Will there be a glut of boats for sale once Baby Boomers retire from boating?

[cyan]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Another way to get at this is to look at measures of social mobility within a society. Here too it is showing that it is getting harder for people from one economic class to rise above their parents.

This effect is happening in almost all countries, not just in the United States, although it is ironic that the so-called "American Dream" is now more possible in many other OECD countries.

Social mobility studies that I have read often lament the shrinking middle class in the US without addressing all the facts. In the last 50 years, BOTH the lower class and the middle class has been shrinking, while the upper class has been steadily increasing to 3 times the size of 50 years back. Social mobility is often attached to higher education, obtained by 50% of high school grads in 1980 versus 75% of high school grads now. This fantastic success story in the USA rarely gets told because good news is boring I suppose.
The curious part is that the steadily expaning upper class in the US does not seem to be purchasing more sailboats...

[robert sailor]

Wow, been awhile since I've been active on this site and this thread is quite interesting with a very diverse group of opinions. I guess I'll throw my 2 bits in for what it's worth. Economy in the USA...it is going along just fine but it's certainly not the best in 40 years, on average it's about the same as it was under Obama. Presidents have always taken credit when it wasn't due and that hasn't changed. They don't deserve most of the credit, nor do they deserve most of the blame. Current GDP is heading in sub 2% range. What is very strong is employment numbers, at 3.5% that is a very low number and it is harder for companies to find good people. In my mind the USA should be increasing their immigration as they are not making babies at a rate to really grow the economy. And finally what's happening south of the border when we have conservatives cutting taxes and increasing spending and running trillion dollar deficits. No answer needed as I'm not wanting to talk politics, simply responding to earlier comments.

Prices of boats and sales in the future. Let me begin by saying that really clean, well maintained and upgraded boats are rare and usually a bargain. Friends of ours sold their boat, a sister ship to ours in 2 days from listing date, they had 2 offers on it. So things can't be that slow for nicely kept boats. They bought a brand new Amel 50 so a pretty substantial upgrade. Sure I know there are lots of oats around for sale but in my experience there are only a handful of really nice ones. My wife tells me that we actually own 2 boats, the one we are currently sailing and the second one we are buying part by part...some truth to that unfortunately.

Power boats sales are way ahead of sail boats...I'm sure that statement is true for many if not all coastal regions but it's not true if you are out and away from the mainland. We are currently sitting in an anchorage in Honduras and there are about 15 boats, give or take. There is one power boat, the rest are all sailboats and I'm sure the power boat is used for local fishing. The sailboats run from about 27 feet to around 46 feet. There are 3 catamarans, the rest are monohulls. I can't say the years of manufacturers but I'm guessing many are in the late 1980's thru to maybe early 2000's.
The crazy part is that you have to sail overnight to get here from the mainland and that keeps 75% of the cruisers out of this area. Go figure.

And finally I looked at the different scenarios put out as to demographics and purchasing power by some commentators and I have this to add. We don't know all the people in this anchorage but we have spent time with 4 different boats. Three of them sold their homes for big bucks and that set them up for money to buy a boat and enough for their cruising fund plus their retirement savings, social security etc. A typical view of life is that it's short, you only go around once and cruising can add activities that tend to keep people feeling younger and healthier so they didn't feel it was a huge decision. Usually women were less prone to make this type of decision so men were leading the charge but most women are enjoying themselves.

And finally a big hello to Kenomac and his bride. We had the fortune to have met these folks in the Mediterranean when we were there and while he seems a bit tough, lol, he's actually a first class guy, not quite as nice as his wife mind you but still nice.

[Tetepare]

When I was a teen there were tons of kids at the marina. About 30% of them stuck with sailing.

Today there is one teen at the marina. Mine. And one couple younger than us.

[Arthurwg]

There's already a glut of sailboats for sale. You can buy lots of boats for less money than a Chevy Camaro, many of them capable of taking you around the world. What there isn't a glut of are anchorages or slips. This is partly why many boats can't find new homes.

[belizesailor]

Despite the greying of the baby boomers and fewer young people getting into sailing by traditional routes, there are a significant number of younger sailors (younger than us aging baby boomers) in some venues (admittedly, not all). Here in Bocas del Toro for example, there are quite a few around. I crewed in a regatta here yesterday and there were a number of younger crews. The regatta was organized by Colin of Parlay Revival, who is a younger sailor and vlogger...maybe thats the next generation of cruisers?

https://youtu.be/4DW0Nt8K_ko

[Mike OReilly]

Here's another way to understand this. A recent study looked at the amount of US national wealth owned by the three recent generation (baby boomers, gen-x, millennial) when they hit their median age of 35.

From the study by economist Gray Kimbrough using Federal Reserve data:

• When baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) hit a median age of 35 in 1990, they collectively owned 21% of the nation’s wealth.

• At 35 Gen Xers (born between 1965 and 1980) owned just 9% of the nation’s wealth in 2008.

• The millennial generation (born between 1981 and 1996) will hit that 35 median age in three years. They currently own 3%.

From an article describing the study:

"Indeed, at a median age of 35, Gen Xers owned just 9% of the nation’s wealth in 2008 — less than half what boomers had at that age. And millennials will have to triple their net worth in the next four years to catch up to Generation X at 35, and increase their wealth sevenfold to catch up to boomers at that age.

That will be a difficult feat indeed considering most are saddled with student loan debt which has hit a record collective $1.6 trillion. The Federal Reserve estimates that more than a third of the 45 million Americans burdened by that debt are under 30."

This, in a nutshell, is why "the kids today" aren't buying boats, and why there is already a glut of used boats on the market. The kids aren't buying anything substantial because they don't have the same levels of wealth us oldies did/do.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by ThaidUp

A) Boomers are not "dying out". We're alive and well.
B) Prices are not dropping (yet) but average time on marketing is now 7-8 months.
C) Forget it if anyone things sailing will be passed along to the next generation in enough numbers to bolster the used boat market. NOTHING is. Not tennis, not baseball, not restoring old cars. The reason is simple. If you're 30 right now, you have 5,000 choices of how to spend your free time compared to the ~100 we boomers had then we were 30. Everything is fragmented. The guys who think their pristine PS40 is worth 300k will own those boats forever. As if any used sailboat is actually pristine.

Agreed. Ironically, the young YouTubers who sold their possessions and are sailing around the world are attracting interest.

[Joe Deepwater]

Originally Posted by cyan

Social mobility studies that I have read often lament the shrinking middle class in the US without addressing all the facts. In the last 50 years, BOTH the lower class and the middle class has been shrinking, while the upper class has been steadily increasing to 3 times the size of 50 years back. Social mobility is often attached to higher education, obtained by 50% of high school grads in 1980 versus 75% of high school grads now. This fantastic success story in the USA rarely gets told because good news is boring I suppose.
The curious part is that the steadily expaning upper class in the US does not seem to be purchasing more sailboats...

Great points. The WalMart, Amazon, Uber effects have LOWERED the costs of living to the point that people can afford to buy more stuff on the same incomes. I think boating is a pain in the rear at times with the gadgets that break and what can go wrong versus the immediate gratification of push button electronic dopamine releasing machines.

[impulsive19]

Sailboats make great airbnb 's / $50.00 bucks xtra/mth to live aboard at marinas in our area. No property taxes


Don't like the neighborhood - move. Put your old Harley on deck and rent both at the same time.


Sailboats are for cruising - need time, money, crew - just a dream for most of us - no matter what age.

[ronstory]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

[/INDENT]From an article describing the study:

"Indeed, at a median age of 35, Gen Xers owned just 9% of the nation’s wealth in 2008 — less than half what boomers had at that age. And millennials will have to triple their net worth in the next four years to catch up to Generation X at 35, and increase their wealth sevenfold to catch up to boomers at that age.

That will be a difficult feat indeed considering most are saddled with student loan debt which has hit a record collective $1.6 trillion. The Federal Reserve estimates that more than a third of the 45 million Americans burdened by that debt are under 30."

This, in a nutshell, is why "the kids today" aren't buying boats, and why there is already a glut of used boats on the market. The kids aren't buying anything substantial because they don't have the same levels of wealth us oldies did/do.

Mike--

Nice conciseness of the data, and the median income is a great metric to track.

As the US 'upper class' grows, it only show the % of folks based on the overall population/income based on specific threshold.. versus where the amount of money lands.

While the 'upper class' is growing base % of population ... I believe the question becomes how how did both the average and medium of income for that 'upper class' has change since the 1967 metric?

It would be great to show, but I have not found that data in the census bureau info.

[Cpt Pat]

Originally Posted by ThaidUp

A) Boomers are not "dying out". We're alive and well.
B) Prices are not dropping (yet) but average time on marketing is now 7-8 months.
C) Forget it if anyone things sailing will be passed along to the next generation in enough numbers to bolster the used boat market. NOTHING is. Not tennis, not baseball, not restoring old cars. The reason is simple. If you're 30 right now, you have 5,000 choices of how to spend your free time compared to the ~100 we boomers had then we were 30. Everything is fragmented. The guys who think their pristine PS40 is worth 300k will own those boats forever. As if any used sailboat is actually pristine.

The paradox of choice. And the more choices people have, the less satisfied they are with any choice made. Maybe we were better off with less variety?

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Here's another way to understand this. A recent study looked at the amount of US national wealth owned by the three recent generation (baby boomers, gen-x, millennial) when they hit their median age of 35.

From the study by economist Gray Kimbrough using Federal Reserve data:

• When baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) hit a median age of 35 in 1990, they collectively owned 21% of the nation’s wealth.

• At 35 Gen Xers (born between 1965 and 1980) owned just 9% of the nation’s wealth in 2008.

• The millennial generation (born between 1981 and 1996) will hit that 35 median age in three years. They currently own 3%.

From an article describing the study:

"Indeed, at a median age of 35, Gen Xers owned just 9% of the nation’s wealth in 2008 — less than half what boomers had at that age. And millennials will have to triple their net worth in the next four years to catch up to Generation X at 35, and increase their wealth sevenfold to catch up to boomers at that age.

That will be a difficult feat indeed considering most are saddled with student loan debt which has hit a record collective $1.6 trillion. The Federal Reserve estimates that more than a third of the 45 million Americans burdened by that debt are under 30."

This, in a nutshell, is why "the kids today" aren't buying boats, and why there is already a glut of used boats on the market. The kids aren't buying anything substantial because they don't have the same levels of wealth us oldies did/do.

Hasn’t it always been the case that older people had more assets? Other than the boom years after WWII, I would think that would almost always be the case.

While older generations generally have more wealth than younger ones. It doesn’t prevent younger generations from owning assets. It’s a matter of priority.

If anything, credit has made it easy to own anything if you want it badly enough, even if it’s more expensive in the long run.

When I look around, I see no shortage of luxury items. I also notice more and more subscription-based items, which I thing are a threat to asset building.

People seem to think a $600-$1000 smart phone is a necessity for a teenager, or even a child.

[cyan]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

• When baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) hit a median age of 35 in 1990, they collectively owned 21% of the nation’s wealth.
• At 35 Gen Xers (born between 1965 and 1980) owned just 9% of the nation’s wealth in 2008.

And... that Boomer 21% of 1990 total household net worth was 4.7 Trillion dollars. That Gen-X 9% of 2008 total household net worth was 6.1 Trillion dollars.
Why? Because all boats float higher in a rising tide. The absolute wealth is increasing exponentially,
The 35 year old Gen Xers actually were doing better than the 35 year old Boomers in absolute dollars. Who cares how good the 1% have it if everyone has it better? "Kids these days" might not be buying sailboats like they used to... but the reasons are clearly beyond just financial if we're talking about the US.

[Cpt Pat]

I admit I'm biased: I live in Silicon Valley where one has to be very careful while driving to not hit Gen-X pedestrians who wonder into the street while staring at their smartphones.

But it seems to me that Gen-Xers are more interested (I'll venture to say "addicted") to virtual experiences over real experiences. There are a good number of Internet marketeers who have advanced degrees in psychology promoting that addictive behavior. Sociopathy seems to be prime skill for employment at Facebook for promoting "user engagement." Social media has contributed greatly to diminishing empathy and social skills.

The younger people with whom I work spend their off time gaming in front of a computer screen. Spending time in sun and wind is just not appealing. And I suspect they would have strong aversions to the social aspects of crewing on a boat.

Long ago, DARPA net was developed to allow dynamic communications rerouting to compensate for a missile command and control facility being taken out by the enemy. It was meant to assure the launch of ICBMs and to destroy the world. It's successor is continuing that legacy.

As one of the early promoters and engineering developers of the Internet - if there is a Heaven - I hope upon my arrival the saints aren't waiting there at the pearly gates with clubs to greet me -- or that I don't get an achievement award at the gates of Hell.

[slug]

Originally Posted by Cpt Pat

I admit I'm biased: I live in Silicon Valley where one has to be very careful while driving to not hit Gen-X pedestrians who wonder into the street while staring at their smartphones.

But it seems to me that Gen-Xers are more interested (I'll venture to say "addicted") to virtual experiences over real experiences. There are a good number of Internet marketeers who have advanced degrees in psychology promoting that addictive behavior. Sociopathy seems to be prime skill for employment at Facebook for promoting "user engagement." Social media has contributed greatly to diminishing empathy and social skills.

The younger people with whom I work spend their off time gaming in front of a computer screen. Spending time in sun and wind is just not appealing. And I suspect they would have strong aversions to the social aspects of crewing on a boat.

Long ago, DARPA net was developed to allow dynamic communications rerouting to compensate for a missile command and control facility being taken out by the enemy. It was meant to assure the launch of ICBMs and to destroy the world. It's successor is continuing that legacy.

As one of the early promoters and engineering developers of the Internet - if there is a Heaven - I hope upon my arrival the saints aren't waiting there at the pearly gates with clubs to greet me -- or that I don't get an achievement award at the gates of Hell.

Yah

A whole generation corrupted

On the boat , when we sail out of internet coverage , they go crazy..... and start flip flopping around on deck like sardines