Boat sales and the coming reccesion.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by cdreid

This economy is unprecedented.. as multiple commentors have said without using those words. Ive spent some time trying to explain this to millenials and others.
We could be in the middle of a full blown recession TECHNICALLY... but we all conflate recession with "no jobs... incomes going down.. everyone losing money". This is NOT the case of this or the oncoming recession IF a technical recession comes.

Historically low unemployment.. rising wages (not enough as many investor owned businesses are incapable of adapting). All or most industries at least in the US are at 100% of possible production.. hampered by lack of workers and inability to conceptualise a worker shortage as theyve never dealt with one. Couple this with the economic war with russia and business oh so slowly adapting.

In my opinion.. and that of a lot of reputable economists... we are in the middle of a radical restructuring. We were nearing the point of 1930's america... revolution. The working classes (and yes if youre making 150k a year in a hcol area youre one of us) were near bloody revolt. I think the elites recognised that which is why interest rates werent pumped to 20% when we hit 8% inflation.. they know we need to stream wealth to the lower class before they end up in a guillotine.

But predictions? Again.. unprecedented economy. Ive studied economics.. admittedly with a political bent.. my entire life. There are Zero people on this planet who can predict the next two decades. And within that 2 decades ACTUAL ai comes online (ex programmer who started in ai in the 80s).. that will mean an even more radical shift.

You cannot predict 6 months from now. If you think you can gluck.. please dont ask your momma to let her invest her 401k in options so you can recover from losing everything.
Your best bet if you have any investments is to consider them Long term investments. Be a player you're going to get played.

Note this isnt remotely relateable to 2008. It does bear a resemblance to stagflation but the world has adapted to the russian oil sanctions and energy prices are already falling. Prices that were 100% due to speculation

I fully agree, in my country forecourt prices are back to within 15% of last year. Much inflation seems entirely opportunistic rather then cost led and much talk is turning to taxing windfall profits.

I don’t see any actually recession coming , re alignment sure.

[Lake-Effect]

Yes... strange times indeed. I do hope that there are smarter hands at the wheel this time around. The mostly helpful response to the economic threat of the pandemic gives me some encouragement.

As a member of the boat-owning class and just retired, I don't fear for my own survival, but I am concerned about the generations after us, how they will fare, especially as they are stuck with the economic, climate and ecological bills for our generation's largesse.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Yes... strange times indeed. I do hope that there are smarter hands at the wheel this time around. The mostly helpful response to the economic threat of the pandemic gives me some encouragement.

As a member of the boat-owning class and just retired, I don't fear for my own survival, but I am concerned about the generations after us, how they will fare, especially as they are stuck with the economic, climate and ecological bills for our generation's largesse.

Seeing the general diligence of my kids generation now in their 30s , the planet is in good hands.