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dickfred · 12-04-2016, 09:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by RKO

I can imagine banks running the other way if someone comes looking for financing. Ok, Catalina. But every other company in history seems to be on a crash course with bankruptcy.
I seriously wonder how anybody is building boats anymore.

From Wikipedia: See list below of sailboats only. Made in the U.S., still lots to choose from - Beneteau,Island Packet, Catalina, Hunter, Pacific Seacraft - to name several.

Powerboats? Along with Bayliner, I suspect there are many companies going strong.

Current manufacturers[edit]

Sailboat manufacturers currently operating.

**a64pilot** · 12-04-2016, 09:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cadence

It would seem the yacht business is doing well, the boat business not doing so well. I'm sure the return on investment is far higher on the yachts.

I had read that the "SuperYacht" production and delivery numbers are higher than ever before.
I don't now if that is true or not, but I do know that Gulfstream is sold out on their 65 Million Dollar Bizjets, for years in the future.

**newhaul** · 12-04-2016, 09:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by dickfred

From Wikipedia: See list below of sailboats only. Made in the U.S., still lots to choose from - Beneteau,Island Packet, Catalina, Hunter, Pacific Seacraft - to name several.

Powerboats? Along with Bayliner, I suspect there are many companies going strong.

Current manufacturers[edit]

Sailboat manufacturers currently operating.

Unfortunately I have to inform you that there are at least 3 manufacturers on your list that have closed their doors within the last 6 to 8 months

barnakiel · 12-04-2016, 10:07

A well found company only needs as much debt as justified by the company's structure and business model.

You start the business with your own money (or a company equity money) and get it going. You use debt only as a tool to get proper liquidity of your daily operations. This kind of debt is expensive but you only use smal amount of it, maybe 5 or 10 % of your assets.

If all goes fine and the company is sound and creates sales, etc., you will have no problem getting debt up to the level where companies are considered financially sound. This varies with business type you are in.

A bank will always lend to a good business, that's exactly bank's business.

Remember when a company fails, the bank is the second in line to get the assets. IMHO it is way more difficult today to get equity than debt to start a business.

Then again with money being so cheap there is no better time to start a business. There are many rich people around who are not happy with 2% p.a. on their current account. These people are your potential investors.

b.

barnakiel · 12-04-2016, 10:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by robert sailor

Large corporations have never had it so good worldwide, their profits are border line excessive and many of them are sitting on multi billions of cash which they are not investing in growing their business. (...)

Rob,

If they are not using their money to grow their business, maybe their business is already at the optimum size?

Since money cannot just stay in your account (unless one is a lame manager and they have proven not to be) what are they doing with these multi billions? They must be developing alternative, new businesses. Am I right?

Alternatively, suppose they are hoarding money. When and why businesses hoard cash? War. Getting ready for a new investment. What else comes to mind.

Then again, if we think about it, with central banks printing money like toilet tissue, this money must end up somewhere. For clearly it did NOTHING to improve the economy (at least not in the EU, where more printing is right under way).

Maybe we should ask our respective govts where all this newly printed cash has gone? For it is neither in my pocket nor in the pocket of local chandlery owner.

One wants to start a boat building business? No problem, go to China, pay 10c an hour and undercut Varianta. Done.

b.

Stumble · 12-04-2016, 12:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by barnakiel

Rob,

If they are not using their money to grow their business, maybe their business is already at the optimum size?

Since money cannot just stay in your account (unless one is a lame manager and they have proven not to be) what are they doing with these multi billions? They must be developing alternative, new businesses. Am I right?

Alternatively, suppose they are hoarding money. When and why businesses hoard cash? War. Getting ready for a new investment. What else comes to mind.

Then again, if we think about it, with central banks printing money like toilet tissue, this money must end up somewhere. For clearly it did NOTHING to improve the economy (at least not in the EU, where more printing is right under way).

Maybe we should ask our respective govts where all this newly printed cash has gone? For it is neither in my pocket nor in the pocket of local chandlery owner.

One wants to start a boat building business? No problem, go to China, pay 10c an hour and undercut Varianta. Done.

b.

The reason that businesses are holding massive cash reserves is that they can't figure out anything more productive to do with the money. Apple for instance is holding something like $100 billion in cash reserves.

The reason businesses can't figure out anything to do with the money is in large part that due to the vanashing middle class world wide fewer and fewer people can afford to buy new products. By moving production to the cheapest labor businesses have effectively destroyed their own customers.

This is the real problem with the income gap. It isn't so much that there are a small number of extremely wealthy people, that could be healthy since it allows investment into highly speculative fields (spaceX for instance) as ego projects. The problem is that the middle class can no longer afford to buy things like boats, and expensive electronics, or even pay for professional maintenance work.

In economics this is generally described as the 'velocity of money' and in the last thirty years the velocity has basically stopped.

Cadence · 12-04-2016, 12:33

I guess whoever said go to China had it right. When burger flippers can demand $15 an hour in California. There is no point in trying it in the US, or in any place but Asia. People are people the labor at, I think 10cents an hour was cited, may do a better job because they don't feel entitled.

**Adelie** · 12-04-2016, 12:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Question that keeps bugging me over and over, is why? Why is it so different than it was in the 1970's?

The biggest difference from the '70s is that there was pent up demand for boats that hadn't yet been met. Wood boats were not a viable way to meet this demand, to expensive, too low production volume and to short a life expectancy for the amount of maintenance involved.

There is now an inventory of 40yr old boats for sale at 10-20% the cost of a similar sized new boat. That means that only very large efficient companies can efficiently chase the relatively small pool of buyers willing to pay extra to buy new and up to date.

Additionally builders are no longer allowed to let their workers and neighbors suffer releases of the noxious and toxic fumes and dispose of the toxic wastes in a manner that shifts the costs to future unwitting owners of the properties they set up shop on. There was limited awareness of the dangers using fiberglass int chemicals then. Now we know better and should behave better. This adds to the costs. Once again large builders are more efficient at using the chemicals without inflicting harm on others.

A house is but a boat so poorly built and so firmly run aground you would never try to refloat it.

TheThunderbird · 12-04-2016, 13:26

I was a business consultant (ADL Inc.)

Middle class has disappeared, not because of the Labour transfer to low GDP countries, but because with modern managerial models you need more simply 3 organizational levels: one boss, few supervisors, many executors.

40 years ago there were almost 10 hierarchical levels, as many as in the army :-)

Funny, there is a proliferation of supercars, but exactly... there are thousands of poorly used good boats at a great discount, yet well functional...

The very few who can afford it, buy a Wally built in south Africa

Cadence · 12-04-2016, 13:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheThunderbird

I was a business consultant (ADL Inc.)

Middle class has disappeared, not because of the Labour transfer to low GDP countries, but because with modern managerial models you need more simply 3 organizational levels: one boss, few supervisors, many executors.

40 years ago there were almost 10 hierarchical levels, as many as in the army :-)

Funny, there is a proliferation of supercars, but exactly... there are thousands of poorly used good boats at a great discount, yet well functional...

The very few who can afford it, buy a Wally built in south Africa

???

Don't know I disagree.

barnakiel · 12-04-2016, 13:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stumble

The reason that businesses are holding massive cash reserves is that they can't figure out anything more productive to do with the money. Apple for instance is holding something like $100 billion in cash reserves.

The reason businesses can't figure out anything to do with the money is in large part that due to the vanashing middle class world wide fewer and fewer people can afford to buy new products. By moving production to the cheapest labor businesses have effectively destroyed their own customers.

This is the real problem with the income gap. It isn't so much that there are a small number of extremely wealthy people, that could be healthy since it allows investment into highly speculative fields (spaceX for instance) as ego projects. The problem is that the middle class can no longer afford to buy things like boats, and expensive electronics, or even pay for professional maintenance work.

In economics this is generally described as the 'velocity of money' and in the last thirty years the velocity has basically stopped.

If you are right about that $100b then I would expect a robbery pending in Cupertino. Priced $600b today, I would be very suspicious of any story claiming the company holding a sixth of its value in cash reserves. Or the information is not accurate, or Apple is up to something, like e.g. another buy-back. NO reasonable manager will ever hold a sixth of it company in cash reserves for too much time before they get fired. (Apple ROA 16% ROE 42% = buy your own shares, no brainer).

As for the middle class disappearance, who could care less? The new (once markets) like Polonia, Bulgaria, Romania, former DDR, Hungary, to name a few, never had one. They will soak in all and any Apple products that US citizens cannot afford. And the real new markets (Asia, Latin America, Africa) are as good consumers as any others. You do not need middle class to sustain your business model once you started making things in China to sell them in Nigeria and Brazil.

Social classes have their function and when the function is no longer required we get rid of them. Remember peasants? This is what has been happening to the middle class. The world will not tumble down nor stop for that, the world will not even look twice.

I, for one, do not think starting a boat building business today is any more difficult than starting any other business. A business is a business is a business. Lagoon seems to be doing quite fine. See what they do well, improve, then sell something better than them at the same price or something as good as their product at half the cost. Done.

PS Boat building business tip: Do not sell in China, sell in Brazil, I have seen two dozens on brand new EU paper boats going that way last fall. They apparently believe they all are grandchildren of Portuguese navigators out there.

b.

barnakiel · 12-04-2016, 14:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by dickfred

From Wikipedia: See list below of sailboats only. Made in the U.S., still lots to choose from - Beneteau,Island Packet, Catalina, Hunter, Pacific Seacraft - to name several.

...

Add:

Comfortina,
D&K,
Koopmans,
Contest,
Delphia,
Faurby,
Nordborg,
Swedestar,
Arcona,
Maxus,
FP,
Catana,
Outremer,
Varianta,
+
+
+

etc etc etc

endless

The list would be dozens if not hundred names long, if we cared to edit this wiki.

b.

barnakiel · 12-04-2016, 14:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheThunderbird

(...)

Middle class has disappeared, not because of the Labour transfer to low GDP countries, but because with modern managerial models you need more simply 3 organizational levels (...)

Yep. And these models are based on reality as is. We had 10 tier models when we needed them, now we have a 3 tier model because this is what we need. The middle class is obsolete.

This may be painful to remnants of that class but the business owner could not care less.

If a token of a class disappears together with the class, the business owner will not even blink an eye. Boats do not sell? Uhmmm - tell econs what they need next, make it, sell it. Level: easy.

OP is right. Forget boats. Go into robots. Step in early, reap the early adopter benefits.

PLS note we did not buy our boats because we needed them for survival either. They were toys. Societies grow up and toys like boats will become a thing of the past one day (not too soon though, I hope).

On the second thought, disappearance of the middle class makes managing the masses easier too - less educated, less affluent people are easier to herd.

Robots as the new heartless social buffer class to guard the rich from the consumer masses ... ehhhhh, wait! I have seen this in a movie!!!

;-)

b.

hsi88 · 12-04-2016, 15:07

Quote:

When burger flippers can demand $15 an hour in California.

You make this sound like a ton of money. People making anywhere near $10 an hour in California today are no better off than people making "10 cents" in China. If you make $10 an hour, you are lucky to live in a trailer. Or you live in a house with 3 families to make ends meet. And you are lucky if you have any medical care in a rich country where medical costs are 10 times what they are anywhere else in the world due to greed.

But boating is in trouble not so much because of the shift in economics, but because the interest is not there. When the vast majority of us gray hairs stop sailing, the sport will be all but finished (same with motorcycles). If anyone motor-boated in the 60's and 70's or sailed in the 70's and 80's, you know what I mean. There might be more people actually cruising and taking trips to the Caribbean, but just look out on the water here in the Chesapeake and there are simply nowhere near as many boats.

Sailboats outside the mouth of Annapolis used to paint the horizon white with sails. Not any more. When I was a kid, lots of us young guys talked about boating. And flying for that matter. My kids have never talked to a single person all the way through college with those same ambitions. When I run into a young person that shows an interest today, I do everything I can to nurture it because I feel it won't last.

And boating has never been as cheap as it is today. That is what is puzzling. When very few sail in an area with an endless supply of weekend worthy boats for free, something else is wrong. Go to any boat yard. There are lots of boats for under $1000 with running engines and good sails. Look on eBay, same thing. And if you are willing to sail a boat under 30 feet, you can add a brand new electric start four stroke outboard for around $2000. Fancy electronics have never been cheaper. And yet most of these boats will end up as scrap and the motors will go unsold.

The marinas are full of boats that never go out. And these will continue to flood an already saturated market. Go to the Annapolis Sailboat Show and docks that were once filled with people have plenty of maneuvering room today.

On a personal level, I saw all these cheap boats and thought with a little spit and polish and a weekend per engine, I could turn $200 boats into $2000 boats or even $20,000 boats. Boy was I wrong. Making a $200 boat look and run as good as a $20,000 still sells for $200. Or perhaps I might double my money. Great. I spent a hundred hours of my time to make under a grand.

I will end up doing what everyone else does. I will end up giving away all these boats. Another stupid business decision on my part. I did not do adequate marketing research. As I'm sure a lot of these failing boat companies will tell you.

barnakiel · 12-04-2016, 16:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by hsi88

You make this sound like a ton of money. People making anywhere near $10 an hour in California today are no better off than people making "10 cents" in China. If you make $10 an hour, you are lucky to live in a trailer. Or you live in a house with 3 families to make ends meet. And you are lucky if you have any medical care in a rich country where medical costs are 10 times what they are anywhere else in the world due to greed.

(...)

Blame your govt, blame your parents, do not blame the boat builder. I know you do not.

Still, USD 10 NOT = USD 0.10. If you think people in China have better med care than you do in Cal, go to China, take that job. You may change your mind then.

I fail to see how really bad it is to live in a house with 3 families. It is normally 10 families in Brazil, 20 in China. People in rich countries in Europe live in houses that at time will house from a dozen to hundreds of families.

On average, I would bet people in Cal ARE better off than people in China, and by a huge margin. This is why there are so many people willing to migrate to Cal and so few Cal people migrating to China.

You cannot eat a cake and have a cake, much as generations lived like this and we grew up in the world where this seemed normal. It was not. You cannot endlessly war throughout the world and have good med care in your country at the same time. Either / or. Rome was doing very fine until it collapsed. Can't remember how many boatyards they had.

The world is achanging. It has always been. No point in resisting what is. If we want to have our boats, we must watch, think, adjust and keep on navigating. Navigare necesse est. The other thing is not.

I enjoyed reading your post. You can see. There is only one step from seeing to doing. Maybe it is your turn now.

b.

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