Will there be a glut of boats for sale once Baby Boomers retire from boating?

[slug]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Your first statement is patently false. It's not supported by your selective statistic. You've heard the expression "Lies, damned lies, and statistics"? I suppose a great way to manipulate social mobility would be to look at the likelihood of moving from the bottom quartile to the top one. Yes, that's quite the stretch, and sort of a nonsense comparison. What a statistic like that doesn't capture is whether someone even wants to move from the bottom quartile to the top, or whether government services has them trapped by negative incentives not to make too much, or they'll lose their subsidy.

It may well be that according to their survey, more people make it to the top quartile from the bottom quartile in some countries other than the U.S. Very possibly because the bottom quartile in the U.S. is pretty hopeless from an educational perspective, and because some of the government and societal incentives are to stay exactly where you are.

But I've run a company in Europe, and I can assure you that the bureaucracy there is ridiculous compared to that of the U.S. If you have ambition in the U.S., I like your odds compared to almost anywhere else. Which is also why we have a lot of young people from other countries moving to the U.S. (legally or illegally). There is social mobility in the U.S., even if the social justice warriors are hell-bent to prove it doesn't exist. Maybe it doesn't exist for everyone, but only the ones who really want it.

As for the second one I'm mentioning here, I'm going to go ahead and suggest that a lot of spending isn't out of necessity, but out of want. I look around and I see people eating the value meal at McDonald's using a $1000 smart phone. People who drop by the mall on the way back from the unemployment office to put a TV on their credit card. Yes, it's important to make the right choices. But the choices are theirs to make.

It pays to be smart. It pays to be ambitious. It pays to get an education, no matter what. And you do have to take responsibility for your own choices. You show me a person who doesn't have a boat, and I'll show you one who hasn't made it a high enough priority to have one. I would say that's true in any of the top 15 or 30 world economies. The mobility is there. The ambition may not be.

And yes, I advocate freedom over the nanny state.

I agree

Lies and dam lies

Social mobility is alive and well in the US

It’s true that the middle class is shrinking , but this is because the middle class is moving up and into the Upper Middle class.


It’s also true that the lower class has expanded.

This can be solved by reforming the broken immigration system and implementing a system that selects immigrants by their achievement level , not their proximity to the southern border

[Mike OReilly]

Look guys, I don't want to argue basic facts. You're as capable as I to do the searches. Look for anything like "social mobility OECD" and you'll find the ample data. Here's just one recent report:

http://www.oecd.org/economy/growth/N...mic-growth.pdf

BTW, it's not just an American problem. Virtually all developed countries are experiencing it. It's more pronounced in some, like the US and the UK. But it's certainly not unique.

What may be unique is Americans persistent belief that it ain't so. This too has come up in many studies, which you will no doubt dismiss .


But this is taking us closer to getting the thread closed. To get back to the main point, I'm presenting evidence to support my thesis that one of the reasons we're seeing a glut of boats on the used market is b/c the younger generations aren't taking it up in the same way. AND that is due, in large part, to basic economics.

[slug]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Look guys, I don't want to argue basic facts. You're as capable as I to do the searches. Look for anything like "social mobility OECD" and you'll find the ample data. Here's just one recent report:

http://www.oecd.org/economy/growth/N...mic-growth.pdf

BTW, it's not just an American problem. Virtually all developed countries are experiencing it. It's more pronounced in some, like the US and the UK. But it's certainly not unique.

What may be unique is Americans persistent belief that it ain't so. This too has come up in many studies, which you will no doubt dismiss .

How do they account for the change in family unit structure ?

Single parent households

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Look guys, I don't want to argue basic facts. You're as capable as I to do the searches. Look for anything like "social mobility OECD" and you'll find the ample data. Here's just one recent report:

http://www.oecd.org/economy/growth/N...mic-growth.pdf

BTW, it's not just an American problem. Virtually all developed countries are experiencing it. It's more pronounced in some, like the US and the UK. But it's certainly not unique.

What may be unique is Americans persistent belief that it ain't so. This too has come up in many studies, which you will no doubt dismiss .


But this is taking us closer to getting the thread closed. To get back to the main point, I'm presenting evidence to support my thesis that one of the reasons we're seeing a glut of boats on the used market is b/c the younger generations aren't taking it up in the same way. AND that is due, in large part, to basic economics.

We're not arguing basic facts.

We're arguing perceptions and statistics designed specifically to conform to an agenda.

And just to be fair, please list a time period or country where things were or are better/more fair than they are now in the U.S. I think you'll find problems with any comparison. Either by size, diversity, or basic economic fact. Yes, the U.S. after WWII would be an example, as the centers of production were destroyed everywhere else in the war. Let's have some other examples, though, just by social contract.

The fact is that the middle class in the U.S. has more luxury than J.D. Rockefeller had (apart from the servants - but we've got technology serving us).

Oh, sure, list Sweden, why don't you? And then get back to me on their diversity numbers and small population, because that will surely trouble you next.

I think you're going to find that things aren't so bad right now in the U.S.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

To get back to the main point, I'm presenting evidence to support my thesis that one of the reasons we're seeing a glut of boats on the used market is b/c the younger generations aren't taking it up in the same way. AND that is due, in large part, to basic economics.

This part of your thesis is correct, and we're all agreeing with it: the reasons we're seeing a glut of boats on the used market is b/c the younger generations aren't taking it up in the same way.

To claim that it's all or even mostly because of economics just isn't borne out by any facts.

I think the more likely culprit is that real world adventure has to compete with virtual adventures that are easier to achieve.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

This part of your thesis is correct, and we're all agreeing with it: the reasons we're seeing a glut of boats on the used market is b/c the younger generations aren't taking it up in the same way.

To claim that it's all or even mostly because of economics just isn't borne out by any facts.

All you're doing is stating the problem. The question is WHY? I've provided a reason, which IS borne out by the facts. They are facts you don't like, but they are the facts.

But regardless... If it ain't economics, what is your reason? Others have referenced changing recreational desires. This too begs the question: why? I do think the uptake of digital distractions is part of the answer, but I'm always cautious of these kinds of answers. Afterall, the same doom and gloom predictions about kids of the 70s and 80s being tied to the TV were amply made.

[slug]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

This part of your thesis is correct, and we're all agreeing with it: the reasons we're seeing a glut of boats on the used market is b/c the younger generations aren't taking it up in the same way.

To claim that it's all or even mostly because of economics just isn't borne out by any facts.

Baby boom demographics is part of the cause

Alternatives like charter also contribute

And in what world did young people ever buy yachts ?

When I was a young guy, doctors and lawyers owned 30 footers and young guys cleaned them

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

All you're doing is stating the problem. The question is WHY? I've provided a reason, which IS borne out by the facts. They are facts you don't like, but they are the facts.

But regardless... If it ain't economics, what is your reason? Others have referenced changing recreational desires. This too begs the question: why? I do think the uptake of digital distractions is part of the answer, but I'm always cautious of these kinds of answers. Afterall, the same doom and gloom predictions about kids of the 70s and 80s being tied to the TV were amply made.

Bring us some facts, then. But don't just make up causal relationships that you're creating without the proper linkages, and which conform to a social agenda outside the scope here.

We've pointed out the activities that younger people are pursuing with their finite time. There are multiple reasons that younger people aren't taking up golf, tennis, and sailing. Those don't have to be expensive hobbies, as there are multiple ways to enjoy those sports, some of which are economically achievable for anybody in the middle class.

Some of the reasons might be the same as why the Olympics are starting to look like the X-games. Interests change.

[AKA-None]

Something to consider is that when you are young you want more experiences faster. And as you age you tend to like to take a breather.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by slug

Baby boom demographics is part of the cause

Alternatives like charter also contribute

And in what world did young people ever buy yachts ?

When I was a young guy, doctors and lawyers owned 30 footers and young guys cleaned them

I'll have to agree with that assessment. I would say that it's easier now than ever to buy a small sailboat. It will likely be older, and you won't be able to find a place to put it.

And I would point out something else. There is no shortage of powerboats being sold.

[MTang]

Originally Posted by cyan

Nah. I think it's something else. I spend more time with 20-somethings than any other age group because my work is mostly staffed with that demo and my kids are in that group. Among the snowboarding, camping, mountain biking that we all do... the least favorite is a day sail. Never mind cruising. My son's girlfriend complained all (beautiful) day on her first and last sail with us on a 36' Bene. Spotty cell reception, "nothing to do" (except enjoy the beautiful view and look for dolphins). There is a big group of 21-26 yo friends than hang at our place on the weekends. They are all interested in wakeboarding or another houseboat trip or borrowing a beer... but none seem too keen on a (free) leisurely sail on Santa Monica Bay or a weekend in Catalina. The guys in the group would rather spend their time online gaming with headsets. The girls mostly do stuff on their phones- not sure what exactly. We throw no pejoratives or stereotypes. On weekends, we simply encourage anyone who wants to tag along for a sail and a margarita made with real lime and a sunset. "Thanks, not my jam" is a common response.

I suspect there is something going on here beyond grumpy old sailors chasing away perfectly willing youngsters by displaying bad attitudes.

Cyan, I hate to break it to you, but that sounds boring as hell. I am 37 and love to surf, kiteboard, dive, fish, and SAIL! But my idea of sailing is not on a monohull going 6 kts. Its going 12-15 knots on a mutlihull or a beach cat threatening to capsize any moment. Now that is fun!



Sipping a cocktail and going slow is probably good times for more sedentary type folk or ones who are just looking for a relaxing day. But if you are an active person who likes adventure, that is not how you would choose to spend your leisure time.


Cruising attracts me because the journey is the experience. A leisurely daysail is much different from a journey where your goal is to reach a destination. The active things one can do once you reach the destination are enhanced because you had to work to get there, not just jump on a plane. This latter part is lost on the younger folk who have been corrupted by instant gratification.



If multihulls came down in price (which they won't), I think you would see more young people interested. But spending 50-100k on a monohull that is 30+ years old, goes 6 knots, and eats dollars like nobody's business is just not going to appeal to a lot of young people.

[Time2Go]

Being born in the exact middle of the Baby Boom
with an advanced degree in the dark science and a member of
Omicron Delta Epsilon
Here’s my two cents:
I no longer have any belief in statistics without knowing the methodology
and science behind them. (And even these can be manipulated)
Certainly not anything on the Internet.
It is my belief that sailboating is slowing down because of
lack of Marina space and the cost of slips.
Most of the Marinas of my youth are now Waterfront Condo Developments.
No access No Participation.
I have not read the whole thread but believe the proliferation of
YouTube Sailing channels also has a part here.
Join the tribe, Join the Family, Give us a few Patron dollars and
“We Will Take You With Us”
One even tags
“Go sailing without getting off your couch”
Read some of the comments and it’s just Plain Sad
These folks (viewers )think they art part of the adventure
But in reality are just being marketed to.
They think they are part of it but are really just
Purchasers of Programming.
Hey, If any sociology students are here
this whole living vicariously thru YouTube would be a
great Phd thesis topic.

By the way I’m no longer a big boat owner just have my Daysailer
But spend a lot of time at sea crewing on others
At my age owning a boat makes no sense
For me it’s all about “Days Cruising in Different Places”
so for that I fly around jumping on and off different boats.
I can spend 20K a year doing this, instead of slip fees and
spend a heck of a lot of time on passage. Not to mention a
few deliveries thrown in.
That said, in the next year or so I will be trying to put together a
syndicate of boomers to buy a boat for the express purpose
Of doing the World ARC
Boat will be named “Bones” because I have some Titanium ones.
Cheers
Neil

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Time2Go

Being born in the exact middle of the Baby Boom
with an advanced degree in the dark science and a member of
Omicron Delta Epsilon
Here’s my two cents:
I no longer have any belief in statistics without knowing the methodology
and science behind them. (And even these can be manipulated)
Certainly not anything on the Internet.
It is my belief that sailboating is slowing down because of
lack of Marina space and the cost of slips.
Most of the Marinas of my youth are now Waterfront Condo Developments.
No access No Participation.
I have not read the whole thread but believe the proliferation of
YouTube Sailing channels also has a part here.
Join the tribe, Join the Family, Give us a few Patron dollars and
“We Will Take You With Us”
One even tags
“Go sailing without getting off your couch”
Read some of the comments and it’s just Plain Sad
These folks (viewers )think they art part of the adventure
But in reality are just being marketed to.
They think they are part of it but are really just
Purchasers of Programming.
Hey, If any sociology students are here
this whole living vicariously thru YouTube would be a
great Phd thesis topic.

By the way I’m no longer a big boat owner just have my Daysailer
But spend a lot of time at sea crewing on others
At my age owning a boat makes no sense
For me it’s all about “Days Cruising in Different Places”
so for that I fly around jumping on and off different boats.
I can spend 20K a year doing this, instead of slip fees and
spend a heck of a lot of time on passage. Not to mention a
few deliveries thrown in.
That said, in the next year or so I will be trying to put together a
syndicate of boomers to buy a boat for the express purpose
Of doing the World ARC
Boat will be named “Bones” because I have some Titanium ones.
Cheers
Neil

Bravo. That is a sound analysis.

It's so much easier to be a patron of some twenty-something adventurer on Youtube with his bikini-clad companion than to go bouncing around on the ocean on a fragile fiberglass boat that you own in search of a marina to park it in. Maybe this is the real calculation here.

You are the king of the internet, today. Or at least of this thread.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Time2Go

... It is my belief that sailboating is slowing down because of
lack of Marina space and the cost of slips.
Most of the Marinas of my youth are now Waterfront Condo Developments.
No access No Participation.

Sounds reasonable Neil. I wonder though if this is true generally speaking, or only specific to certain areas. I know in my cruising areas there's no lack of slips or space. But it might be true in other, more densely populated areas.

But here too, the reason marinas are being converted to condos is basic economics. It's more profitable to develop a condo on the water than a marina. And I'll bet you the demographics of who is buying these expensive condos are largely aging baby boomers.

As the old adage goes, if you want to understand something, just follow the money.

Originally Posted by Time2Go

I have not read the whole thread but believe the proliferation of

YouTube Sailing channels also has a part here.
Join the tribe, Join the Family, Give us a few Patron dollars and
“We Will Take You With Us”
One even tags
“Go sailing without getting off your couch”
Read some of the comments and it’s just Plain Sad
These folks (viewers )think they art part of the adventure
But in reality are just being marketed to.
They think they are part of it but are really just
Purchasers of Programming.
Hey, If any sociology students are here
this whole living vicariously thru YouTube would be a
great Phd thesis topic.

Perhaps ... but is this really anything new? New in scale perhaps, but the glossy sailing mags of old (and that still exist) mostly marketed the sizzle. They market to the dreamers and the planners, much like most of these youtubers. Most people never go cruising -- this has always been true.

But I do wonder if this does tie into the increasing use of screen time as a means of entertainment. It could be that while it's nothing new, it is new in scale. Indeed, bring on the sociology researchers!

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by Time2Go

. . .
I have not read the whole thread but believe the proliferation of
YouTube Sailing channels also has a part here.
Join the tribe, Join the Family, Give us a few Patron dollars and
“We Will Take You With Us”
One even tags
“Go sailing without getting off your couch”
Read some of the comments and it’s just Plain Sad
These folks (viewers )think they art part of the adventure
But in reality are just being marketed to.
They think they are part of it but are really just
Purchasers of Programming.
Hey, If any sociology students are here
this whole living vicariously thru YouTube would be a
great Phd thesis topic.

. . .

Neil

The average American spends a staggering 11 hours, 54 minutes each day connected to some form of media — TV, smartphones, radio, games — although that number is bloated because some of the usage is simultaneous. That's up nearly an hour and a half in only a year. Streaming services like Netflix or Hulu account for 19% of television viewing in the United States now for people who have that capacity, virtually double what it was less than two years ago. A Nielsen company study illustrated how quickly consumers have embraced streaming as an alternative to live TV. The percentage of time spent streaming has gone from 10% in a Nielsen study from March 2018 to 19% during the last three months of 2019.