Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[MicHughV]

The thing is Intensity and Tracks change every year.. it just depends on the size of the butterfly in West Africa..

I've heard this before....but what about a fart ?? Plenty of those around, aimed in every which way direction, that must account for planet earth's weather system....hmmmm.....I think I'm onto something here...

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

The thing is Intensity and Tracks change every year.. it just depends on the size of the butterfly in West Africa..

I've heard this before....but what about a fart ?? Plenty of those around, aimed in every which way direction, that must account for planet earth's weather system....hmmmm.....I think I'm onto something here...

No.. that effects the Ozone layer.. hot air rises..

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

The thing is Intensity and Tracks change every year.. it just depends on the size of the butterfly in West Africa..

I've heard this before....but what about a fart ?? Plenty of those around, aimed in every which way direction, that must account for planet earth's weather system....hmmmm.....I think I'm onto something here...

I have a theory that all fossils, and geological features, are simply fakes, that were placed there, by God, to test our faith.

The bones of extinct animals, the remnants of vanished volcanoes, the tell-tale signs that our landscapes have been formed over millions of years by the actions of glaciers and rivers – all were created by Jehovah, purely in order to make our planet seem more ‘realistic’.

Just as a set-designer might position food and dishes, on a table on-stage, from a meal that never really took place, so as not to break the illusion of reality for theatre-goers, so God left the fossilized remains of animals, like woolly mammoths, that never really existed, lying buried within rock-strata and sediments. Such was the Deity’s commitment to verisimilitude, that he even went so far as to scatter the globe with fossilized dinosaur excrement!


I, also, think I'm onto something here ...

[carstendenmark]

Wow, GordMay, if you're still living on dirt, then get back to some water soon.
Your post #274 does worry me, thinking of you.

Could we get back to the topic of tropical cyclones ?
Their frequency and strength patterns seems to be totally unaffected by human activity, looking at the registered data in the last 100 years.

[SuW]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

If you're referring to your above diatribe, I would run with ad-hominem sprinkled with a hint of appeal to authority.

Bingo, sport. Now run off and do something useful, I got some paint to scrape.

[MicHughV]

I just finished reading Carl Sagan's book...A "Pale Blue Dot"...dat be planet earth for those who want to know...

He provides his thoughts on our solar system and man's exploration of our solar system to date.

I get a bit lost in his early "creation" theories as he acknowledges that no-one really knows for sure, given the millions or billions of years given to the age of our known universe, but provides his spin on the creation of planet earth in the perfect orbit around the sun.

He also expounds a bit on our known "universe, which is to say the least, quite immense. He mentions the "big bang" theory here and there, but can't explain the origins of the " big bang". With distances in the 100,000 lightyears away, who really knows.

He touches on the "creation" of planet earth and other planets in our solar system as he sees it. He is an astronomer by profession, so gives some lucid explanations as seen thru' the eyes of someone in his profession.

He posits that if a spacecraft were to fly by planet earth at a distance of 200 miles or so, it would not be possible to discern where planet earth has life by naked eye....ie neither man nor beast, nor man's habitat, etc. would be visible.

It's interesting to note, he writes, that planet earth has both polar caps and arid deserts at the same time, and he provides some explanation for this, also touching on the "moving" magnetic poles...he goes into quite great detail, the makeup of planet earth's life giving air.

He cannot provide a suitable explanation about "gravity", this "mystery" force that keeps us all "glued" to mother earth, even though science tells us the centrifugal force should spin us all into outer space...

When I was done reading, I came away with the thought, that no-one really knows for sure much of anything about planet earth and other planets in our solar system let alone the universe.

His explanations on the origins of mankind are pretty fanciful. Sagan was not an atheist nor agnostic, but tended to hedge his bets.

Which brings me to this topic "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity, ....."
It's my opinion that no-one really knows. Some might "think" they know, but at best it's their" guesstimate"....no better or worse than anyone else's.

The weather will be the weather will be the weather, it changes every day, every week, every month, that's about the only sure thing we know.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by GordMay

I have a theory that all fossils, and geological features, are simply fakes, that were placed there, by God, to test our faith.

The bones of extinct animals, the remnants of vanished volcanoes, the tell-tale signs that our landscapes have been formed over millions of years by the actions of glaciers and rivers – all were created by Jehovah, purely in order to make our planet seem more ‘realistic’.

Just as a set-designer might position food and dishes, on a table on-stage, from a meal that never really took place, so as not to break the illusion of reality for theatre-goers, so God left the fossilized remains of animals, like woolly mammoths, that never really existed, lying buried within rock-strata and sediments. Such was the Deity’s commitment to verisimilitude, that he even went so far as to scatter the globe with fossilized dinosaur excrement!


I, also, think I'm onto something here ...

Ach.. A Born Again Christian..

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by carstendenmark

...
Your post #274 does worry me, thinking of you ...

As well it should, were it not intended as a ridiculous parody.
I thought it would be obvious, but I guess I should have used an emoticon, of some kind.

[SuW]

Originally Posted by GordMay

As well it should, were it not intended as a ridiculous parody.
I thought it would be obvious, but I guess I should have used an emoticon, of some kind.

At the risk of once more bringing that commie-conspiracy propagandist website into the discussion, this is a perfect example of Poe's Law.

Although who is the joker, is impossible to say...

[SuW]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

I just finished reading Carl Sagan's book...A "Pale Blue Dot"...dat be planet earth for those who want to know...
He provides his thoughts on our solar system and man's exploration of our solar system to date.
When I was done reading, I came away with the thought, that no-one really knows for sure much of anything about planet earth and other planets in our solar system let alone the universe.
His explanations on the origins of mankind are pretty fanciful. Sagan was not an atheist nor agnostic, but tended to hedge his bets.
...
Which brings me to this topic "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity, ....."
It's my opinion that no-one really knows. Some might "think" they know, but at best it's their" guesstimate"....no better or worse than anyone else's.
The weather will be the weather will be the weather, it changes every day, every week, every month, that's about the only sure thing we know.

There are the late Mr. Rumsfeld's known knowns...the daily weather of the past couple of hundred years, average CO₂ measurements, methane being released from northerly peatlands, accelerating melting of glaciers and ice caps, and so on.

I agree, we don't know exactly where this is going, but, judging by the huge changes in the Arctic regions already apparent, unknown but predictable changes are already afoot.

And boatman61 perhaps inadvertently brought in chaos theory with his butterfly wings. That does predict that there could be instability leading to tipping points that cannot be reversed.

My reading of Mr. Sagan's perspective was that we are very small creatures and this is our only home, so we'd better not screw it up.

So far, it's been touch and go, avoiding nuclear war and ozone depletion and so on, but we've done it (for which I thank my parent's generation).

[MicHughV]

My reading of Mr. Sagan's perspective was that we are very small creatures and this is our only home, so we'd better not screw it up.

Yes, in the grand scheme of things....planet earth amounts to a grain of sand in all the world's beaches...and us, humanoid type creatures, that occupy this tiny grain of sand, are mere microbes at best, and that we actually think we might know a thing or two is ridiculous.

This planet, tiny as it might be, has plenty of space, food and water for everybody, with room to spare, yet we fight, kill and scramble to "own" a piece of it....or somebody else's piece of it......forgetting we arrive on this planet with nothing and we will leave this planet with nothing..

For the life of me, I can't see why the human population can't get along better with each other until I realize that for some people the center of the universe revolves around them, and only them....it's a really sad commentary on mankind.

[GordMay]

Chaos Theory, & the Butterfly Effect:


Edward Lorenz, a meteorology professor at MIT, entered some numbers into a computer program simulating weather patterns, and then left his office to get a cup of coffee while the machine ran. When he returned, he noticed a result that would change the course of science.

The computer model was based on 12 variables, representing things like temperature and wind speed, whose values could be depicted on graphs as lines rising and falling over time. On this day, Lorenz was repeating a simulation he’d run earlier—but he had rounded off one variable from .506127 to .506. To his surprise, that tiny alteration drastically transformed the whole pattern his program produced, over two months of simulated weather.

The unexpected result led Lorenz to a powerful insight about the way nature works: small changes can have large consequences. The idea came to be known as the “butterfly effect” after Lorenz suggested that the flap of a butterfly’s wings might ultimately cause a tornado.

In 1963, Lorenz condensed his findings into a paper, “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow” [1] which was cited exactly three times, by researchers outside meteorology, in the next decade. Yet his insight turned into the founding principle of chaos theory, which expanded rapidly during the 1970s and 1980s, into disciplines beyond meteorology and climate, from mathematics and geophysics, to economics, biology, and even philosophy.

Publications by Edward Norton Lorenz
➥ https://eapsweb.mit.edu/about/histor...cations/lorenz

Including:
[1] “Deterministic nonperiodic flow” ~ 1963
➥ https://eapsweb.mit.edu/sites/defaul...inistic_63.pdf

[Thumbs Up]

HAARP was active during the formation of the heat dome. (June 21-25, 2021)

!FDC 1/6011 ZAN AK..AIRSPACE GULKANA, AK..TEMPORARY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WI AN AREA DEFINED AS 2.5NM RADIUS OF 622333N1450902W
(GKN007016.6) SFC-FL250 FOR ELECTROMAGNETIC
RADIATION FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH. PURSUANT TO 14 CFR SECTION 91.137
(A)(1) TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE IN EFFECT. TRANSIT THRU
THE AIRSPACE MAY BE AUTH BY HAARP COMMAND CENTER, TEL 907-822-5497
OR FREQ 123.3. ANCHORAGE /ZAN/ ARTCC TEL 907-269-1103 IS THE FAA
CDN FACILITY. 2106210400-2106251730https://notams.aim.faa.gov/notamSear....html#/details

the HAARP station is the most powerful of three ionospheric research facilities on the planet. It uses hundreds of high frequency radio transmitters and antennas to probe the ionosphere, the layer of earth’s atmosphere that extends 50 to 600 miles above the surface.https://www.alaskapublic.org/2021/04...arch-at-haarp/

https://www.google.com/maps/place/62%C2%B023'30.0%22N+145%C2%B009'03.0%22W/@62.3921924,-145.1526442,1326m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d62.3916667!4 d-145.1508333

The enormous transmitter power, fully programmable antenna array, and agile frequency generation of the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) facility in Alaska have allowed the production of unprecedented disturbances in the ionosphere. Using both pencil beams and conical (or twisted) beam transmissions, artificial ionization clouds have been generated near the second, third, fourth, and sixth harmonics of the electron gyrofrequency. The conical beam has been used to sustain these clouds for up to 5 h as opposed to less than 30 min durations produced using pencil beams. The largest density plasma clouds have been produced at the highest harmonic transmissions. Satellite radio transmissions at 253 MHz from the National Research Laboratory TACSat4 communications experiment have been severely disturbed by propagating through artificial plasma regions. The scintillation levels for UHF waves passing through artificial ionization clouds from HAARP are typically 16 dB. This is much larger than previously reported scintillations at other HF facilities which have been limited to 3 dB or less. The goals of future HAARP experiments should be to build on these discoveries to sustain plasma densities larger than that of the background ionosphere for use as ionospheric reflectors of radio signals.https://www.science.gov/topicpages/h...spheric+heater

Military wants the weather on its side:

"The technology of artificial ionospheric heating could be as important for weather modification research as accelerators have been for particle physics,".......
.....After about 5 years of such research, and further development of weather codes, a pilot experiment to modify the steering winds of a mesocylone might be safely attempted. Such an experiment would probably require 50 to 100 megawattshttps://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna9880231

[MicHughV]

I was an avid Ham radio operator "back in the day"...it was always remarkable to me that I could "bounce" different radio waves of the ionosphere that could reach to the other side of the planet...now Ham operators are "bouncing" signals of the moon...

Interestingly, Sagan points out that space probes are "thrown" out to the far reaches of space, they are not "propelled" there, reaching astronomical speeds..over 400,000 miles per hour...pretty friggin' interesting to me...and nobody knows when or where their trip might end...

Even that speed is not sufficient to travel thru' space though.....it will require "warp speed".....as coined by movie business...whatever that might be....

Beam me up, Scotty.....

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by SuW

And boatman61 perhaps inadvertently brought in chaos theory with his butterfly wings. That does predict that there could be instability leading to tipping points that cannot be reversed.

Nothing I do is inadvertent..