and post some other graphs/charts.
I had heard years ago that the S&P500 and Boat sales were tied. I have no reason to believe it is any different now.

[CaptTom]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

...Our local marina and several other marina's in the area have all been bought out by a big conglomerate. Marina rates have been jacked thru' the roof. Transient rates are exorbitant, etc. Insurance companies are loathe to write policies for older boats...

These are the real indicator to watch. The reality is, boat ownership is moving from middle-class recreation to a status symbol for the very wealthy.

What does this mean for boat prices? Older boats will have no value at all. New and late-model used boats will be enormously expensive, relative to where they've been in the past. There will be more dock queens and massive, over-powered and over-priced day-use fishing boats. There will be fewer cruisers.

These things are already happening. It will only accelerate.

[Celestialsailor]

I totally agree that older boats will have no value. We'll see if the larger and more expensive manufacturers lobby that insurance be dropped on those boats forcing them out of marinas.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by slowNlow

Interesting perspective. Counterpoint; inflation crushes low and middle class. Inverse for upper class with assets or executives and business owners. X% margin targets don’t change, prices go up. Margin dollars increase.

The former feels like the demographic for mono’s, the latter write checks for new or used outremer 55’s.

Anyone have a feel for how orderbooks are holding up? Sea wind, balance all still seem to be out into 2026ish for next available.

My experience from the last two recessions is , the wealthy ( as opposed to the super rich ) tend to become cautious with cash orientated transactions. Those financing often don’t care as much albeit repayments may climb, but recessions often lower interest rates.

Marina fees are rising , true , but greater interest then looks at lower quality moorings , secondary locations etc. Boaters tend to be enthusiasts and are not in it for the money.

I think we’ll see a surge of “ Covid” boats within two years , but that will be a surge. That market will dampen new boat sales also which are very high at the moment as good 2nd hand stock is hard to come by.

High end boat builders tend to have a lot of high fixed costs particularly labour and wages will be rising quite dramatically in the next few years. This squeezes their margins and coupled with increasing buyer reluctance poses a challenging market.

Middle ground has the option to drop back in size , the crazy situation of couples buying 50 footers may slow or stop , especially as marina pricing increases.

I don’t subscribe to the gloom and doom brigade , pharma and tech are doing well and order books are healthy , many countries have good tax takes and can insulate populations to some degree. It depends on how long

The war in Ukraine will be over by the winter

[Pizzazz]

I do not fully agree that older boats' will disappear. If that were the case, they would have disappeared in prior recessions already. An older boat comes with a lot of equipment that would be expensive to buy for a new boat.

It is more that with inflation and marina price increases it would become futile to spend $20k on a boat that needs $12-15k in slip fees per year. Thus, the minimum economical used boat price will increase to $25-30k for boats that have been kept up and some boats will be scrapped for sure but not any more than previous recessions.

Power boaters will go through difficult couple of years but then fuel prices should stabilize. There is no inherent reason why fuel is so expensive right now.

[mvweebles]

Originally Posted by Pizzazz

Power boaters will go through difficult couple of years but then fuel prices should stabilize. There is no inherent reason why fuel is so expensive right now.

While increasingly expensive, fuel remains a lessor overall expense of ownership. An extremely common path is 20+ years of sailboat ownership, then transition to a 40-ish foot trawler, often in the $250k range. 200 engine hours would burn 600 gallons of diesel, or around $3k at current diesel prices. Not exactly a heart-stopping number in the overall balance sheet of ownership. Perhaps there is a marginal case for sail vs power based on fuel, but I doubt it's anything more than marginal. I know of 100s of people who went from sail go power. I know of one who went the other direction, and he did so for reasons other than economic (he'd never really sailed and decided it sounded liberating).

Marker for hard assets will change. Cars, bowrs, RVs, etc. Wishful thinking sailboats will be buoyed much by fuel prices. Anyone checked the price of winches and cordage lately?

[Jolly Roger]

I don’t know what to make of all this, except its speculation based on prepositions. So here's a different take...
I was going to sell my schooner and buy a “trawler,” but I’ve changed my mind. I plan to keep her, so when the politics turn even nastier than they are now, I can sail away, into the blue yonder to seek a more tranquil place.
Rather than all the gloom about boat prices, I think the gloom of authoritarianism hangs over America like the sword of Damocles, and if it drops, fine liveaboards like mine will be in great demand, because Americans will have a lot more to worry about than their boats.

[Pizzazz]

Originally Posted by mvweebles

While increasingly expensive, fuel remains a lessor overall expense of ownership. An extremely common path is 20+ years of sailboat ownership, then transition to a 40-ish foot trawler, often in the $250k range. 200 engine hours would burn 600 gallons of diesel, or around $3k at current diesel prices. Not exactly a heart-stopping number in the overall balance sheet of ownership.

My math is slightly different. [Thread Drift Warning]: I switched from sail to power based on my usage profile. Sailing for me was always the dream to sail from the West coast to the South Pacific and cruise there. I spend five years living on and off a sailboat, equipping her for the voyage (fully understanding that it was not going to happen but still it was fun) and most of my time on the water was day and weekend sails with a bunch of friends, often to Catalina and back. Always at an angle, cramped but fun... at least for the the few hours of good wind. A power boat in the Med is a totally different experience. Lot's of room, always (attractive) friends on board, easy passage making (a 350 nm one way trip from Sozopol through the Bosphorus to the Greek islands takes 16 hours), easy on the timing especially if still employed. You can always charter if desperate for a sail.

So, my math is like this. Engines have 1,000 hours on them. Let's say I put on at least 1,000 hours more before major work. 1,000 hours x 15 gallons per hour x 2 = 30,000 x 3.8 liters/gallon x $2/liter = $230k in fuel costs. It may take three to five years to run through than many hours. All other costs including oil, paint, maintenance, slip fees, insurance would be a fraction of this cost (it depends a bit on the standard of maintenance but it is tiny overall). So, say total nm will be 1,000 hours x 20 knots = 20k and total cost will be $300k. Fuel is still 75%+ of total cost of ownership.

One can easily put 20k nm on a sailboat for less than $300k. So, the real difference is time vs. cost. It would take 4,000 hours to put 20k nm on a sailboat, while on a powerboat it will take 4-5x less time, depending on speed. Hence I do not understand trawlers?!

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Celestialsailor

I had heard years ago that the S&P500 and Boat sales were tied. I have no reason to believe it is any different now.

rising stock index => increased consumer confidence and more discretionary funds => more boat sales

So to me it's a pretty obvious and predictable relationship. There is (and may be) more dramatic effects from unique occurrences: COVID, political tension and upheaval, war in Ukraine, and maybe even climate change.

Around the Great Lakes, we saw the same sort of price bump on nice boats. But we also get a seasonal variation too - more expensive in spring, prices drop in late summer/early fall. It will be interesting if recession fears peak in the fall.

Otherwise, I suspect that it's worth sitting back for maybe a year before buying, unless the boat of your dreams appears at an affordable price.

And I don't see the Ukraine invasion ending before 2023, though it may drop off the front page. It may just become a prolonged and bitter conflict, and Europe will remain on edge.

[Sailor Sailor]

Originally Posted by CaptTom

These are the real indicator to watch. The reality is, boat ownership is moving from middle-class recreation to a status symbol for the very wealthy.

True, but the very wealthy are buying the wrong boats.

Sailing has returned to being a symbol of the cool, not seen since JFK, as gauged by the "James Bond Index":

2006 Casino Royale - Bond sails a beautiful (monohull) Spirit 54...
2015 Spectre - Bond is captive aboard a beautiful (monohull) Benetti 69 metre...
2021 No Time to Die - in two scenes, Bond sails a beautiful (monohull) Spirit 46 in Jamaica...

The lesson - sailing is cool again, and judging by the movies, if you want to get a hot, beautiful, slender woman, ditch the dorky, old folks, catamaran for a beautiful, cool, elegant, graceful monohull.