Bundaberg, AU during tropical season

[Alan Mighty]

And now an assessment that climate change is pushing the southern limit of tropical cyclogenesis even further south, by 111 kilometres every decade.

See: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/env...23-p4zt26.html

[StuM]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

And now an assessment that climate change is pushing the southern limit of tropical cyclogenesis even further south, by 111 kilometres every decade.

See: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/env...23-p4zt26.html

Why did they only start their analysis from 1980 when BOM have excellent records that go back to 1969-70?


I wonder if cyclones like Ada in 1970 would mess with the narrative?
And cyclogenesis tells us nothing about where they subsequently track.


Added to which, the 111km/decade is not related to the claimed cyclogenesis region.

From to the article: "The expansion of the tropics, as much as 111 kilometres a decade," So chalk another one up: Climate change is making the earth's axis tilt further

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

And now an assessment that climate change is pushing the southern limit of tropical cyclogenesis even further south, by 111 kilometres every decade.

See: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/env...23-p4zt26.html

Originally Posted by StuM

Why did they only start their analysis from 1980 when BOM have excellent records that go back to 1969-70?


I wonder if cyclones like Ada in 1970 would mess with the narrative?
And cyclogenesis tells us nothing about where they subsequently track.


Added to which, the 111km/decade is not related to the claimed cyclogenesis region.

From to the article: "The expansion of the tropics, as much as 111 kilometres a decade," So chalk another one up: Climate change is making the earth's axis tilt further

Ken Oath. Check this report out

This cyclone of monsoon origin tracked from the continent over Brisbane and down the NSW coast. The bar (at sea level) in Brisbane at 4pm Sunday 13th was 997.7 hPa. The brig Amy (220 tons) after leaving Woolongong at 9 am 14th was driven ashore near Bulli and the crew of 8 all drowned. Another man died on the beach from shock. The brigantine Malcolm foundered at Bulli and the crew of 6 hands were lost and 150 m of the Bellambi jetty was washed away. The ship Atocama was abandoned on the 12th 500 nm off the coast and the Captain and 3 of the crew were saved but 13 of the crew were lost at sea. The Schooner Mary Peverill was beached in the Whitsunday Passage though the crew survived. 2 men drowned at Bungendore (near Canberra) in floods on the 15th. In Sydney trees were uprooted, verandas were carried away and the ferries were suspended. The yacht Greyland was capsized in the harbour. There were 30 known deaths associated with this event.

This occurred in February, '98. 1898 to be exact.


Cyclones that have crossed into NSW

• TC Nancy in February 1990, crossed the NSW coast near Byron Bay as a category 2 cyclone before moving seawards once again. Five people drowned in northern NSW (and a sixth in Queensland) as a result of flooding.
• On 20 February 1954 TC137 crossed the coast near Tweed Heads as a severe tropical cyclone, then moved southwards inland from Ballina, Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie as a category 1 cyclone. Twenty six people died in NSW during this event.

[Alan Mighty]

The Fairfax Press journalist is responsible for melding ideas from a story on The Conversation by Steve Turton (see: https://theconversation.com/the-worl...-worried-77701) with conclusions from the peer-reviewed scientific paper by S. Sharmila and K. J. E. Walsh.

The Sharmila & Walsh paper is currently behind the Springer paywall. Only the abstract and the figures are publicly available (see: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0227-5).

I put my faith in peer-reviewed science. What you rely is up to you.

[Mr B]

A few piccys of the cyclone that hit Maryborough and Hervey Bay in 1973,
Bundaberg is 110 Kays to the north of Maryborough, So it would have got hit too as the cyclone came down from the north,
The building with the crane is Walkers ship yard, Where I worked,
It went under when the Mary River flooded,
The mangled trees are on the sea front at Hervey Bay,
The bridge is the Mary river that covered the bridge, On the Bruce Highway,
Closing the Highway,

[StuM]

Originally Posted by Mr B

A few piccys of the cyclone that hit Maryborough and Hervey Bay in 1973

Jan 1974?



Cyclone Wanda - the one that caused the second highest recorded flood in Brisbane history. (beaten only by the 1893 flood).


But of course, it's all got worse with climate change since 1980

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by StuM

Jan 1974?



Cyclone Wanda - the one that caused the second highest recorded flood in Brisbane history. (beaten only by the 1893 flood).


But of course, it's all got worse with climate change since 1980

Jan 1974, I was living and working in Mt Isa, It got flooded out as the Monsoon hit, 10 inches in 18 minutes,

1973, I was living in and working at Walkers shipyard in Maryborough,
And the Cyclone definately hit in 1973, I was in it,
I actually stood in the eye of the Cyclone as it passed over,
The woman next door lost her roof,

Its the same year, 1973, my second daughter was born in the Base hospital in Maryborough,
She will be very pleased to know she is a year younger that what she is,
Does that mean I will have to alter her Birth date, according to you. Hahaha

1972, I was living in the Grange in Brisbane, Windsor got flooded out as usual,
It got flooded out every year till they built the dam at wivanhoe,
My brother in laws, parents house was completely submerged in Yerongpilly,

The place I was working at in the lower part of Fortitude valley Went under as the king tide met the floodwaters,

Townsville also had a cyclone in 1972, I have piccys of that too, Or the remains of it,

The Qld coast is some 6000 miles long, approx, They have on average, 6 Cyclones a year, some where along its entire coast line,

Cheers, Brian,

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by Mr B

Jan 1974, I was living and working in Mt Isa, It got flooded out as the Monsoon hit, 10 inches in 18 minutes,

1973, I was living in and working at Walkers shipyard in Maryborough,
And the Cyclone definately hit in 1973, I was in it,
I actually stood in the eye of the Cyclone as it passed over,
The woman next door lost her roof,

Its the same year, 1973, my second daughter was born in the Base hospital in Maryborough,
She will be very pleased to know she is a year younger that what she is,
Does that mean I will have to alter her Birth date, according to you. Hahaha

1972, I was living in the Grange in Brisbane, Windsor got flooded out as usual,
It got flooded out every year till they built the dam at wivanhoe,
My brother in laws, parents house was completely submerged in Yerongpilly,

The place I was working at in the lower part of Fortitude valley Went under as the king tide met the floodwaters,

Townsville also had a cyclone in 1972, I have piccys of that too, Or the remains of it,

The Qld coast is some 6000 miles long, approx, They have on average, 6 Cyclones a year, some where along its entire coast line,

Cheers, Brian,

This was a time of high cyclonic activity in Australia. This site shows historical tracks for all cyclones. It's interesting viewing.

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

This was a time of high cyclonic activity in Australia. This site shows historical tracks for all cyclones. It's interesting viewing.

Thanks Reefmagnet. Most interesting.

And that database shows why academics limit their research to the years 1969ff.

Made me feel better about my berth in Moreton Bay. But as a kiddie in the 1950s, I remember a year when my parents contemplated putting ropes over the roof of the house they'd built on the shore of northern Moreton Bay to hold the roof down.

See: Tropical cyclones - Moreton Bay - 1969-2018

[StuM]

Originally Posted by Mr B

Jan 1974, I was living and working in Mt Isa, It got flooded out as the Monsoon hit, 10 inches in 18 minutes,

1973, I was living in and working at Walkers shipyard in Maryborough,
And the Cyclone definately hit in 1973, I was in it,

Interesting, BOM and Queensland Cyclones don't show a cyclone in '73, but I found two references


http://static.placestories.com/pool/...998/lo/doc.pdf
Tropical Cyclone and Flood Summary 1800-2006

"July 73
During the period 6th to 10th, heavy rain in south-east Queensland caused moderate to
major flooding to the coastal strip between Brisbane and Bundaberg.
Several lives were lost. Minor flooding occurred in the Brisbane City metropolitan creeks, in particular Enoggera-Breakfast creeks and Kedron Brook, and also in the Nerang River. Major flooding also occurred in the upper Brisbane River and Stanley River, but flooding was not significant in the lower reaches.
Vessel Cherry Venture driven ashore in hurricane force winds. 24 hour rainfall totals 378mm on Sunshine Coast. "


http://hardenup.org/umbraco/customContent/media/1153_EastCoastLows_1846-2009.pdf
Known Impacts of East Coast Lows, 1846 – 2009
By Mr Jeff Callaghan
Retired Senior Severe Weather Forecaster, Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane


5-8 Jul 1973


"Cyclone developed east of Mackay (5th) and moved down just seawards of the Sunshine Coast by 7th. It then moved back up north to the east of Yeppoon. Four people drowned on the evening of the 8th. Two near Nambour when the car went into a creek and two near Yandina after their car became stranded. Average winds of 40 to 55 knots were reported along the South Coast from 8 am 5th until 10pm 8th. A ship reported average winds of 60 knots off Stradbroke Island at 3pm 6th while another ship reported winds of 74 knots off the Gold Coast at 3pm 7th. Trees and power
line were borught down throughout southeast Qld causing widespread blackouts. Some houses were unroofed at Kingaroy and near Warwick. The South Nobby wave recording station on the Gold Coast reported significant wave heights to 5.2 metres and maximum wave heights to 8.7 metres.
The 1600 ton cargo ship Cherry Venturewas driven ashore 1.5 km south of Double Island Point on the afternoon of the 8th after foundering in “forty foot waves”.
Twenty four rainfall totals recorded 9am 8th included 384mm Nambour; 34
9mm Woodford; 340 Mapleton; 335mm Maleny and 328mm Springbrook(7th) . Many roads in southeast Qld were cut by floods and in Gympie 6 feet of water was over Mary St on the night of the 8th. The Mary R at Gympie peaked at 19.6 metres at 2am on the 9th with houses shops and factories under 2 m of water. "


Interesting to note this bit in light of the claim about cyclogenesis moving south:
Cyclone developed east of Mackay


Looks like it didn't quite make landfall so wasn't counted by BOM.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

And that database shows why academics limit their research to the years 1969ff.

or 1980 onwards if it suits the narrative better?

[Mr B]

Maybe the 30,000 odd people in Maryborough Imagined it,
Maybe Hervey Bay didnt get damaged,
But it did happen and it was a very bad cyclone,

[StuM]

Originally Posted by Mr B

Maybe the 30,000 odd people in Maryborough Imagined it,
Maybe Hervey Bay didnt get damaged,
But it did happen and it was a very bad cyclone,

It happened all right, but apparently the eye didn't quite make landfall so it didn't count for BOM purposes even though the destructive winds etc did hit those locations.

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by StuM

or 1980 onwards if it suits the narrative better?

Fair comment, StuM.

Here's a rhetoric question, to which I of course expect no answer, for the world: just how often have you read about or seen reference to the veil of dust that shrouded the northern hemisphere in the year 561 and following?

My family oral history, from northern Europe, has the story. Farming and harvests declined in 561 and for two or three years thereafter. Just not enough sunlight for photosynthesis, so no plant growth. The family recorded that light was only seen for three or four hours each day. Villages in what today we call Norway and Sweden were abandoned. Birth rates plummeted, not because of the long night, but because birth survival declined and there was no food (because of no plant growth, hence no harvest and nothing for cows, sheep etc to eat ... if you follow the story).

My family oral history reckons it was a meteor shower putting big mobs of dust in the atmosphere.

No one else talks about it. I admit, after years of searches in libraries and now on the internet, I have seen one author talk about the 'veil of dust' in 561 and it was that one source that gave an accurate date whereas the Michtig family history only records the story by reference to the name of the ancestors. My family history suggests the 3 dark years was a key event for the family to lose faith in religion, the promise that tomorrow would be a better day, and government. Just like the years of plague, war, pestilence and so on.

So whom do you believe? What do you believe?

Sciencing, the process of producing peer-reviewed science, is clearly a human process heavily influenced by funding, people's individual motives, social beliefs, and so on. So it is imperfect. As are all human activities, it seems.

My family, because of its oral history, reckons that peer-reviewed science is superior to religious dogma or the outpourings of hired scribblers (such as the Australia's Institute of Public Affairs) pursuing the agenda set by their funders (e.g. the coal miner Gina Rinehart) or religious nutters pushing their line (see the history of Galileo and the RC sect of Christianity) in the face of observed reality.

Your mileage may vary.

[StuM]

How sure are you about 561 from your oral history?


Quite a few mentions of the same in 536 probably from volcanic eruptions.



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/s...-10376245.html


or possibly a meteor:


Did an asteroid strike in Australia plunge Anglo-Saxon England into a mini ice-age? | Daily Mail Online