Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[Montanan]

Climate, Not Conflict. Madagascar's Famine is the First in Modern History to be Solely Caused by Global Warming

https://www.yahoo.com/news/climate-n...171213691.html

The southern part of the island nation of Madagascar, off the east coast of Africa, is experiencing its worst drought in four decades, with the World Food Program (WFP) warning recently that 1.14 million people are food-insecure and 400,000 people are headed for famine. Hunger is already driving people to eat raw cactus, wild leaves and locusts, a food source of last resort. The WFP, which is on the ground helping with food distribution, describes scenes of unimaginable suffering, with families bartering everything they have—even cooking pots and spoons—for the paltry tomatoes, scrawny chickens and few bags of rice still available in the markets. “The next planting season is less than two months away and the forecast for food production is bleak,” writes WFP spokesperson Shelley Thakral in a dispatch from the most affected area. “The land is covered by sand; there is no water and little chance of rain.”

Also, FYI.

There is a massive shortage of good hay in the western United States due to the extreme drought. There going to be a lot of cattle and horses come on to the market and slaughtered because it is uneconomical to feed expensive hay to a cow.

[Reefmagnet]

^^ Well, at least "Unprecedented" wasn't used in the text for describing something that last occurred 40 years ago.

[carstendenmark]

Oh please, don't bring up Madagascar to say, that climate changes are the reason for their problems. Of greed and need, they have been chopping almost all of the rainforests and forests away. It's a desert now.
It wasn't a desert before they chopped the forests.

The reason that happened is simply overpopulation, like in many other african countries. Please see the attached graph, and this :
https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...car-population

More people, more food needed. Forests does not provide much food.
Chop the trees and make food. No trees, no rainforests, no humidity.

The reason : Bad planning (if any), too good medical care (nature takes it's tolls naturally), and no birth control at all.

The typhoons hitting Madagascar seems much worse, now that there are 5.5 times more people, all moving to cities near the sea.
The typhoon frequency hasn't changed a bit.

If you want to fuel up with biased information from the "new religion", look no more. Just head for Yahoo News.

They even states, that locusts are bad food !
In many countries they are a delicacy, and very nutritious too.
Just what a hungry population need.

But when you make crops, they are not welcome.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

^^ Well, at least "Unprecedented" wasn't used in the text for describing something that last occurred 40 years ago.

Only if a reader bothers to click(bait) to the body of the article itself. If left reading only the title (as I suspect many if not most Yahoo readers do), then Madagascar's famine is not just the worst in 40 years, but the First in Modern history that is Solely Caused By Global Warming.

Sounds rather "unprecedented" to me, and certainly therefore "alarming". Yet the "scientific" analysis supporting this bold conclusion comes down to this:

"Historically, famines resulted from crop failure, disaster or pest invasion; modern famines are largely considered to be man-made—sparked by conflict combined with natural disasters or incompetence and political interference. Madagascar is facing none of those, making it the first famine in modern history to be caused solely by climate change alone."

So now is the "science" saying that if there's no evidence of natural or (direct) man-made causes, then it must be global warming, i.e. climate change? CC by default perhaps? But notice how the anthropogenic component is left out -- by design? There's little scientific dispute, after all, that the planet is in one of its many warming cycles. Hopefully this quote from the director of a climate "advocacy" organization is not a credentialed climate scientist. Obviously qualified to provide Yahoo followers with what they want to read though.

[carstendenmark]

Spot on, Exile !

Your highlighted sentence shows that the author hasn't even looked up any facts of the development (or missing development) of Madagascar.

But the believers can't see it. It is now a religion.
"For those who want to believe, no proof is ever required." Thank you, Sherrilyn Kenyon.

Some authors to the new religion scripts always refer to those who is going strictly the scientific way as "skeptics".

Sorry guys, from here and below it's becoming technical, so if you just "believe", then just skip the rest.

No matter what, there might be something bigger going on than just CO2, as I mentioned before.

As we danes spawned Brahe, Ørsted and Bohr as great scientists, we now have Svensmark.

As a scientist, Henrik Svensmark, deeply involved in the physics of space radiation in a professional way at the Technical University of Denmark, he has a view of the global climate situation like this :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wU1qg8HceGI

Henrik Svensmark does not believe at all, he researches.
For a believer, he is just a skeptic, like Martin Luther.

Henrik may have found something important, but does not publish anything before well proven. Please note "well".

He states in a recent danish interview (if you understand that)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTm7otVhApw

that the DTU will issue a report, probably inside this year.
The report will most likely explain the correlation between cosmic radiation, the sun cycles (there are more than one), and the travel we all ride, the travelling of our solar system between the spiral arms of our galaxy, with huge variations in cosmic radiation from collapsing young giant stars, affecting the formation of aerosols here on Earth, that clouds are built from.

With no clouds, the Earth fries. With clouds, the Earth cools. Simple.
Carl Sagan could have explained that for you.

We heretics are waiting in anticipation for Henrik's report.

[StuM]

Cue the anti-Svensmark posts quoting Desmog, SS etc in 3,2.....

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by carstendenmark

...
With no clouds, the Earth fries. With clouds, the Earth cools. Simple.
Carl Sagan could have explained that for you.*
We heretics are waiting in anticipation for Henrik's report.

Henrik Svensmark Press Release: “Force Majeure: The Sun’s Role In Climate Change”
➥ https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uplo...olar2019-1.pdf

“Increased ionization supports growth of aerosols into cloud condensation nuclei” by H. Svensmark et al [2017]
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02082-2

Svensmark wrote an opinion piece [“Mens Solen sover”] in the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten. Watts Up With That offered a translation, including the following quote from Svensmark:
“In fact global warming has stopped and a cooling is beginning. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth – quite the contrary. And this means that the projections of future climate are unreliable.”
“Svensmark: "global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning" – "enjoy global warming while it lasts"
➥ https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/...hile-it-lasts/

More About:

* Interesting that you mention Carl Sagan.
“Cosmic ray theory of global warming” ~ by Tim Wallace, Cosmos magazine
➥ https://cosmosmagazine.com/climate/c...cold-response/

A Rebuttal to Henrik Svensmark Assertions:
➥ Henrik Svensmark — OSS Foundation

[GordMay]

It seems relevant to note, that Svensmark first began making his controversial claims, that cosmic rays would result in climate cooling, back in 1997 [nearly a quarter century ago] - and still, the earth continues to warm.
Maybe next year ...

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by GordMay

It seems relevant to note, that Svensmark first began making his controversial claims, that cosmic rays would result in climate cooling, back in 1997 [nearly a quarter century ago] - and still, the earth continues to warm.
Maybe next year ...

Perhaps the Earth is warming faster than it's cooling


Would explain record highs and record lows in the temperature records.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by StuM

Cue the anti-Svensmark posts quoting Desmog, SS etc in 3,2.....

Although some may find DeSmog’s position[s] on Science Denial discomfitting, they do provide direct links to PRIMARY sources, from BOTH sides of the issues they cover.

Ie:
Henrik Svensmark ➥ https://www.desmog.com/henrik-svensmark/

DeSmog News ➥ https://www.desmog.com/

[GordMay]

Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico has increased during the past 20 years. Storm intensity, a measure of strength, duration, and frequency, is closely related to variations in sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic, and has risen noticeably during that time. However, changes in observation methods over time make it difficult to know, for sure, whether a longer-term increase in storm activity has occurred. Records collected since the late 1800s suggest that the actual number of hurricanes per year has not increased.

Climate Change Indicators: Weather and Climate ~ US EPA [May 12, 2021]
➥ https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-clima

[StuM]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Tropical storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico has increased during the past 20 years. Storm intensity, a measure of strength, duration, and frequency, is closely related to variations in sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic, and has risen noticeably during that time. However, changes in observation methods over time make it difficult to know, for sure, whether a longer-term increase in storm activity has occurred. Records collected since the late 1800s suggest that the actual number of hurricanes per year has not increased.

Climate Change Indicators: Weather and Climate ~ US EPA [May 12, 2021]
➥ https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-clima

Presuably, the last sentence is referencing this:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5

"We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s."

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by StuM

Presuably, the last sentence is referencing this:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5

"We find that recorded century-scale increases in Atlantic hurricane and major hurricane frequency, and associated decrease in USA hurricanes strike fraction, are consistent with changes in observing practices and not likely a true climate trend. After homogenization, increases in basin-wide hurricane and major hurricane activity since the 1970s are not part of a century-scale increase, but a recovery from a deep minimum in the 1960s–1980s."

Indeed.
The authors also note:
“Does this work provide evidence against the hypothesis that greenhouse-gas-induced warming may lead to an intensification of North Atlantic HUs? Not necessarily.”

[Exile]

Doesn't look like the actual science is providing much help for the alarmists when it comes to tropical storms, but that won't stop much of the mainstream media and politicians from blaming CC when the next one hits. In the meantime, there's always melting ice:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/29/us/gr...nge/index.html

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

Perhaps the Earth is warming faster than it's cooling


Would explain record highs and record lows in the temperature records.

Not in Australia mate, for the hot ones anyway.

They've "homogenized" all the historical records down twice and that's the reason we are seeing so many hot day, week, month etc records broken.

Apparently those old timer could not read a thermometer properly or were silly enough to have hung the thermometer in the sun and it's given false high readings.

All fixed now though, thoroughly "homogenized" (well until they need another run of record highs for some reason)