2022 Tropical Development??

[AA3JY]

..and so it (possibly) begins..

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...opment/1183673

[GordMay]

2022 Hurricane Forecasts

These 2022 hurricane season forecasts provide a range of views and forecasts, for the 2022 hurricane season, from leading meteorologists.
The four forecast teams I have data on so far are: the Colorado State University tropical forecasting team (CSU) led by Phil Klotzbach and industry-backed; the also insurance and reinsurance industry supported Tropical Storm Risks (TSR); well-known weather forecaster Accuweather; and private forecast specialists WeatherBell.

The CSU forecast team calls for: 19 named storms; 9 hurricanes; 4 major hurricanes; ACE* of 160.
CSU [April 7] ➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
CSU will issue hurricane forecast updates on June 2, July 7 and Aug. 4, 2022.

The TSR forecast team calls for: 18 named storms; 8 hurricanes; 4 major hurricanes; ACE of 138.
TSR [April 6] ➥ https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

The Accuweather forecast calls for: 16 to 20 named storms; 6 to 8 hurricanes; and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
AccuWeather [March 30] ➥ https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...recast/1164507

The WeatherBell forecast calls for: 18 to 22 named storms; 6 to 10 hurricanes; 2 to 4 major hurricanes; ACE of 140 to 180.
WeatherBell [March 7] ➥ https://www.weatherbell.com/prelimin...eason-forecast

NOAA NHC Active Tropical Cyclones ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

With the mean of these 2022 hurricane season forecasts being 19 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, that is above both the near and long-term historical averages.

* ACE Index = Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index = Sum of the squares of 6-hourly maximum sustained wind speeds (in units of knots) for all systems while they are at least tropical storm strength. ACE unit = [10^4] x [knots^2].

In early April, experts indicated a weakening trend in the current La Niña, with a likelihood the globe would enter an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral state in the summer.
“Current weak La Niña conditions look fairly likely to transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall,” said state research scientists at Colorado State University.
However, La Niña isn't showing signs of slowing down, as anticipated. [1 & 2]

This may have major implications for the Atlantic seaboard, during the upcoming hurricane season, that was already forecast to be above-average.
The latest ENSO forecasts [1 & 2] suggest a 59% chance of La Niña being dominant through to August, and a 50% to 55% chance it remains right through to Autumn 2022.

Hurricane seasons are thought to be more active in a La Niña year, although how this affects steering of storms remains to be seen based on conditions at the time.
But with La Niña associated with a reduction in wind shear across areas close to the United States, it is thought hurricanes can make landfall more readily during a period of La Niña conditions
There’s also a tendency for more hurricanes in the Atlantic, as the vertical wind shear is lower, and the atmosphere is more unstable. In contrast, there are fewer hurricanes in the eastern Pacific, due to stronger wind shear.


[1] “EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ~ issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, 14 April 2022

... ““The change in the consensus forecast is slightly favouring the continuation of La Niña.
La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the Fall. This month, the forecaster consensus predicts Niño-3.4 index values to weaken into the summer but remain below the threshold of La Niña” ...

➥ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...Ocean%20%5BFig.

[2] “April 2022 La Niña update: measuring up” ~ by Emily Becker

... “La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific, with both the ocean and atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. The current forecast favors the continuation of La Niña through the summer (59% chance), with a slightly lower chance into the fall (50-55% chance). A third-year La Niña would be pretty unusual—we’ve only seen two others since 1950.” ...

➥ https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...date-measuring

[SailOar]

Bad news for the 2022 hurricane season: The Loop Current, a fueler of monster storms, is looking a lot like it did in 2005, the year of Katrina


The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1, and the Gulf of Mexico is already warmer than average. Even more worrying is a current of warm tropical water that is looping unusually far into the Gulf for this time of year, with the power to turn tropical storms into monster hurricanes.

It’s called the Loop Current, and it’s the 800-pound gorilla of Gulf hurricane risks.

When the Loop Current reaches this far north this early in the hurricane season – especially during what’s forecast to be a busy season – it can spell disaster for folks along the Northern Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida.

This year, the Loop Current looks remarkably similar to the way it did in 2005, the year Hurricane Katrina crossed the Loop Current before devastating New Orleans. Of the 27 named storms that year, seven became major hurricanes. Wilma and Rita also crossed the Loop Current that year and became two of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record.

[deblen]

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/active-2...orms-1.5916379

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by deblen

https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca/active-2...orms-1.5916379

Canadian Hurricane Centre presents the 2022 hurricane season outlook [May 24, 2022]
➥ https://www.canada.ca/en/environment...n-outlook.html

Zoom presentation ➥ https://www.facebook.com/Environment...50563611694194

[GordMay]

NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Ongoing La Niña, above-average Atlantic temperatures set the stage for busy season ahead
MUCH more from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
➥ https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/no...rricane-season

[AA3JY]

May possibly cross over to the Gulf and reform..

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

[GordMay]

Tropical Storm “Agatha” is quickly gaining strength, as it closes in on Mexico’s southern Oaxacan coast [Puerto Escondido and Salina Cruz]. Forecasters expect the storm to grow into a category two hurricane, before making landfall, early this week [Sunday nite - Monday morning, CDT - May 29/30].
On top of wind damage, the system’s prolific rainfall will lead to flash flooding, and landslides.
There’s a risk the storm could redevelop in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

More ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Agatha

[GordMay]

HURRICANE AGATHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 [0300 UTC MON. MAY 30 2022]
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/202...adv.009.shtml?
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...sages#contents

➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...051.shtml?cone

[AA3JY]

H/C Agatha to be renamed Alex if it reforms in the Gulf

[Don C L]

Originally Posted by AA3JY

H/C Agatha to be renamed Alex if it reforms in the Gulf

Yeah, I wonder how often this happens?
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...lantic/1194603

[AA3JY]

Keeping an eye on Invest 91L.

[sailorboy1]

Third depression this week to rally the fear around. Two from yesterday just disappeared to today. Interesting that yesterday Windy had it growing and NOAA didn't. Now Windy shows to be less and NOAA more. So........

BTW the early season forecast of "active" season sure was wrong.

[AA3JY]

H/C Earl now Cat. 4