Will there be a glut of boats for sale once Baby Boomers retire from boating?

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Hasn’t it always been the case that older people had more assets? Other than the boom years after WWII, I would think that would almost always be the case.

Yes, but the analysis wasn't looking at total assets. It was comparing where each generation was at age 35 (the median age). And it was comparing at common dollars (2017, I think). So it was trying to do an apples-to-apples comparison. That's what makes it so interesting.

Originally Posted by cyan

And... that Boomer 21% of 1990 total household net worth was 4.7 Trillion dollars. That Gen-X 9% of 2008 total household net worth was 6.1 Trillion dollars.
Why? Because all boats float higher in a rising tide. The absolute wealth is increasing exponentially,
The 35 year old Gen Xers actually were doing better than the 35 year old Boomers in absolute dollars. Who cares how good the 1% have it if everyone has it better? "Kids these days" might not be buying sailboats like they used to... but the reasons are clearly beyond just financial if we're talking about the US.

You should read the analsyis. It was using an equivalnent dollar amount (2017 I think), so no, your numbers are not correct. And no, all boats are not floating higher. This fact well enunciated in economic literature.

[cyan]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

You should read the analsyis. It was using an equivalnent dollar amount (2017 I think), so no, your numbers are not correct. And no, all boats are not floating higher. This fact well enunciated in economic literature.

Hi Mike, I did only read the article and not the study. I found the article to be fatally flawed with the really tired "percentage of wealth" claims about the "depressing chart". What is my percentage of the loot? is a pirate's good question about a FINITE number of doubloons. It's a bad question when applied to a balloning national wealth.

The article did not mention the simple fact that the US pie is growing exponentially. If the peach pie on your plate contains more peaches than ever before, who cares if it now has a skinnier, longer shape? Who cares if the older people have collected bigger slices? Why not be happy with a fuller belly for yourself? There will be even more pie to go around tomorrow. No need for the percentage gripes of jealous pirates. See for yourself...
https://research.stlouisfed.org/

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by cyan

Hi Mike, I did only read the article and not the study. I found the article to be fatally flawed with the really tired "percentage of wealth" claims about the "depressing chart". What is my percentage of the loot? is a pirate's good question about a FINITE number of doubloons. It's a bad question when applied to a balloning national wealth.

The article did not mention the simple fact that the US pie is growing exponentially. If the peach pie on your plate contains more peaches than ever before, who cares if it now has a skinnier, longer shape? Who cares if the older people have collected bigger slices? Why not be happy with a fuller belly for yourself? There will be even more pie to go around tomorrow. No need for the percentage gripes of jealous pirates. See for yourself...
https://research.stlouisfed.org/

I don't know what relevance your link has. Seems to go to an economic research group. Maybe link to the paper you want me to read.

Whether the pie is growing is irrelevant to the point the research I referenced is making. You might choose to argue the proportion of wealth is decreasing, but the total amount is still increasing because the pie is getting biggger. But that's not the point they are making, and it really just dismisses the fact that wealth distribution is getting more and more inequitable.

The wealth gap between the younger generations is a reality. Median incomes for the vast majority of citizens have stagnated, while the costs for most of life's important items, from housing to education, have far outstripped inflation.

These are the core reasons why younger generations are less well off than older ones. And relevantly, I believe this is why there is already a glut of used boats on the market.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

The wealth gap between the younger generations is a reality. Median incomes for the vast majority of citizens have stagnated, while the costs for most of life's important items, from housing to education, have far outstripped inflation.

These are the core reasons why younger generations are less well off than older ones. And relevantly, I believe this is why there is already a glut of used boats on the market.

I'm not sure that's a valid conclusion. Like I said before, older generations have always had more wealth than younger ones.

I would suggest that part of the reason for a significant wealth gap between generations might be home ownership in key years where real estate values went up, or stock ownership as the stock market recovered, moreso than stagnant wages.

And there are plenty of boats available in all price ranges. Even smaller, less-expensive but capable boats aren't being purchased. So I'm guessing the shrinking proportion of sailors might be due more to people being interested in pursuits other than wealth stagnation that you're referencing. If you have information relevant to that topic, I'm sure it would be interesting for us.

[cyan]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I don't know what relevance your link has. Seems to go to an economic research group. Maybe link to the paper you want me to read.

Whether the pie is growing is irrelevant to the point the research I referenced is making. You might choose to argue the proportion of wealth is decreasing, but the total amount is still increasing because the pie is getting biggger. But that's not the point they are making, and it really just dismisses the fact that wealth distribution is getting more and more inequitable.

The wealth gap between the younger generations is a reality. Median incomes for the vast majority of citizens have stagnated, while the costs for most of life's important items, from housing to education, have far outstripped inflation.

These are the core reasons why younger generations are less well off than older ones. And relevantly, I believe this is why there is already a glut of used boats on the market.

Sorry Mike, I believe those statements do not accurately reflect the situation in US. I'll randomly pick one of your points: "housing is far outstripping inflation" Not so fast. In fact here is an analysis that disputes that common misconception when you consider the whole country (US) and the housing size...
If you adjust for inflation, you could buy a house for practically the same price as 40 years ago. The key is keeping the size of the house to what was “normal” 40 years ago.
https://www.supermoney.com/inflation...d-home-prices/

Perhaps the problems that you perceive are not at all a cause of the lack of sailboat buyers. We both love sailing and unplugging from the grid. My kids do not like to be disconnected. It could be that simple.

[Pizzazz]

A lot has been said about the economy and relative wealth. For me the facts are 1) sailboat sales have been going down; 2) most sailboats are rarely used and sit unused most of the time; 3) for most people, a power boat makes more sense for a day sail. This is especially true in Florida and SoCal, where the winds are fickle and many days there is just enough wind to enjoy the boat vs. the huge upkeep in between. All sailing clubs are very old and unattractive for families in their 30s/40s/early 50s. So, sailing is going down despite all the dreamy YouTube videos.

I see two major trends. One is that the entry level has gone up. On one hand, you can get a cheap boat and maintain it yourself but few people today have the skills or the time to do it. If you buy an entry level 30 footer new and add all the slip fees, insurance and paid labor to keep it good looking, the cost equals half the average US house. The utility is less. On the other hand, the entry level for proper cruising has gone down, ie one can buy a cheap second hand boat, outfit it for $30-50k and enjoy world cruising for a year or two which is enough of an adventure for most people. Both trends put pressure on the sailboat manufacturers with declining volume, less economies of scale and very high prices. How many people with pay $1 million on a new HR, etc. and what is the utility they will get out of it to justify the cost. It is a typical development of a declining industry.

I am not complaining as it is less crowded for the rest of us but I wish more younger people go into this. And I believe, we have a duty to be nice and friendly and answer all silly and repetitive questions by them with a solid effort. Also do the same in our local marinas.

SV Pizzazz

[Chotu]

I'll second that many people don't know how to change a lightbulb nevermind all the maintenance that goes into a boat.

[Marathon1150]

When in Vancouver and looking out at English Bay over the summer, I see very large number of kids sailing dinghys in lessons during the day and even more on long weekends, presumably in regattas. It looks like the number of kids starting to sail is staying constant if not increasing.

However, looking around the yacht club where we used to keep our boat, I share the observation that there are not many new young people showing up with large or small boats. Those that do are mostly interested in racing and they have boats geared to that part of the sport. The age distribution of "cruisers" is skewing heavily towards silver hairs and average cruising boat size has increased significantly over the past 10 to 20 years. So the club is short of large slips and the waiting list is long, but a 28' boat could probably find a slip within a few months even in Vancouver where there has been a long time moorage shortage.

[Fore and Aft]

How about the simple fact that sailing is slow and can be boring as hell sometimes. I grew up used to doing 100-110kmh so getting on the yacht takes adjusting to going slow. Life seems faster these days and just poking along is not a lot of peoples idea of fun.
I am not sure if cheap airfares have anything to do with it but I can take my family somewhere exotic for a holiday for the same cost of berthing, maintaining and insuring our yacht for a year. Last year we travelled for a month in Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and NZ and it cost less than our yearly yacht bill.
Cheers

[alctel]

Sailing is getting more and more expensive and so is cruising. Where I am in Mexico right now the dinghy dock just doubled in price to 6 CAD a day. The haulout and bottom paint is over 3k CAD (can't do the work yourself). Everything seems priced towards rich USD using retirees.

Everyone younger generally has a lot less money - out of all the people I know my age or younger (mid 30s), only around 30% of them actually have more savings than debt. And I only know two people my age with a house, and both of them had rich parents who paid for school and the downpayment. That three percent figure Mike was talking about doesn't surprise me, wages have stagnated for the last 20 years

I'm sure it'll come around eventually

[Island Time O25]

Have to strongly disagree about costs in inflation adjusted dollars of essentials 40 years ago and now being similar. Better comparsion would be to calculate hours worked needed to pay for those essentials.

My own experience. While in high school worked for minimum wage or thereabout of $3-3.50/hr. So working full time would get me approximately $120-150/wk gross (let's just keep it gross for sake of simplicity) which worked out to about $6.5-7K per year income.

I could rent a studio or a room in a shared apartment for about $120-150/month. So I needed to work 1 week to be housed for a month. In my neighborhood condos were selling for $25-30K, houses for $50-70K. Meaning a kid out of high school before any college would need 4 years worth of minimum wage income to buy a basic condo.

Fast forward today. Minimum wage is $10.00 here in MA. A studio in the same neighborhood as in examples above today is at least $1,500 and a room in a shared apartment is at least $1,000, most likely $1,200-1,400/month. So today same kid out of high school will need to work not 1 week but practically 3 or 4 weeks to afford the very basic housing arrangements. And that's before buying any $1,000 smartphones, $400 sneakers and $5 lattes.

As far as buying today. Minimum wage is $21K/yr. Same neighborhood as above condos today start at $300K and up. Houses $600K and up. Meaning a kid out of high school would need to work 15 years at a minimum wage job to buy a basic condo, never mind a house.

Same price escalation happened in education and medical costs. In early-mid 80s I attended a state university which at the time cost (classes only) $600 per semester when I started and about $900 per semester when I graduated. Today the very same state U is $25-30K per year and rising.

My medical insurance during college was well under $300 per year as I recall $245 or thereabout. How much is it today?

Between those 3 costs (housing, education, medical expenses) plus the "gubment" cut I just don't see any money left over for any discretionary spending activities such as boating for anyone who is making under $100K if single and under $150-200K if married with family. And the scariest part is that these numbers are not conducive to boat ownership during a so-called robust economy. G-d help us what the numbers will be during a prolonged slump.

[HeinSdL]

I see two effects leading to this potential/already existing glut.

Firstly, on the financial side, post WWII, there were some very good decades from an economic perspective. The population was young and growing, life expectancy was going up, there was a lot of work to be done both (re-)building infrastructure as well as implementing basic improvements to life such as washing machines and wide spread car ownership. We never had it so good and could afford to make lavish promises especially on the pensions side (certainly in Europe) and the surging demand for housing caused very sizeable increases in household wealth which could easily be monetized (driven by a bottoming out of interest rates towards 0% today starting at close to 20% in the Volcker days, early 80's). And so it goes on. But ALL these effects have now run their cause and relatively easy wealth (easy meaning as a result of the favourable economic environment) is no longer available. Typical example being pensions whereby the gold standard final salary schemes are gone, replaced by... probably no pension at all for those near the start of their professional life. And house prices in Europe are unlikely to increase by another factor 4 or so over the next 2 decades.

Secondly, there is the effect of lack of interest (in sailing). Here, I am at a loss adequately explaining why there is so little interest now in activities such as sailing. Sailing a dinghy is not THAT expensive, comparable to keeping up to date with the latest gadgets, but it seems that Big Tech has done an outstanding job at fully capturing all the discretionary spending available today (both in terms of money and time). And that will eventually lead to a complete hollowing out of the typical human being. Not willing to buy a boat is just one effect we will see, and not the worst one.

[Island Time O25]

To add 2c on the non income/wealth related possible causes.

The last several decades there was a monumental shift in the society's perception of what constitutes "safe activities". From seat belts, cigarettes, bike helmets, letting your kids roam around the streets unattended, etc, etc. - pretty much anything short of standing doing nothing is now considered unsafe. Even sitting on the couch or on a chair for too long is now considered medically unhealthy.

With that shift of the paradigm I don't think sailing scores well on the safe activities scale. And not just sailing but anything outdoor these days has to be done under very controlled conditions. And by its very nature sailing will never be 100% safe. As they say - timetables and firm ETAs are sailor's worst enemies. They are also sailing's worst enemies these days.

[slug]

Originally Posted by HeinSdL

I see two effects leading to this potential/already existing glut.

Firstly, on the financial side, post WWII, there were some very good decades from an economic perspective. The population was young and growing, life expectancy was going up, there was a lot of work to be done both (re-)building infrastructure as well as implementing basic improvements to life such as washing machines and wide spread car ownership. We never had it so good and could afford to make lavish promises especially on the pensions side (certainly in Europe) and the surging demand for housing caused very sizeable increases in household wealth which could easily be monetized (driven by a bottoming out of interest rates towards 0% today starting at close to 20% in the Volcker days, early 80's). And so it goes on. But ALL these effects have now run their cause and relatively easy wealth (easy meaning as a result of the favourable economic environment) is no longer available. Typical example being pensions whereby the gold standard final salary schemes are gone, replaced by... probably no pension at all for those near the start of their professional life. And house prices in Europe are unlikely to increase by another factor 4 or so over the next 2 decades.

Secondly, there is the effect of lack of interest (in sailing). Here, I am at a loss adequately explaining why there is so little interest now in activities such as sailing. Sailing a dinghy is not THAT expensive, comparable to keeping up to date with the latest gadgets, but it seems that Big Tech has done an outstanding job at fully capturing all the discretionary spending available today (both in terms of money and time). And that will eventually lead to a complete hollowing out of the typical human being. Not willing to buy a boat is just one effect we will see, and not the worst one.

Also consider the way people own boats these days

Bareboat charter , the waterfront is constipated with bareboats

This is a relatively new phenomenon

Kinda like cars... nobody owns cars these days. they lease , then dump them
Same with boats

[redneckrob]

Originally Posted by Island Time O25

To add 2c on the non income/wealth related possible causes.

The last several decades there was a monumental shift in the society's perception of what constitutes "safe activities". From seat belts, cigarettes, bike helmets, letting your kids roam around the streets unattended, etc, etc. - pretty much anything short of standing doing nothing is now considered unsafe. Even sitting on the couch or on a chair for too long is now considered medically unhealthy.

With that shift of the paradigm I don't think sailing scores well on the safe activities scale. And not just sailing but anything outdoor these days has to be done under very controlled conditions. And by its very nature sailing will never be 100% safe. As they say - timetables and firm ETAs are sailor's worst enemies. They are also sailing's worst enemies these days.

Sorry but I don't know anyone my age or younger (late 40s) who made a decision not to sail because it isn't "safe"! To the contrary a lot of them are out rock climbing, flying ultralights, doing somewhat extreme athletic sports (marathons, triathlons...) and a myriad of other activities that are all growing despite being unquestionably less "safe" then sailing.

I'd have to say that this is just one of a litany of "kids these days" rants that this thread has exposed. Has anyone thought that maybe, just maybe, the "kids these days" aren't interested in sailing because it's populated by a bunch of figurative "grumpy old men" who spend their time pejoratively (and incorrectly) attributing all kinds of negative stereotypes to them and their entire generation? Who wants to spend their time around that? And maybe, just maybe, they actually are out sailing, they're just avoiding the constant negativity, stereotyping, and outright insults that are on full display here so you don't actually see them?