Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

And as for the weather events being more extreme, a rain lasting 40 days and 40 nights would not objectively be considered mild??

Seems the Bible had an obsession with 40 days and nights, Moses, the flood, Jesus, spies.. 40 years is the other one..

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Seems the Bible had an obsession with 40 ...

Indeed.
The number 40 is found in many traditions, without any universal explanation for its use.
In Jewish, Christian, Islamic, and other Middle Eastern traditions, it is taken to represent a large, approximate number, similar to "umpteen".
Negative forty is also the unique temperature, at which the Fahrenheit and Celsius scales correspond; that is, −40 °F = −40 °C.


After a sheepdog chased all the sheep into the pen, he told the farmer “All 40 accounted for.”
"But I only have 36 sheep,” the farmer replied.
"I know,” said the sheepdog. “But I rounded them up.”

[boatman61]

Well Judaism, Christianity and Islam all have a mutual root so understandable..
https://www.aish.com/atr/The_Number_...ritual%20state.
But is unique to that tree..
As for what has been attributed/claimed as evidence of cocaine in the mummies is more likely from the ancient use of Khat which is also an amphetamine.

[GordMay]

“Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones” ~ by Thomas R. Knutson et al [March 26, 2021]
➥ https://sciencebrief.org/uploads/rev...ES_Mar2021.pdf

“Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades” ~ by James P. Kossin et al [June 2, 2020]
➥ https://www.pnas.org/content/117/22/11975
➥ https://www.pnas.org/content/117/47/29990

[Exile]

Originally Posted by GordMay

“Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones” ~ by Thomas R. Knutson et al [March 26, 2021]
➥ https://sciencebrief.org/uploads/rev...ES_Mar2021.pdf

“Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades” ~ by James P. Kossin et al [June 2, 2020]
➥ https://www.pnas.org/content/117/22/11975
➥ https://www.pnas.org/content/117/47/29990

So why is it that advocates that blame CC for all sorts of natural events resent why it continues to be so hotly debated? What part of the "science" are those who have doubts "denying" exactly?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Exile

... What part of the "science" are those who have doubts "denying" exactly?

The vast preponderance of scientific evidence [& expert opinion], regarding the basics of anthropogenic climate change; but which isn't at all settled, when it comes to Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track,

[Exile]

Originally Posted by GordMay

The vast preponderance of scientific evidence [& expert opinion], regarding the basics of anthropogenic climate change; but which isn't at all settled, when it comes to Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track,

The "basics" of AGW -- which I at least interpret to mean that it exists and is having "some" influence on the climate -- enjoys more than just a "preponderance" of scientific evidence. Might be fairer to say near unanimity, certainly among climate scientists and probably close to that in related science disciplines. It's the "some" question, i.e. "how much," when compared to the impact of natural forces where this strong consensus breaks down. But these critical distinctions are more often than not conflated, to the point where even Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track (and a host of other natural events) are blamed on AGW by politicians and the popular press. What do you think happens to the overall credibility of AGW when people learn that the more sensational events such as cyclones & forest fires may have little or nothing to do with AGW after all? Or at least not enough for the science to be able to offer any level of certainty?

It's always the credibility of the advocates for change which overcomes doubts and gaps in public certainty, and the chasm between the headlines and the actual science like we're learning about here can only hurt that credibility. I'm disinclined to blame the scientists themselves, and blame instead those who have been seeking to politicize the science for often self-centered personal and political goals.

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by SuW

So, Pete7, do you still not know what we know? 3 false claims debunked (to my satisfaction).

Another interesting modern misconception is that people of the past were as stupid as we are.

No

They have built a new Cairo Museum to house all the exhibits since I was there, but there is some impressive work making huge granite boxes perfectly oblong and polished like todays marble. Strange that there are no tools found explaining how they made all these items.

Anyway back to changes in weather, its been really wet here for two weeks so must be changing weather.

Pete

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Seems the Bible had an obsession with 40 days and nights, Moses, the flood, Jesus, spies.. 40 years is the other one..

Unless you live in Ireland or the British Islands 40 days and nights of rain is a handy figure to use to identify an unusual and extreme weather event??

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by Pete7

No

They have built a new Cairo Museum to house all the exhibits since I was there, but there is some impressive work making huge granite boxes perfectly oblong and polished like todays marble. Strange that there are no tools found explaining how they made all these items.

Anyway back to changes in weather, its been really wet here for two weeks so must be changing weather.

Pete

If you are referring to the ones they used to entomb the sacred bulls I think they may have been basalt.

Two of the most impressive pieces of stonework I saw in Egypt were two reclining figures in a small mud hut village up the Nile from Cairo. They were carved from single pieces of basalt and from memory were about 30' long.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

Unless you live in Ireland or the British Islands 40 days and nights of rain is a handy figure to use to identify an unusual and extreme weather event??

I know you guys have had some floods but 40 days and nights of rain.???
Maximum I know off is around 11 days continuous in the Northern Territory.
But.. I could be wrong..

[Montanan]

Human-driven planetary warming threatens to collapse a system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean that regulate and impact weather across the globe, a new scientific study has found.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, a section of the Gulf Stream, transports warm water from the tropics northward and cold water from the North Atlantic to the south.

. . .

A crippled Atlantic current system could trigger catastrophic, potentially irreversible changes, from rising seas in North America to major disruptions to seasonal monsoon rains in Asia and South America.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/climate-c...220313885.html

[Don C L]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Human-driven planetary warming threatens to collapse a system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean that regulate and impact weather across the globe, a new scientific study has found.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, a section of the Gulf Stream, transports warm water from the tropics northward and cold water from the North Atlantic to the south.

. . .

A crippled Atlantic current system could trigger catastrophic, potentially irreversible changes, from rising seas in North America to major disruptions to seasonal monsoon rains in Asia and South America.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/climate-c...220313885.html

Yes. This has been a concern for some years, but it's (usually) a slow process. What is concerning recently is the amount of water rapidly melting from the Greenland ice sheet, which being fresh, will slow or stop the sinking of the surface water (by making it less salty and hence less dense) which drives the current from the north to the south. A change in this current will have effects for hundreds of years. These two also make interesting reading:
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/20...limate-change/

https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliograp...les/td0802.pdf

[GordMay]

Excerpted from IPCC AR6 WGI - Summary for Policymakers
➥ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/d...R6_WGI_SPM.pdf

The Current State of the Climate

...
A.3.4 It is likely that the global proportion of major (Category 3–5) tropical cyclone occurrence has increased over the last four decades, and the latitude where tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific reach their peak intensity has shifted northward; these changes cannot be explained by internal variability alone (medium confidence).

There is low confidence in long-term (multi-decadal to centennial) trends in the frequency of all-category tropical cyclones.


Event attribution studies and physical understanding indicate that human-induced climate change increases heavy precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (high confidence) but data limitations inhibit clear detection of past trends on the global scale.

{8.2, 11.7, Box TS.10} ...

Emphasis mine.

It’s warming. It’s us. We’re sure. It’s bad. But we can fix it.

[EngineerRetired]

Does having three (yes 3) 100 year floods in the last 9 years count? How about an 11" inch rain in 12 hours, unheard of in my part of the mid-west? Maybe the 1 1/2" thick ice storm that took out electrical power for 9 days, an ice storm the likes of which no one living has seen here before.


Yep, any one of those *could* and probably has happened at some time in the past. But,,, they have all happened this past decade. You know, the frequency and severity thing...


Open minded and thinking folks, especially the "old timers", know its gotten bad and we have to correct it. Sort of like the 98% of all scientists saying so...


The only real remaining question is when do we grab a stick (carbon tax) and whup on the deniers...