What Will Happen to Boat Pricing when Euro Is Under Par to US$ ?

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by Dkdoyle

Ouch. Back to boat prices. I think boat prices will continue to decline with the political turmoil. I have noticed in the states people looking to rent or buy boats to live on.

Saw a snippet on the BBC news recently about homelessness (in US) showing a massive rise, especially amongst first timers to that - including families . Obviously I didn't take it all at face value (it being the BBC ), but nonetheless gave pause for thought........

I guess that for every 1 who does get homeless must be 10 others hanging on by fingernails - therefore moving aboard a boat makes a lot of sense. Better than under a bridge.......at least ya have your own bucket .

......kinda reminded me of SE Asia, living on boats being associated with poverty - rather than something to aspire to! It's a funny old world.......

[delmarrey]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

......kinda reminded me of SE Asia, living on boats being associated with poverty - rather than something to aspire to! It's a funny old world.......

e.g. The back side of Hong Kong, ah!

[Dkdoyle]

Yeah the housing collapse has taken it's toll on a lot of people. For boaters we are seeing more abandoned boats which is causing grieve with cities wanting to ban people from anchoring out. Also seeing more retiree's living aboard but I don't think is so much related to the economy. Maybe some of them.

[Therapy]

Originally Posted by Capt Phil

I'm still of the opinion that aboard your own boat with the skills and experience to maintain and sail her to less dangerous waters is the answer.

Just where do you think that might be?

[Doodles]

Originally Posted by Therapy

Just where do you think that might be?

Kansas?

[delmarrey]

Originally Posted by Therapy

Just where do you think that might be?

I would say sparsely populated areas outside of typhoon/hurricane/cyclone climates. Or at least close to weather holes so one can move from one to the other seasonally. New Guinea sounds like a good spot.

[barnakiel]

Nothing will happen. The pricing is dictated by the market, not by the exchange rate.

Here, in the EU, all the South side is out of money. Just take it slow, hunt in the Med and get what you want, at the price you want.

Alas, EU is not a cat market at all.

b.

[vegasandre]

Update June 2012

Euro now under 1.24/us- heading to Parity , Oblivion, Duestchmark or whatever.

It looks like you should be able to get some good deals in a year or two in Europe on your dream boat.

[TaoJones]

I thought it would be interesting to resurrect this old thread to see what has actually occurred with the Euro:dollar cross over the course of the 14 1/2 months since the thread began. To briefly summarize what this thread is about, the OP was confident that the Euro would fall to parity with the US dollar, or even fall below par (at par, one dollar buys one euro).

His premise was that those holding US dollars (with which to purchase used sailing vessels priced in Euros) would see their funds "go further" - that is, a given quantity of dollars would buy a lot more boat in Europe in the wake of a collapse in the Euro:dollar exchange rate.

The thread was started on November 17, 2011. On that date, it took $1.34562 (one dollar, thirty-four and a half cents) to buy €1.00 (one Euro). In September of 2011, the Euro had crashed from ~$1.45 to ~$1.32 as the continent was undergoing stress related to the situation in Greece.

But by the end of October, the Euro had rallied back strongly to ~$1.4150, then began softening once again. As stated earlier, by the time the OP started this thread, it had fallen to $1.3456. The OP was quite confident that this marked the beginning of the end for the Euro, and he felt that he might save as much as $200,000 on a catamaran in Europe by waiting another year and allowing the anticipated Euro collapse to occur.

By the middle of January, 2012, the Euro had fallen to $1.2640, then rallied back to $1.34683 once again on February 27, 2012. In other words, three and a half months after the OP expressed his view that the Euro was collapsing to parity with the US dollar, the closing price was virtually identical to what it had been on November 17, 2011.

The tensions in Greece continued to impact the Euro adversely, however, and the Euro resumed its slide.

On July 25, 2012, it closed at $1.2064. The OP seemed to have been correct it his belief that the Euro was on its way to 1:1 parity with the US$.

The $1.2064 closing price on July 25, 2012 proved to be the low point of the move, however. From there, the Euro began an upward trend against the dollar that continues to the present. A couple of days ago, the Euro closed higher than it did on the day the OP began this thread in mid-November, 2011, and today it closed at $1.36492 (or about 2 cents higher than it was when this thread began.)

At post #8 in this thread, cormorant suggested to the OP that if he was so confident that the Euro was in the process of collapsing to, and through, parity with the US dollar, he should short the Euro in the ForEx market and he'd make a killing, essentially getting the catamaran of his dreams for free .

ForEx trading is not for the faint of heart . . . it takes knowledge, discipline, emotional detachment and exquisite timing to do it successfully and consistently.

Attached below is a two-year Euro:dollar chart with the dates mentioned above annotated. As I read the chart, I believe it shows the near-completion of a massive reverse head-and-shoulders formation that could set the base for a prolonged appreciation of the Euro against the $US.

(EDIT: Sorry . . . I just noticed that I mislabeled the low on the chart . . . it should read 25Jul2012. And the last date should read 01Feb2013.)

TaoJones

[goboatingnow]

There are too many people, for incorrect idealogical reasons , think they can predict the Euro. Forex trading is not for wishful thinkers.


Dave

[Kettlewell]

I think it is a rare person that would be able to time the purchase of a boat to maximize the value of his currency. You might think you are doing so, but in reality your need to make a fast transaction might be a way to also lose many $thousands by not getting the best deal on the selling price or purchasing a boat that is in need of lots of repair $$. Boat sellers aren't waiting around for you to maximize the value of their currency, and for most boats there are very few of a particular model within a particular currency regime. And don't forget the costs of flying, living, repairing, etc. in some part of the world you don't live in and are not familiar with. Another thing I should add is that just today I was looking at various versions of my own boat and the prices in Europe are double in some cases the prices here in North America, all quoted in US dollars. My boat was built in Europe and is evidently much more popular over there. In other words, there are very important factors that need to be considered in addition to the value of various currencies.

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by TaoJones

I thought it would be interesting to resurrect this old thread to see what has actually occurred with the Euro:dollar cross over the course of the 14 1/2 months since the thread began.

Not only the thread that got resurrected! - welcome back . Parole?

I got curious as to what I had predicted in this thread, there were 19 posts from me with lots of jibber jabbering and nothing useful (as an exchange rate prediction ) - I guess somethings never change .

But FWIW, last Feb(?) I wrote off to both Chancellor Merkel and Presidente Hollande with a fairly detailed plan on how to solve the Eurozone crisis - inside a week and whilst making a profit .....still waiting to hear back from Le French , but got a nice "thank you" letter from the Germans - albeit only one of her minions . a very minor one .........but at least now I can say "I told you so" .

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by Dkdoyle

I don't see any possible way for an Obama second term so not going to happen and politically he is a lame duck now.

So, how did that turn out then?

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

The Israelis fear that an Obama 2nd term will recognise a Palestinian State (even if a bit fuzzy on the borders ).....and I suspect he will............

I still stand by that prediction......

[David_Old_Jersey]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

If that happens this week I'll eat my own turds for a month.

Fortunately I was right on that mini prediction