Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[boatman61]

Well.. here in Portugal by now we're normally in the high 30's, low 40's instead we're enjoying an English Summer.. Temps in the 20's, rain tomorrow and Monday forecast and just one wildfire to date down South, likely manmade.

[GordMay]

“No more cone? Psychology researchers offer better tool for visualizing hurricane danger” ~ by Anne Manning

“When a hurricane threatens to make landfall, forecasters offer a barrage of informational tools to communicate the risk of it coming through coastal and inland communities, so residents can prepare for its impact. Chief among these tools is the “cone of uncertainty” – a visual depiction of the storm’s potential path.

But is the cone doing its job? Studies show that people often misinterpret this popular weather graphic. They don’t understand the information it’s conveying: the likely path of a storm, and its likelihood to deviate from that path based on historical data. The graphic is cone-shaped because the farther we try to look into the future, the more uncertain the forecast. But because the cone draws a line around a specific area, many people assume that locations outside the cone will not be affected by the storm.

Researchers in Colorado State University’s Department of Psychology are working on an easily understood, science-backed way to visually represent hurricane danger to the general public. They contend that the cone of uncertainty creates a false sense of security for people who live outside the boundary of the cone and that there are better ways to signal likely impacts...

... Their results are detailed in Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied [1]...”

More about ➥ https://natsci.source.colostate.edu/...ricane-danger/

[1] “Dynamic ensemble visualizations to support understanding for uncertain trajectories” ~ by Witt, J. K., & Clegg, B. A.
➥ https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?d...7%2Fxap0000370

[Reefmagnet]

The cone has become a lot more accurate in the past two decades or so. Even so, it's position constantly shifts with each update. Where I am, the cone (track) just about always invariably shifts further south with each update.

[hpeer]

This argument strikes me as an argument over nothing.

Some folks think Earth is warming and this is creating a food shortage.

Some folks think Earth is over populated creating a food shortage.

The warming folks generally understand (or should understand) that warming is related to population. If you greatly reduced population you would also reduce pollution and warming.

That would bring the over population and warming folks into agreement on a central issue.

Earth, humanities only island nation, would be a lot healthier if there were significantly fewer people.

There! Now you have a common goal, to humanely reduce population. Quit bickering and get to it.

Sheesh!!!

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by hpeer

... The warming folks generally understand (or should understand) that warming is related to population. If you greatly reduced population you would also reduce pollution and warming...
... There! Now you have a common goal, to humanely reduce population. Quit bickering and get to it ...

I think hpeer is on to something!
ie: Euthanize all the sick people, and illness will disappear.
A final solution.

[wolfgal]

not sure where to pose this question (please forgive me Gord, for stretching your thread), but since the over-population theme has re-surfaced here..., here goes:


other than his obvious interest in getting people to willingly populate mars (and thus, propensity to revert to scare tactics), has anyone found/learned anything that would explain the specific reasoning behind elon musks' statement:

"Population collapse is a much bigger problem than people realize and that’s just for Earth."


before answering off the cuff, please consider how this guy is rich enough to employ the best of the best who themselves work with top-level AI. yes, we must assume the likelihood that he could know something that the rest of us just don't.

for me, whether this post is a can-of-worms or food-for-thought, the statement he makes concerns us.


wolfie

[GordMay]

Elon Musk also tweeted, "Aliens built the pyramids obv", so you can't always take him literally [or seriously].

[wolfgal]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Elon Musk also tweeted, "Aliens built the pyramids obv", so you can't always take him literally [or seriously].

did he really?

that bumps my post to the joke thread

thanks Gord!

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

did he really?

July 31 ➥ https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/...769345?lang=en

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

not sure where to pose this question (please forgive me Gord, for stretching your thread), but since the over-population theme has re-surfaced here..., here goes:


other than his obvious interest in getting people to willingly populate mars (and thus, propensity to revert to scare tactics), has anyone found/learned anything that would explain the specific reasoning behind elon musks' statement:

"Population collapse is a much bigger problem than people realize and that’s just for Earth."


before answering off the cuff, please consider how this guy is rich enough to employ the best of the best who themselves work with top-level AI. yes, we must assume the likelihood that he could know something that the rest of us just don't.

for me, whether this post is a can-of-worms or food-for-thought, the statement he makes concerns us.


wolfie

Seeing as the world population has increased by over 6 billion in the last 100 years I fail to see where the concern about collapse is coming from..
Are you sure he's not referring to his customer base..

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

did he really?

that bumps my post to the joke thread

thanks Gord!

Well perhaps he might be right, or at least not believing that ancient Egyptians built the Pyramids. Personally I think someone else did and a lot further back in time. Having seen the weathering marks on the Sphinx, one does wonder how they got there in an arid country.

There is also the small matter of core drill marks, perfectly machined vases in granite on display in the Cairo museum and tube cutting marks in many of the granite stones. Made with an ancient Egyptian copper chisel, I don't think so. Oh and mummies embalmed with cocaine, that isn't a native plant to Europe or Africa.

To quote Donald Rumsfeld, "I don't think we know what we don't know".

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Pete7

... Oh and mummies embalmed with cocaine, that isn't a native plant to Europe or Africa.
To quote Donald Rumsfeld, "I don't think we know what we don't know".

In 1976, Dr. Michelle Lescott, from the Museum of Natural History in Paris, received a sample from the mummified remains of Egyptian Pharaoh Ramses the Great to study. Using an electron microscope, she discovered grains of tobacco clinging to the fibers of his bandages.

This initial discovery was berated by the authorities, and her senior colleagues insisted that she had simply observed “contamination from modern sources”, maybe from some old archaeologist smoking a pipe in the vicinity, or perhaps she had found the traces of a workman’s sneeze? Tobacco first came to Europe from South America during the time of Columbus, 2700 years later, ruling out the possibility of tobacco being present during the reign of Ramses circa 1213 BC.

Some years later, Dr. Svelta Balabanova, a forensic toxologist at the Institute of Forensic Medicine at ULM, followed up on Dr. Lescott’s findings with yet more intriguing evidence. In order to eliminate the possibility of contemporary contamination, Dr. Balabanova obtained samples of intestinal tissue from deep inside Ramses, rather than the external layers of skin and cloth, and much to her amazement she discovered traces of cannabis, coca and tobacco laid down in his body cells ‘like rings on a tree’.

A decade later, in 1992, seven ancient Egyptian mummies were flown from the Cairo Museum to Munich for further analysis.
Dr. Balabanova conducted a series of gas chromatography tests on samples of the seven mummies, one of which was the mummified remains of Henut Taui, 'the lady of the two lands', a priestess who lived sometime during the reign of the 21st Dynasty of ancient Egypt, around 1000 BC. Each individual revealed the presence of nicotine and cocaine, and both the mummies and the results were deemed entirely credible.

Here’s an interesting discussion, from both sides of the question:
“American Drugs in Egyptian Mummies” ~ by S. A. Wells
➥ American Drugs in Egyptian Mummies

[boatman61]

There are those who feel/believe that Mankind has gone through several periods of 'advanced civilization' before nearly wiping itself out and having to claw its way back from the caves it fled to..
Ancient First Nation legends of the people living below the ground while fires raged above, ancient tales of the Sumerians and chariots of fire that flew through the air, the ancient gold toy replica aircraft of Peru..
Mans knowledge is only surpassed by his ignorance..

https://www.infinityexplorers.com/an...ancient-aliens

https://www.ancient-code.com/ancient...ke-gods-exist/

[SuW]

Originally Posted by Pete7

Well perhaps he might be right, or at least not believing that ancient Egyptians built the Pyramids. Personally I think someone else did and a lot further back in time. Having seen the weathering marks on the Sphinx, one does wonder how they got there in an arid country.

There is also the small matter of core drill marks, perfectly machined vases in granite on display in the Cairo museum and tube cutting marks in many of the granite stones. Made with an ancient Egyptian copper chisel, I don't think so. Oh and mummies embalmed with cocaine, that isn't a native plant to Europe or Africa.

To quote Donald Rumsfeld, "I don't think we know what we don't know".

I know, you are Erich von Däniken and I claim my £5!

Arid country, yeah. Those "weathering marks" on the Sphinx are obviously made by wind-driven sand. The beast is made of limestone, a relatively soft sedimentary rock, easy to make monuments but it get blasted out more quickly by wind.

Now, discuss how the Egyptians made obelisks from granite.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by boatman61

There are those who feel/believe that Mankind has gone through several periods of 'advanced civilization' before nearly wiping itself out and having to claw its way back from the caves it fled to..
Mans knowledge is only surpassed by his ignorance..

Maybe, in some cases, more than others.