Will there be a glut of boats for sale once Baby Boomers retire from boating?

[robert sailor]

40 years ago when we first started cruising offshore, many if not most cruisers were right around my age. The average sized boat was around mid 30's. Today the only thing that's changed is no one, or very few cruisers want mid 30's sized boats. Today they want lower 40's on up to 50's sized boats. The average age of cruisers is also gone way up, few real adventurers and more local cruisers who never learned to sail until much later in life. Often we meet sailors that are retired and they are sailing their first boat. As I mentioned earlier many have sold their house to afford the habit. So maybe people starting out sailing in their youth is a really good thing for the sport but there is just too much competition for each person's time and money these days. I'm heavily involved in aviation and it's the same there as well. If your trying to sell a boat under 40 feet these days I'm sure it's a tougher sale but if you have the right boat, in the right condition it's not really that hard.

[cyan]

Originally Posted by MTang

Cyan, I hate to break it to you, but that sounds boring as hell. I am 37 and love to surf, kiteboard, dive, fish, and SAIL! But my idea of sailing is not on a monohull going 6 kts. Its going 12-15 knots on a mutlihull or a beach cat threatening to capsize any moment. Now that is fun!

Sipping a cocktail and going slow is probably good times for more sedentary type folk or ones who are just looking for a relaxing day. But if you are an active person who likes adventure, that is not how you would choose to spend your leisure time.

Cruising attracts me because the journey is the experience. A leisurely daysail is much different from a journey where your goal is to reach a destination. The active things one can do once you reach the destination are enhanced because you had to work to get there, not just jump on a plane. This latter part is lost on the younger folk who have been corrupted by instant gratification.

If multihulls came down in price (which they won't), I think you would see more young people interested. But spending 50-100k on a monohull that is 30+ years old, goes 6 knots, and eats dollars like nobody's business is just not going to appeal to a lot of young people.

Haa, you make a pretty good point. When I was 23, I probably would have found 6 knots boring too. Alas, we are lucky around here to get 10 knots onshore breeze, for maybe a couple of hours in the afternoon. Your beach cat would be aimlessly bobbing in the swells here.
You also made a funny point. You proudly listed your favorite activities and included fishing. I guarantee you that out of the dozen or so California 20-somethings to which I refer, all but one or two would declare fishing as extremely boring too. (not me, though)

Perhaps your mention of instant gratification has merit. Most of our younger crowd is quite happy doing very little on a power boat, where you can hit the throttle after a lazy float in the sun and instantly change scenery. Maybe we wind-powered folks are simply the odd ones.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Here's another way to understand this. A recent study looked at the amount of US national wealth owned by the three recent generation (baby boomers, gen-x, millennial) when they hit their median age of 35.

From the study by economist Gray Kimbrough using Federal Reserve data:

• When baby boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) hit a median age of 35 in 1990, they collectively owned 21% of the nation’s wealth.

• At 35 Gen Xers (born between 1965 and 1980) owned just 9% of the nation’s wealth in 2008.

• The millennial generation (born between 1981 and 1996) will hit that 35 median age in three years. They currently own 3%.

From an article describing the study:

"Indeed, at a median age of 35, Gen Xers owned just 9% of the nation’s wealth in 2008 — less than half what boomers had at that age. And millennials will have to triple their net worth in the next four years to catch up to Generation X at 35, and increase their wealth sevenfold to catch up to boomers at that age.

That will be a difficult feat indeed considering most are saddled with student loan debt which has hit a record collective $1.6 trillion. The Federal Reserve estimates that more than a third of the 45 million Americans burdened by that debt are under 30."

This, in a nutshell, is why "the kids today" aren't buying boats, and why there is already a glut of used boats on the market. The kids aren't buying anything substantial because they don't have the same levels of wealth us oldies did/do.

Boomers are a special case:
- The WWII generation had a significant portion dead before boomers hit 35...so wealth transfer.
- Depression generation was hit very hard, so they owned less as boomers hit 35.
- Boomers started their careers in a golden age when someone with an 8th grade education could go down to the local plant and make the equivalent (in today's dollars) of $100k...why because every industrialized area in the world was destroyed and supply/demand drove up wages. That's not a repeatable event.

These things left a lot higher percentage of the countries wealth in Boomer hands.

I suspect the millenials are also a product of this pattern in that Boomers are living longer than previous generations and since they aren't getting killed off in large numbers in war, they are spending the wealth they collected rather than passing it to the millenial generation.

[valhalla360]

To answer the original question:

I expect to see a substantial shift in the next 5-10yrs.

Boomers on average are around 65...in the next 5-10yrs, they will be pushing 70-75...while there is the stray 85yr old guy out there still sailing, most get out of the sport by their early 70's. It's simply the physical capabilities drop off.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by cyan

Social mobility studies that I have read often lament the shrinking middle class in the US without addressing all the facts ...

A Broken Social Elevator? How to Promote Social Mobility
➥ https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/socia...01085-en#page7

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said that, for every generation, since the baby boom of the 1940s, across 40 major countries, the middle-income group had shrunk, and its economic influence weakened.
As many as 70% of the baby boomers (born between 1942 and 1964) were part of the middle class in their 20s, compared with 60% of millennials (born between 1983 and 2002), at the same point in life, the OECD said.
Income inequality has increased and social mobility stalled across the world’s richest countries, trapping families on low incomes at the bottom of the earnings ladder.

[Island Time O25]

Another personal anecdote perhaps related to this discussion. Back in 2004 or 2005 when I was looking for a boat I looked at a well kept early 1970s Ericson 29. The gentleman selling her was in his mid 80s and said that age and the fact that his wife hasn't stepped on board in 5 years, was the reason to sell. He was looking to get a power boat if the wife would agree to come along once in a while.

The asking price was down to $7.5K from $9K, apparently with room for more haggling. And that included a mooring ownership as well. I ended up not even making an offer on that boat since after more careful consideration its Atomic 4 became a show stopper for me. Come to think of it now, perhaps the young generation today looks at our 30-40 year old boats the way I looked at that Atomic 4 15 years ago - a dinosaur to be put to pasture.

Also, as has been pointed out, the splitting of the true middle class into upper middle class and lower middle class is reflected in boat buying habits. The upper segment goes for cats, fractional ownership of newish racing boats of all kinds, etc. The lower segment is content with attending the boat shows, gawking at at the few samples of sailboats there. And the proliferation of charter offerings throughout the world coupled with relatively cheap airfares definitely had an impact. A lot of people only have that 1 or 2 weeks a year to sail so for them the choice is obvious.

[Cpt Pat]

Originally Posted by Joe Deepwater

I'm a power boater. Is there an average age when being tipped on a sail boat becomes too physically grueling? Do most sailors shift from sailing to power boating when this happens? Are we likely to see the demographic of Boomers sell their sailboats and buy power boats, leaving a glut of mostly sail boats? Or generally just retire from frequent boating altogether?

In my view, there are three classes of boats: sailboats, auxiliary sailboats (sailboats with engines or what I call "wind-assisted motorboats"), and motorboats. The CG sees it that way too: I hold a Master's credential with an auxiliary sailing vessel endorsement. Getting a "pure" sail endorsement without the "auxiliary" restriction is more difficult because it requires additional skill.

The usual progression with time that I see is: sailboat to auxiliary sailboat to motorboat. Not that that progression necessarily indicates any increase in skill -- usually just an increase in belt line circumference / body mass index.

They say a person should increase their sailboat length by one foot for every year of age because the larger boats are more docile. By that measure, I'm 40 feet behind.

So far as the physically grueling part is concerned, I sometimes have a 90 pound woman doing all the work aboard my boat, and she does just fine. It's only a matter of skill and knowing how to properly use mechanical advantages (winches, etc.). I find standing in one place helming a motorboat to be physically more difficult than the necessary moving around done on a sailboat. My old joints get stiff.

[redneckrob]

Originally Posted by Montanan

The average American spends a staggering 11 hours, 54 minutes each day connected to some form of media — TV, smartphones, radio, games — although that number is bloated because some of the usage is simultaneous. That's up nearly an hour and a half in only a year. Streaming services like Netflix or Hulu account for 19% of television viewing in the United States now for people who have that capacity, virtually double what it was less than two years ago. A Nielsen company study illustrated how quickly consumers have embraced streaming as an alternative to live TV. The percentage of time spent streaming has gone from 10% in a Nielsen study from March 2018 to 19% during the last three months of 2019.

He laments connected to some form of media typing this lament.....

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Boomers are a special case:
- The WWII generation had a significant portion dead before boomers hit 35...so wealth transfer.
- Depression generation was hit very hard, so they owned less as boomers hit 35.
- Boomers started their careers in a golden age when someone with an 8th grade education could go down to the local plant and make the equivalent (in today's dollars) of $100k...why because every industrialized area in the world was destroyed and supply/demand drove up wages. That's not a repeatable event.

These things left a lot higher percentage of the countries wealth in Boomer hands.

I suspect the millenials are also a product of this pattern in that Boomers are living longer than previous generations and since they aren't getting killed off in large numbers in war, they are spending the wealth they collected rather than passing it to the millenial generation.

Interesting points Val. There has indeed been a fundamental shift in how work gets compensated. The shifting of manufacturing to low-wage areas, and probably more importantly, the increasing automation and now AI-ation, has decimated many well-paying sectors in the developed worlds' economies.

Of course, there are still jobs. It's just that we don't compensate them at the same levels. This, I would argue, is due to intentional policy changes, both in government and in the business sectors. There's no reason today's low-education jobs can't be compensated at equally high levels. It's a societal choice.

Like you, I mused a while back that it may be that the post-war period, where the rising economic tide really did float all boats, may actually be the anomaly. The long-term normal really is some sort of feudal structure where the few control most of the wealth. And the many are turned into renters, and live precarious lives. This certainly seems to describe most (but not all) developed economies these days.

This is why I too predict a continued decline in cruising-level boat ownership. Comes down to basic economics and demographics as the Baby Boomers increasingly take that last sail off into the sunset.

BTW, this is great for those of us left. Boats should become increasingly available, with decreasing price tags. I think anyone who has looked at the used boat market in recent years already knows this. This will continue for some time.

[slug]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Interesting points Val. There has indeed been a fundamental shift in how work gets compensated. The shifting of manufacturing to low-wage areas, and probably more importantly, the increasing automation and now AI-ation, has decimated many well-paying sectors in the developed worlds' economies.

Of course, there are still jobs. It's just that we don't compensate them at the same levels. This, I would argue, is due to intentional policy changes, both in government and in the business sectors. There's no reason today's low-education jobs can't be compensated at equally high levels. It's a societal choice.

Like you, I mused a while back that it may be that the post-war period, where the rising economic tide really did float all boats, may actually be the anomaly. The long-term normal really is some sort of feudal structure where the few control most of the wealth. And the many are turned into renters, and live precarious lives. This certainly seems to describe most (but not all) developed economies these days.

This is why I too predict a continued decline in cruising-level boat ownership. Comes down to basic economics and demographics as the Baby Boomers increasingly take that last sail off into the sunset.

BTW, this is great for those of us left. Boats should become increasingly available, with decreasing price tags. I think anyone who has looked at the used boat market in recent years already knows this. This will continue for some time.

The faster you increase the cost of human labor , the faster machines will take over

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by slug

The faster you increase the cost of human labor , the faster machines will take over

Since the opposite has been happening AND we're still seeing the machines take over, evidence suggests it really doesn't matter whether wages go down. We're all going to be out of a job soon.

And it's not just so-called low skilled jobs. It's virtually everyone. The robots took the mechanically repetitive jobs first. Now AI is taking the mentally repetitive ones. And most white-collar jobs are repetitive; from accountants and investment bankers to lawyers and doctors, AI is already proving it can do most of these tasks, and often do them better than their human counterpart.

And we're just at the beginning of this AI evolution.

This is not an original observation, but I say we're rapidly transitioning to an economy without jobs. We're going to have to find a way to disentangle wages from productivity.

[slug]

Reduce population growth

Lock down the borders

That’s a good start

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by slug

Reduce population growth

Lock down the borders

That’s a good start

Sounds more like plans for the zombie apocalypse .

[redneckrob]

Originally Posted by slug

Reduce population growth

Lock down the borders

That’s a good start

Reducing the population of potential buyers increases the number of potential buyers? Oh, it's the brown skinned people stealing all those high paying jobs of the would-be sailboat buyers so they can't afford to buy boats....except the brown skinned people stealing the high paying jobs themselves aren't wealthy enough to afford to buy boats despite stealing the high paying jobs....wait a minute, your statement just doesn't make any sense any way you look at it!

A quick hint for you, the places where populations are shrinking and immigration is severely restricted, Japan being the clearest example, are most definitely not seeing increased prosperity and disposable incomes (or increased boat ownership for that matter, despite being an island nation). So epic fail on those ideas in practice as well.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by slug

Reduce population growth

Apply anti-fouling paint to hull to inhibit marine growth, Check.
Accomplished.

Lock down the borders

Require keyed entry to docks, to keep non-boat owners out of the marina. Check. Accomplished.

That’s a good start

And how does this affect the supply of boats, exactly.