Boat sales and the coming reccesion.

[slowNlow]

[QUOTE=glenvk;3664109]

Originally Posted by Celestialsailor

I'm posting on a thought provoking topic with the recent increase in boat sales since Covid hit. But with most concerns of the economy, it's not all that simple. In the chart below you can see how the S&P is closely tied to boat sales...

In 2010 at 50 years old, and very little cruising experience I was blessed with the great fortune of being able to buy a yacht in the Caribean and spend a year learning the ropes whilst continuing to work, fly in fly out. Then we, my wife and our 2 young kids went through the Panama Canal and sailed to Australia via the Pacific Islands over 12 months.

After that it took me a long time to get back in to a good job. But, I had dreamed of sailing across the Pacific since I was 15. That trip was and is and always will be one of the most memorable times of my life. Maybe the most memorable. I am so greatfull. I can only say, if you have the chance now, don't put it off waiting for better times. The best time is now, if you can. In the future you may regret not doing it when you could have done it. You will never regret doing it.

Got me getting all emotional now. My warmest regards to all.

Solid advice man

[CaptTom]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

...Also new marinas are getting built and secondary marinas are seen as competitive...

...The DIY boater is a dying breed

...The great unknown is whether Covid purchases are long or short term decisions...

You make several good points. The above three jump out at me.

1) In the US, it's almost impossible to build a new marina. It's almost impossible to build anything even near water, much less over it. And where it is possible, the land is being snatched up by developers for high-end condos.

2) Forbidding DIY drives even more people away. Especially people in the traditional cruiser demographic; those who have the time and inclination to get their hands dirty and knuckles scraped.

3) I agree that the long-term effects of COVID play into this. For example, people seem to be putting more emphasis on quality of life, rather than work. More jobs allow flexibility to work remotely. But people with lots of money still don't generally have a lot of time to spend cruising. So their boats sit in the high-end resort marina and are professionally maintained but rarely visited.

I can't see any good in that, except maybe for the venture capitalists who are buying up all the marinas.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by CaptTom

You make several good points. The above three jump out at me.

1) In the US, it's almost impossible to build a new marina. It's almost impossible to build anything even near water, much less over it. And where it is possible, the land is being snatched up by developers for high-end condos.

2) Forbidding DIY drives even more people away. Especially people in the traditional cruiser demographic; those who have the time and inclination to get their hands dirty and knuckles scraped.

3) I agree that the long-term effects of COVID play into this. For example, people seem to be putting more emphasis on quality of life, rather than work. More jobs allow flexibility to work remotely. But people with lots of money still don't generally have a lot of time to spend cruising. So their boats sit in the high-end resort marina and are professionally maintained but rarely visited.

I can't see any good in that, except maybe for the venture capitalists who are buying up all the marinas.

Looking at a cross section of my cruisers friends and their friends in our marina , I’d say very few undertake any sort of major diy project, sure people fix small things etc , but the yard itself or the roaming professionals do anything medium or larger, including bottom paint , steel work , decking , Major electrics , through hulls and plumbing and definitely any engine work. Even nearby where there is a major hard standing that allows live ins and diy, the vast majority doesn’t do heavy work themselves.

Let’s face it , most cruisers can’t wield a screwdriver properly , I do a lot of diy ( and my marina has no issue with that ) , but I notice very few of the boats around me do anything more then just simple stuff. Hence I think the diy argument is very weak and immaterial to the issue being discussed. I see no evidence the diy factor is driving people out of boating

In my experience major DIY was never an activity common place in marinas , and I’ve been in various marinas now for 35 years in four countries

Greece is certainly committed to building more marinas as it’s been flagged as an issue restraining the growth of boat tourism , it does take many years to get them built , but 3 new marinas within couple of miles of me have been approved for construction. Near/on water housing will struggle to get building permission , so most new villa construction is well back from the waters edge.

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Looking at a cross section of my cruisers friends and their friends in our marina , I’d say very few undertake any sort of major diy project, sure people fix small things etc , but the yard itself or the roaming professionals do anything medium or larger, including bottom paint , steel work , decking , Major electrics , through hulls and plumbing and definitely any engine work. Even nearby where there is a major hard standing that allows live ins and diy, the vast majority doesn’t do heavy work themselves.

Let’s face it , most cruisers can’t wield a screwdriver properly , I do a lot of diy ( and my marina has no issue with that ) , but I notice very few of the boats around me do anything more then just simple stuff. Hence I think the diy argument is very weak and immaterial to the issue being discussed. I see no evidence the diy factor is driving people out of boating

In my experience major DIY was never an activity common place in marinas , and I’ve been in various marinas now for 35 years in four countries

Greece is certainly committed to building more marinas as it’s been flagged as an issue restraining the growth of boat tourism , it does take many years to get them built , but 3 new marinas within couple of miles of me have been approved for construction. Near/on water housing will struggle to get building permission , so most new villa construction is well back from the waters edge.

This has definitely changed over the years I have been into boats and you're right most people do not know which end of a screwdriver to pick up. I have built two of my boats from steel...and we're talking a flatbed truck dropping off 20ft sheets of steel. restored from the ground up, half a dozen f/g vessels. I have been in a few yards where I had to have a yard do the labor and the result was half-assed. One of the times had the bottom sanded since there were multiple layers of bottom paint. The result was the bottom was more unfair than it had started. Then a yard rigger tried enlarging holes in tangs to accommodate Imperial size pins to my metric holes with a f#@&ing hand drill. The holes looked triangular.
A couple of things have happened. First I think it is the improved methods of navigation. The ability to buy a $99 box that fits in your hand and tells you how to go home. That let all the book reader wanna-be's into boating. Secondly...money. People can merely buy their way into boating. 50 years ago, your had to be more self-sufficient. This is why there are more marinas and more boats and why marinas are now so expensive and with no liveaboards.

Maybe that I why I loved cruising Mexico so much. It was like stepping back into time 60 years. Leaving a boat on the hard is $150@month, rather than $150@day. It is all DIYer's. You can still hire a local to help out with jobs and at least there you get to supervise the job without putting up with a holier than thou attitude found in the States.

[Cheechako]

There's always a "coming recession".

Right now employment is as good as it gets. Sales are as good as they get. Anyone who wants to work is working, and for more $ than they used to. Goods can't be produced fast enough for buyers. Workers can't be found, cops can't be hired , teachers are working elsewhere and home prices are WAY WAY too high, because we let foreign buyers take it all.

Maybe what we need is a bit of a recession.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Cheechako

There's always a "coming recession".

Right now employment is as good as it gets. Sales are as good as they get. Anyone who wants to work is working, and for more $ than they used to. Goods can't be produced fast enough for buyers. Workers can't be found, cops can't be hired , teachers are working elsewhere and home prices are WAY WAY too high, because we let foreign buyers take it all.

Maybe what we need is a bit of a recession.

I agree , I don’t think we are heading for a recession 80s style which was largely driven by unemployment. Inflation doesn’t necessarily lead to recession.

[lestersails]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I agree , I don’t think we are heading for a recession 80s style which was largely driven by unemployment. Inflation doesn’t necessarily lead to recession.

Agree with all. But I am old enough to remember the stagflation of the 1970s. Not a good thing.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by lestersails

Agree with all. But I am old enough to remember the stagflation of the 1970s. Not a good thing.

but if you look at major sectors like pharma, big tech , social media, all are projecting growth even if its slightly reduced in some cases ( largely temporarily due to supply chain issues ) , unemployment continues to fall

what we have is a commodity inflation issue ( the energy inflation is largely beginning to dissipate , my pump prices are within 20% of pre-war pricing , €1.55 litre now as of today €1.80, and this is expected to fall a bit further )

Semiconductor supply issues will ease considerably in 2023 and this will sput growth as companies fill back orders

Military suppliers are having a bumper production too, certainly here house prices are remaining strong and rental demand is up , exchequer tax take is at record levels due to companies profit rises and vat rises due to inflation, this will facilitate some personal tax reductions and rises in pensions and social welfare payments, which will cushion some effects

[lestersails]

goboatingnow - agree with you. This is a weird economic situation. The articles I am reading say that the economists* just don't know what to make of it and it is far from clear where it is headed. At least for the US economy, the stimulus may have been just what the doctor ordered to keep things from collapsing, then the release of pent up demand (which has overwhelmed some sectors, like airlines) wiped out unemployment and inflation kicked in. It is definitely weird.
Buying a boat still seems like a good idea to me...

[SV-Viento]

Originally Posted by lestersails

Buying a boat still seems like a good idea to me...

Buying a boat ALWAYS seems like a good idea waiting for our next boat but have ideas for the next couple beyond that.

[Celestialsailor]

When I was boat shopping, I used a few different resources to see what was out there. One was ebay sailboats. Before the start of Covid you might see about 125 boats listed During Covid, it slowly shrunk down to 17 at one point. I noticed today it was at 47. So it seems to be trending to more available. Still, I don't see anything over $40k which is weird.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Celestialsailor

When I was boat shopping, I used a few different resources to see what was out there. One was ebay sailboats. Before the start of Covid you might see about 125 boats listed During Covid, it slowly shrunk down to 17 at one point. I noticed today it was at 47. So it seems to be trending to more available. Still, I don't see anything over $40k which is weird.

People selling expensive boats use brokers not eBay !!!

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

People selling expensive boats use brokers not eBay !!!

Accept that there was prior to this. There were boats in the $200k range. This is about apples to apples, not recreating criteria.

[cdreid]

This economy is unprecedented.. as multiple commentors have said without using those words. Ive spent some time trying to explain this to millenials and others.
We could be in the middle of a full blown recession TECHNICALLY... but we all conflate recession with "no jobs... incomes going down.. everyone losing money". This is NOT the case of this or the oncoming recession IF a technical recession comes.

Historically low unemployment.. rising wages (not enough as many investor owned businesses are incapable of adapting). All or most industries at least in the US are at 100% of possible production.. hampered by lack of workers and inability to conceptualise a worker shortage as theyve never dealt with one. Couple this with the economic war with russia and business oh so slowly adapting.

In my opinion.. and that of a lot of reputable economists... we are in the middle of a radical restructuring. We were nearing the point of 1930's america... revolution. The working classes (and yes if youre making 150k a year in a hcol area youre one of us) were near bloody revolt. I think the elites recognised that which is why interest rates werent pumped to 20% when we hit 8% inflation.. they know we need to stream wealth to the lower class before they end up in a guillotine.

But predictions? Again.. unprecedented economy. Ive studied economics.. admittedly with a political bent.. my entire life. There are Zero people on this planet who can predict the next two decades. And within that 2 decades ACTUAL ai comes online (ex programmer who started in ai in the 80s).. that will mean an even more radical shift.

You cannot predict 6 months from now. If you think you can gluck.. please dont ask your momma to let her invest her 401k in options so you can recover from losing everything.
Your best bet if you have any investments is to consider them Long term investments. Be a player you're going to get played.

Note this isnt remotely relateable to 2008. It does bear a resemblance to stagflation but the world has adapted to the russian oil sanctions and energy prices are already falling. Prices that were 100% due to speculation

[danstanford]

A sizeable chunk of those buying larger boats are either cautiously tiptoeing with their businesses or living off stock market returns. The bearishness of these positions is the opposite of what drove boat (and real estate) prices up.