AI could help to forecast extreme weather

[GordMay]

AI could help to forecast extreme weather

Two algorithms [1 & 2] have demonstrated the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) to make faster, and more accurate, weather forecasts.

Pangu-Weather [1], trained on 39 years of weather data, can retrospectively predict global temperature, pressure, and wind speed, a week in advance. It’s 10,000 times faster, and no less accurate, than making predictions on the basis of an understanding of physics.

NowcastNet [2] combines deep-learning methods, with physics equations, to give local predictions of heavy rain, up to three hours in advance. The meteorologists who tested NowcastNet judged it to be better, in most cases, than four leading ‘nowcasting’ systems.

AI could help make better weather prediction cheaper, and more widely available, and could one day attempt other complex predictions, such as the spread of wildfire smoke.
Human oversight will be key, note atmospheric scientists Imme Ebert-Uphoff and Kyle Hilburn, in the Nature News & Views article: the systems can struggle with extreme events, which are more likely to occur in a changing climate.

“The Outlook for AI Weather Prediction” ~ by Imme Ebert-Uphoff & Kyle Hilburn
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02084-9

“Why AI Could Save Us From the Next Deadly Hurricane” ~ by Tony Ho Tran
➥ https://www.thedailybeast.com/can-ai...nado-and-flood

[1] “Accurate medium-range global weather forecasting with 3D neural networks” ~ by Kaifeng Bi et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...ec6LjK3w3ug%3D

[2] “Skilful nowcasting of extreme precipitation with NowcastNet” ~ by Yuchen Zhang et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...yefWVlfj120%3D

[Jamme]

Very interesting, thanks Gord.