Used boat market 2nd half 2022?

[Rumrace]

While the previous US administration beat up slandered and out right told lies about us Canada Europe and Japan formed a free trade group.
The damage to Canada’s economy was measured by Province. Quebec and Ontario were in excess of 500 billion each.
Trust had been broken. When some elected official can isolate the US in trade it’s a sad day. The “ enablers tax” is 25% on US product shipments not 75% US made.
Since Elk Grove Village and Detroit got moved to Chinas economy these great old brand names are now global garbage.
The US dollar is not used as a vehicle any more. No fun exchange game making billions.
Binden 2 weeks ago got Europe to stop the 25% on US boats and cars. Production of 180,000 Wellcraft Scarab 4Winns are gone however. Jeanneau and Beneteau Yachts gone. Many European companies have removed investments sold off closed. Disappointed.
Didn’t listen

[macieknan]

Originally Posted by Rumrace

In Canada free trade with Europe and Japan changed the rules dramatically. Like 40,000 less on 40’ .

Not too worry, there is a new 10% luxury tax on boats sold in Canada valued at more than CAD $250,000, for those fortunate enough to look at new boats (not me)

Unrelated to that, I humbly submit that boat and stock markets are highly correlated - there will be more boats as folks who felt set for their retirement early this year, no longer feel so well of after recent market sell-off. Not everyone keeps their savings in paper, but a lot do.

Best deals on boats in recent US history were in 2010, couple of years after the financial crash. If recesion hits, boats will get more plentiful, because folks will see their wealth evaporated by a substantial reduction in their spending power. Inflation robs everyone, perhaps our governments excepted.

[macieknan]

Originally Posted by PinkHemiCoronet

First post on the forum. I just bought a 30' Islander mkii ready to sail for $1500 last week. That was in Ithaca, NY. Diesel motor runs like a top. Owner said he listed it for $4000 and didn't get a single inquiry. That forced him to lower the already underpriced boat.

Nice find, Congrats !!

[Baby tug]

Why anybody would buy a new boat is beyond me I can show you example after example of boats that are in awesome condition for $.20 on the dollar if not less , I recently bought a fisher 31 for 10 grand I put another 20 or 30 into it and it’ll be every bit as good as a new one for $.10 on the dollar , I can give you example after example of people doing that. finance charges and full coverage insurance give me a freaking break I’ve never had trouble getting insurance the minimum insurance that Marina requires is easy to get and cost me about $300 a year , there is a thread on this forum that talks about boats for under 30,000 I don’t know how much cheaper they could get you can practically buy them for nothing

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Chris31415

A lot of discussion about the economy and the demand side. I think the Covid inspired purchases will also play a roll.

How many of the people who bought a boat during Covid will hold onto them?

Some surely will, but I expect many will go back to what they used to do and the supply of used boats will increase and drive down prices.

This is my assessment as well Chris. We saw a big uptick in things like boats, RVs and recreational properties. People who couldn't spend their money recreating the way they were used to; i.e. travel, turned to things they could do.

With the slow return to normalcy, my bet is we will see a lot of these covid purchases come back on the market. People don't change easily. Some will have found the joy in boat ownership, but not many.

On the sustainability of geothermal, and the risk of us somehow draining the heat and causing problems. This is false. The vast majority of planetary heat comes from radioactive decay. There is some component of primordial heat, but it is small. So the earth's mantel is continually receiving new heat energy in the form of radioactive decay.

Nothing, including the Universe, is forever. But in any reasonable sense, geothermal energy is renewable.

[Baby tug]

There is a thread on this forum I don’t do the cut and paste thing but anyways the topic of the thread is Boat’s for under $30,000 it goes on for almost 300 pages if that’s not a good example of my point nothing is. The most expensive part of a boat is a new boat smell

[RichandHelen]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

It depends on what size boat. I'm expecting that interest rate hikes will cause many indebted owners of higher cost boats to want to sell by the fall.

Longer term, it seems that all these insurance hassles might see a lot of dumping of older boats.

I don't understand. If they are already "indebted", aren't they locked in at old rates? Why would this incentivize them to sell, especially if the potential buyer IS looking at a higher rate?

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by RichandHelen

I don't understand. If they are already "indebted", aren't they locked in at old rates? Why would this incentivize them to sell, especially if the potential buyer IS looking at a higher rate?

As I've already tried to explain, please consider the owner's total indebtedness - mortgages, other loans etc, as well as reduced income from investments.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Chris31415

A lot of discussion about the economy and the demand side. I think the Covid inspired purchases will also play a roll.

How many of the people who bought a boat during Covid will hold onto them?

Some surely will, but I expect many will go back to what they used to do and the supply of used boats will increase and drive down prices.

My experiences show that where pricing tends to flatten , only distressed owners tend to sell, hence the supply self restricts. New boat sales will undoubtably contract as financing plays a bigger role there. If anything that may push potential new boat purchasers into the second hand market.

We shall see

[Chris31415]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

We shall see

True.

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” -Neils Bohr

[Baby tug]

During the housing market crash I was making a living hauling new boats out of the factories meridians and Nordic tug when the housing market crashed business shut down overnight like somebody turning the switch off they closed the Meridian factory it seem like in a matter of days , one day it was booming the next day it was a ghost town if you don’t believe me look it up , I think the CEO of Chase Says the coming economic turn down is going to be a tsunami worst in history his words not mine I’m still looking for that wager

[safariKY]

Originally Posted by aqfishing

I have looked at Leopard and Balance. You can’t get a Leopard for at least 2 years, Balance not till 2026. From what I can gather most yards are pretty booked out. This may change with the current way the economy (world) is going, but it could go either way.

If you go onto the Moorings/Sunsail brokerage, there is not much available, hence I do not quite believe your comment on insurance of ex charter boats.

Things are constantly changing and anyone who says they know what’s going to happen it guessing!

So as long as the waiting lists are there, then there will be a healthy second hand market.

I personally believe this buyers market bubble will burst at some point….my guess!!!

I don’t know…I have a nice Dufour 460 (currently in charter) for sale in the BVIs. My problem now is, there are so many bookings, the broker is having a very small window to even show it. Despite inflation, a spike in airfare, and other economic factors, the human nature side of things is that after Covid and really 2 lost years, people are still willing to travel, yearn for vacations, and are willing to just go! The only reason I am selling is I bought another boat!

[Baby tug]

Originally Posted by safariKY

I don’t know…I have a nice Dufour 460 (currently in charter) for sale in the BVIs. My problem now is, there are so many bookings, the broker is having a very small window to even show it. Despite inflation, a spike in airfare, and other economic factors, the human nature side of things is that after Covid and really 2 lost years, people are still willing to travel, yearn for vacations, and are willing to just go! The only reason I am selling is I bought another boat!

Or could it be your priced at the top of the market , doesn’t take much time to show a boat, keeping track of the Boat market and buying and selling boats has been my hobby going on four decades , some Boats sell quickly some sit it’s entirely dependent on the market your in the popularity of the boat you have , I sold a Nordic tug 26 recently sold quickly pretty decent money , there’s a 38 ft trawler sitting on the market here for less money nice boat that isn’t selling , the 26 Nordic was a small trailer trawler boat the market like that

[argosail]

Originally Posted by safariKY

I don’t know…I have a nice Dufour 460 (currently in charter) for sale in the BVIs. My problem now is, there are so many bookings, the broker is having a very small window to even show it. Despite inflation, a spike in airfare, and other economic factors, the human nature side of things is that after Covid and really 2 lost years, people are still willing to travel, yearn for vacations, and are willing to just go! The only reason I am selling is I bought another boat!

I'm getting into a Dufour Classic 35, any tips? Factory support seems tough, otherwise will built and a bit better than bene's supposedly. What boat did you buy instead and what didn't you like about your Dufour?

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

As I've already tried to explain, please consider the owner's total indebtedness - mortgages, other loans etc, as well as reduced income from investments.

Even total indebtedness...inflation is actually good for people deep in debt (not that being in debt is a good thing)...because the payments are the same but the value of those payments goes down. Currently we are seeing fairly large pay increases. While pay increase are lower than inflation, if payments hold steady, that doesn't matter, it's easier to make the payments.

The issue is the Fed is trying to slow the economy. When people lose jobs and when they jack up the interest rates, offer prices are likely to start going down. It may take sellers a while to come to the realization that they have to drop the asking price but it will come.

I don't see being in debt as a driving force at most a compounding factor...ie: you lost your job and so you can't make any payments and then the offers are coming in lower because with interest rates higher people are approved for less....now in debt owners get desperate to dump ongoing expenses.