"Everyone is buying boats'"during the pandemic, and it's causing a short supply

[DeValency]

Interesting posts here... Just note, if you like;

* Governments in the US and Europe are pouring TRILLIONS of OUR present and especially future money into the markets in all kinds of way. In the US alone, 7 Trillions over the last few months.

* This creates a great illusion for many people, that everything is actually great financially. Including those to 'invest' in a boat (again, mainly smaller motorboats).

* Having a boat is the best investment, for most of us, in sanity, health and quality of life. For many, first time buyers, the reality will hit quite fast.

* 'Someone' will need to pay all that back in this way or another - guess it is still most of us., -As soon as November and not only due to the end of season, boat hauling and repairs cost... Maybe few months later in Europe and Asia-Pacific. Even sailors don't get free meals.

* A real boat - say 27' and up, sail, diesel etc. is by all means a horrible long term 'investment' way more than even cash in the bank. Nothing is new here, but in a downturn global economy, the depreciation is even faster.

I'm always optimistic (otherwise would never have a boat...), but unfortunately, we are going to see a huge deep 'red ocean' in 2021.

So;
- if you want/need to sell, do it right away.
- if you can carefully enough plan your financials and cash-flow in a very unstable high-risk market, income etc. - the boat can be the best asset to keep us happy (in running maintenance 90% of the time and sailing maybe 10% of the time - didn't I say I'm optimistic? )

[Rubicon King]

As far as dinghy sales, they are over the moon. I scooped up the last Highfield CL310 in Florida... the distributer says there is a little constraint in the supply chain, but his phone is ringing off the hook on all things boats. Engines, supplies, boats.. you name it. at least here in America..

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

What's missing is enough good data. Especially of the collateral damage. And it's still early days, meaning that a lot of collateral damage can still be prevented with appropriate economic action.

In other words, it's still soon enough to keep that healthy 18 yr old afloat, and prevent those 3rd world people from starving. If we want to, that is.

Why do we need more details before you can tell us how many families are out in the street in order to save grandma?

Is it or is it not OK to kill poor people in other countries to save a single Canadian?

These questions have nothing to do with what we know about corona but are a baseline of how do we compare options once we know the impacts of saving grandma.

[tomfl]

Originally Posted by smj

Can’t imagine the cure being worse than death

The point seems to be if there are say 184,000 deaths from the current response to COVID-19 but a different, and less restrictive response, would result in 100,000 deaths then the cure is worse.

[smj]

Originally Posted by tomfl

The point seems to be if there are say 184,000 deaths from the current response to COVID-19 but a different, and less restrictive response, would result in 100,000 deaths then the cure is worse.

If we had the chance to have less deaths coupled with a less restrictive response we would have gone that route? So what’s the point?
As it stands now, lives can be saved if we have a more restrictive response.
And to all that think the cure is worse than the deaths, are YOU willing to take the hit?

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by smj

If we had the chance to have less deaths coupled with a less restrictive response we would have gone that route? So what’s the point?
As it stands now, lives can be saved if we have a more restrictive response.
And to all that think the cure is worse than the deaths, are YOU willing to take the hit?

But have we? That's an assumption on your part.

Also, which responses had an impact and which ones did not?

Which ones had huge collateral damage with little or no impact on deaths?

Which ones had negligible collateral damage with a big impact on deaths?

I think there are obvious examples, where we could have had fewer deaths with less restrictive measures but by refusing to discuss the balancing of pros vs cons, we aren't allowed to select the most effective solutions.

And you still haven't addressed collateral damage that doesn't result in deaths. If a child in a poor country goes without food and has sever developmental complications for the rest of his life, how many of those are you willing to accept in order to save one 95yr old who has multiple serious medical conditions (prior to corona)?

[smj]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

But have we? That's an assumption on your part.



Also, which responses had an impact and which ones did not?



Which ones had huge collateral damage with little or no impact on deaths?



Which ones had negligible collateral damage with a big impact on deaths?



I think there are obvious examples, where we could have had fewer deaths with less restrictive measures but by refusing to discuss the balancing of pros vs cons, we aren't allowed to select the most effective solutions.



And you still haven't addressed collateral damage that doesn't result in deaths. If a child in a poor country goes without food and has sever developmental complications for the rest of his life, how many of those are you willing to accept in order to save one 95yr old who has multiple serious medical conditions (prior to corona)?

Or if a healthy 18 year old dies from Covid yet a 75 year old 1%er gets richer because we relaxed the restrictions?

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by smj

Or if a healthy 18 year old dies from Covid yet a 75 year old 1%er gets richer because we relaxed the restrictions?

Actually that brings up a good point.

If the govt response gets out of hand, that can easily result in high inflation. Most working age adults wind up with pay increases to compensate and they tend to be more invested in the market which better accounts for inflation, so they can mitigate. Most elderly folks have shifted more towards conservative investments and don't have the time to ride out the market ups & downs. This could put many retirees in the poor house.

Do you wind up with a long term problem of elderly not able to pay for critical health care because of inflation caused by misguided govt mitigation of corona?

Of course, if we actually bring out all the facts, your sarcastic thought will be vetted and have to stand up to public consideration. If there is a refusal to openly talk about the pros and cons of the corona response, it's easy for politicians to bake pork into the responses because they have hidden what is really happening behind "don't kill grandma" chants.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by smj

Or if a healthy 18 year old dies from Covid yet a 75 year old 1%er gets richer because we relaxed the restrictions?

Or that same 18yr old dies on his new motorbike while the 75yr old 1%er gets richer coz his company built the bike.
Life comes with no warranties..

[MicHughV]

I think that there is no question that the small boat (fishing boats) sales are at record high....but these boats generally do not wander that far from home port...maybe 50 odd miles offshore for some fishing...give or take...and many, if not most, are kept at home in the driveway, thereby negating marina costs, etc......a lot of those boats may sit in a driveway for a very long time without use.. once you burn thru $200 of gas in an outing it brings a new reality to boating...

fishing boats often...maybe most of the time...have people on board that may come from all over town.....in close proximity to each other..other recreational boats....all ages...men, women and children out for a ride..

but the sailboat market....my take....it is dead as a doornail. Sailboats generally cruise to places out of reach of your average fishing boat...

The C-19 thing has caused a bit of a hiccup as people are unsure of where they might be able to go...

area marina's in my neck of the woods are noticeably devoid of sailboats...and it
is rare to see a sailboat cruising the ICW these days...

having said all that, I have never once....not once...seen marina staff, sales staff, boat mechanics, etc, wearing a face mask all this time....and they are in touch with area boaters all day long..neither do I see the boaters, often arriving in droves, wearing any face masks either..

I have not heard or seen a single C-19 occurrence in my neck of the woods...not one....I don't know anyone else that has either...

a mask is required going into a store...but more and more...I see people without a mask or wearing it around their necks...and it doesn't seem to worry anyone..

area beaches have throngs of people...no masks...multitudes of cyclist riding in groups...no masks...

in the same breath....I have seen seen a single individuals with a mask on, driving their car with all the windows closed.

each to his own, I guess, but when you have a newscaster telling us another 103 year old man in a nursing home has died from Covid, one must question the age question..

now I read there is massive uproar against "mandatory" vaccinations...people are fed with all this stuff....you still have a 95% or better chance of not having any problem....cancer has no such odds, yet takes more lives....

We can have 5 murders a day here....barely gets a notice...but one new Covid death is splashed on the front page and makes headline news..

just offering a local perspective here, not trying to start WWIII....

[smj]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Or that same 18yr old dies on his new motorbike while the 75yr old 1%er gets richer coz his company built the bike.

Life comes with no warranties..

Or the 18 yr old dies on his motorbike while the 75 yr old 1%er gets poorer because the 18 yr olds parents sue the owner of the bike company.[emoji848][emoji23]

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by smj

You got a good interest rate but did you think of the possibility that your house may lose 20-30% of its value in the next few years? I mean we are in a bubble, correct?
Also as Adeline confirmed, there are plenty of people that are really hurting in this economy including some of my friends. Just because there’s a small group of people that can afford to pay inflated prices for something doesn’t make the economy strong.

The fact that refinance loans and initial purchases are historically high does though. They are so high that Freddie Mac and Fanny May can’t process the applications, they are backlogged.
Boats are a luxury item for most, and yet boat sales are at a high right now.
It would seem more than a few can purchase a luxury item like a boat, much less a house.

I am not so much buying a house as I am buying a deal, the deal is 2.25% interest rate.
So yes we are in a bubble, have been that I’m sure for at least 20 years, probably longer, and yet I’m getting older and older, so when will the bubble, burst? I have no idea.
I’m not a wealthy person, just one that has always lived beneath their means, lived in a Mobile Home as an officer and sent both my Wife and I to school to get degrees that we could make a living from, didn’t get a student loan for an art history degree etc.
So driving a 15 yr old car and saving money so I can Retire makes me evil?

[smj]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

The fact that refinance loans and initial purchases are historically high does though. They are so high that Freddie Mac and Fanny May can’t process the applications, they are backlogged.
Boats are a luxury item for most, and yet boat sales are at a high right now.
It would seem more than a few can purchase a luxury item like a boat, much less a house.

I am not so much buying a house as I am buying a deal, the deal is 2.25% interest rate.
So yes we are in a bubble, have been that I’m sure for at least 20 years, probably longer, and yet I’m getting older and older, so when will the bubble, burst? I have no idea.
I’m not a wealthy person, just one that has always lived beneath their means, lived in a Mobile Home as an officer and sent both my Wife and I to school to get degrees that we could make a living from, didn’t get a student loan for an art history degree etc.
So driving a 15 yr old car and saving money so I can Retire makes me evil?

Not evil at all, I drive a 21 year old truck as a new vehicle isn’t important to me.
Real estate sales have been picking up for about the last 9 years, the present 6 month bubble has been unbelievable.
We purchased a beach lot in end of February and I thought we purchased at a high, turns out I could sell that lot for well over twice what I paid for it 6 months ago. And what we paid 6 months ago I thought to be top price.
I was just wondering if the 2.5% interest rate would make up for a possible 20-30% decline in the next few years? I can’t see this bubble lasting long, but having said that I e been wrong before.

[Pelagic]

This person just bought a yacht and is already over his head.

The tragic side affect of Pandemic is that the harsh realities of human desperation now take a back seat

https://gcaptain.com/artist-banksys-...mediterranean/

[MicHughV]

But what are you buying ??

How can a house be $100,000 one month and $200,000 six months later ? Where does that sudden $100,000 appreciation come from ?? It's not manufactured money, ie, the cost of making the house..the property has always been there.....so where does it come from ? How is this extra "perceived' value arrived at ? Who sets it ? The guv'mint can and does print it's own....every guv'mint in the world owns a printing press...

Just as a house price can go up, so it can come down. Go to Detroit, you can buy a veritable mansion for a song. The same house in Detroit, built here on the beach will likely sell in the millions....same house.....different price.....so what you are paying for is an intangible asset....the " view"....I can see the same view every day.....those people can see it from their front window.....I have to a walk for a few minutes...but it's the same view.....I see it for free.

Most car prices go down.....but after a few years...some go up....a rusty barn find can sell for more than a brand spanking new Mercedes Benz.

Regardless of how much a place or item is valued....you can't take it with you...you are basically " renting" a house, car or boat, etc, for as long as you live on this planet...even if you have " bought" it....after you pass on, in all likelihood, it wil go to the next person.....who in turn will " rent" for a period of time..

Bezos, Musk, Gates, et al....have bank accounts that look like this....$100,000,000,000
what is done with all the money? I use my boat more than Bezos does, ok, he has someone bring him a beer, I have to fetch my own...is that what $100,000,000 buys....a manservant....??

I think people get too caught up in the $$$ thing.....strive to be happy...wherever you are, whatever you do.....

This was brought home to me in Exumas one year. Tom Cruise on a chartered motor vessel anchored next to me in Georgetown. A bevy of manservants zoomed to the beach to set up a beach barbecue for him and then girlfriend...they were around for a week, I was around for months...who is having the better time. The poor guy can't move without an army of bodyguards.....me, I am free to move when and where I want...

I honestly think people need to get a grip here......don't envy the other person.....just live your own life...