America’s Cup - ETNZ launches 1st AC75 (new)

[MicHughV]

I was watching some Youtube video of ETNZ first race against LR back around xmas time or so....pretty much cleaned LR's clock.

But that was then and this is now..LR has advanced their ability by a 100 fold since then...

I keep saying this...the first two races will tell all....a lot of variables here....we'll know soon enuff...the Prada Cup series certainly helped LR fine tune their game..enuff to beat ETNZ ???

[jmh2002]

Some further thoughts from the Rule69Blog on how things might play out in general:

https://rule69blog.wordpress.com/202...5/shakermaker/

Additionally, at the moment the forecast looks very light for the first few days of racing next week.

Luna Rossa might be rubbing their hands with glee

That is of course unless the new 'Code Zero Light' that ETNZ have been testing ends up being a game changer

[CassidyNZ]

Rule69Blog suggests that LRPP believe they may hold an edge over ETNZ in both light airs and strong winds and “narrowing the band where they think the Kiwis are quick and puts the pressure on.”

Watching this video, I reckon the next comment by Rule69Blog is right on the money - “Never believe a word of it”. Te Ruhatei looks pretty damn quick in what looks like 18 - 22kn.

https://youtu.be/RE0PSlfzD3k

Getting back to the light weight Code0, seems to me this has two light air benefits - it adds downwind boatspeed in displacement mode and also gets up a bottom-end speed a little quicker to get back up and foiling. After watching boats not being able get onto foils, being towed onto them by a chase boat and then foiling with relative ease, that to me is the real game changer.

I remember when LRPP dropped off the foils and Ineos stayed up, wiping out a kilometre of deficit to pass the wallowing LRPP.

[MicHughV]

yep, I think LR will find their way onto the scoreboard.....somehow...luck...preservance...spee d...skill....who knows...????

But I don't think anyone would be willing to bet against the ETNZ team.

It's a good thing this is a best of 7 event.....the grinders are going to get a good workout...that is about the only for sure thing...

[CassidyNZ]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

But I don't think anyone would be willing to bet against the ETNZ team

FWIW the TAB (betting agency) in NZ is giving these odds today . . . . is there any reason to assume it’ll change in four days?

And these guys are betting specialists that are putting potentially serious money on this

[MicHughV]

aye, I hear you, nobody would have bet on the Brits beating the All Blacks in the Rugby World cup either....'jes sayin'......

I favor the Kiwi's to win, but not willing to put any money on it.

[Tillsbury]

Originally Posted by CassidyNZ

FWIW the TAB (betting agency) in NZ is giving these odds today . . . . is there any reason to assume it’ll change in four days?

And these guys are betting specialists that are putting potentially serious money on this

Tab's odds on nz reflect the number of bets placed on tnz rather than anything else. Would be interesting to see the equivalent odds on offer in Italy.

[Apollo19.5]

Who honestly expected LRPP to wipe the floor with the poms after they were so dominate in the round robin? I didnt. Think and hope this will be a lot closer than most believe. Should be good. Some of the best in the world on display.

[Pelagic]

From a business perspective I bet all the main sponsors and AC organixers hope that LR win and the next one is held in the more affluent Med.

I would anticipate at least double the challegers and a massive buildup

[ChrisJHC]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

From a business perspective I bet all the main sponsors and AC organixers hope that LR win and the next one is held in the more affluent Med.

Although, if it had been held in Europe or North America this time it would (should?) have been cancelled due to COVID.

[CassidyNZ]

Originally Posted by Tillsbury

Tab's odds on nz reflect the number of bets placed on tnz rather than anything else. Would be interesting to see the equivalent odds on offer in Italy.

I always believed that betting shops took bets at what they thought the chances were of them not paying the bet and the lower the odds, the more they thought they were at risk of losing/paying the bet. In essence they’re betting that ETNZ is going to LOSE, the punter is betting they’re going to WIN. At 1.5 odds, TAB are clearly not confident that ETNZ will lose.

They’re offering 3.5:1 that LRPP are going to lose. They’re clearly a lot more confident of LRPP losing than of ETNZ losing.

So yes, coincidentally the volume of bets correlates to the odds but that’s only because the weight of opinion of punters begins to convince the betting shop that his chances of the favourites losing are weaker than he thought and thus his risk of losing the bet increases and the odds come down. It’s not just a mathematical progression, it’s all about risk.

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by ChrisJHC

Although, if it had been held in Europe or North America this time it would (should?) have been cancelled due to COVID.

No one could have anticipated COVID.

However the costs for the teams and sponsors to hold the event in NZ vs Italy is about 75% more and the media participation and marketing value dramatically less.

I predict that if NZ wins again, global corporate sponsorship intrest in the next one will decline as the market forces will be drawn to higher population areas of disposable income.

[MicHughV]

Costs for the AC have certainly spiraled out of control....at $100 million plus per team, that is a lot of coin to invest in a sailboat race. I think that $100 M price tag keeps a lot of prospective entrants away from this event. I've read where NZ was initially concerned that the high price of fielding an AC75 may deter anyone from accepting the challenge. As it turned out, they were not far off....only 3 teams rose to the challenge.
These are all one-off boats, they are likely never to be used again. Very little return on an investment.

But....Ellison sported an AC match in Bermuda....so the next event, even if won by NZ, could be held elsewhere, nah, I don't see that coming.

No idea, really, as to how the next AC will be pulled off.

[CassidyNZ]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

But....Ellison sported an AC match in Bermuda....so the next event, even if won by NZ, could be held elsewhere, nah, I don't see that coming.

No idea, really, as to how the next AC will be pulled off.

I thought I read somewhere that Dalton has flighted the concept (if ETNZ win) of offering (almost auctioning) the AC to other centres around the world. IIRC it was said that back when the Swiss had to find a venue (being landlocked) they were offered (and paid) US$145m to use Valencia as the venue which was then used for two Cups. Could be wrong on that?

I also recall reading somewhere that even back in 2003, the AC derived an income in excess of NZ$600m for the Auckland economy. So there’s a decent windfall for potential hosts if that is true. Provided of course that CV-19 has been kicked into touch by then.

I reckon Dalts is getting fed-up with the public constantly bleating about using taxpayer money and Auckland council not being totally happy spending money on AC infrastructure even though the expenditure is being supported by the AC.

CV-19 of course hasn’t helped this time around with no Superyacht presence and virtually no foreign spectators. Plus the fact that their anchor sponsor is an international airline who, like all the others, must be financially slowly bleeding to death with CV-19 and may yank their funding.

At first I was disgruntled by the thought and wondered about the patriotism of such a choice but Dalts held the view that his responsibility was to the team and their continued success/employment. Then it occurred to me that I am watching the whole thing on the telly with great coverage in my home anyway so what’s it to me where it’s held? Other than perhaps, memories of 2-am viewing when the event was held in Bermuda - not going to be any different if held in Europe.

Of course if LRPP win, the circus goes to Italy anyway.

[Pelagic]

I just wonder if the AC format will change into more of a Formula One fomat?
Approx 1 hour races held in different venues every month with teams competing for championship points and sponsorship.
Crowded starts, various battles and high speed crossings