Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by EngineerRetired

Does having three (yes 3) 100 year floods in the last 9 years count? How about an 11" inch rain in 12 hours, unheard of in my part of the mid-west? Maybe the 1 1/2" thick ice storm that took out electrical power for 9 days, an ice storm the likes of which no one living has seen here before...

Excerpted from IPCC AR6 WGI - Summary for Policymakers
➥ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/d...R6_WGI_SPM.pdf

The Current State of the Climate

...
A.1.4 Globally averaged precipitation over land has likely increased since 1950, with a faster rate of increase since the 1980s (medium confidence). It is likely that human influence contributed to the pattern of observed precipitation changes since the mid-20th century, and extremely likely that human influence contributed to the pattern of observed changes in near-surface ocean salinity. Mid-latitude storm tracks have likely shifted poleward in both hemispheres since the 1980s, with marked seasonality in trends (medium
confidence). For the Southern Hemisphere, human influence very likely contributed to the poleward shift of the closely related extratropical jet in austral summer.
{2.3, 3.3, 8.3, 9.2, TS.2.3, TS.2.4, Box TS.6} ...
A.3.2 The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have increased since the 1950s over most land area for which observational data are sufficient for trend analysis (high confidence), and human-induced climate change is likely the main driver. Human-induced climate change has contributed to increases in agricultural and ecological droughts15 in some regions due to increased land evapotranspiration16 (medium
confidence).
{8.2, 8.3, 11.4, 11.6, 11.9, TS.2.6, Box TS.10} (Figure SPM.3)
...

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by EngineerRetired

Does having three (yes 3) 100 year floods in the last 9 years count? How about an 11" inch rain in 12 hours, unheard of in my part of the mid-west? Maybe the 1 1/2" thick ice storm that took out electrical power for 9 days, an ice storm the likes of which no one living has seen here before...

Indeed.

Excerpted from IPCC AR6 WGI - Summary for Policymakers
The Current State of the Climate

...
A.1.4 Globally averaged precipitation over land has likely increased since 1950, with a faster rate of increase since the 1980s (medium confidence). It is likely that human influence contributed to the pattern of observed precipitation changes since the mid-20th century, and extremely likely that human influence contributed to the pattern of observed changes in near-surface ocean salinity. Mid-latitude storm tracks have likely shifted poleward in both hemispheres since the 1980s, with marked seasonality in trends (medium
confidence). For the Southern Hemisphere, human influence very likely contributed to the poleward shift of the closely related extratropical jet in austral summer.
{2.3, 3.3, 8.3, 9.2, TS.2.3, TS.2.4, Box TS.6} ...
A.3.2 The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events have increased since the 1950s over most land area for which observational data are sufficient for trend analysis (high confidence), and human-induced climate change is likely the main driver. Human-induced climate change has contributed to increases in agricultural and ecological droughts15 in some regions due to increased land evapotranspiration16 (medium
confidence).
{8.2, 8.3, 11.4, 11.6, 11.9, TS.2.6, Box TS.10} (Figure SPM.3)
...

[GordMay]

Ocean acidification, and ocean deoxygenation will continue to worsen, and are probably irreversible, on timescales of centuries to millennium.
This won't help coral reefs recover.

[SuW]

Originally Posted by EngineerRetired

Does having three (yes 3) 100 year floods in the last 9 years count? How about an 11" inch rain in 12 hours, unheard of in my part of the mid-west? Maybe the 1 1/2" thick ice storm that took out electrical power for 9 days, an ice storm the likes of which no one living has seen here before.
Yep, any one of those *could* and probably has happened at some time in the past. But,,, they have all happened this past decade. You know, the frequency and severity thing...
Open minded and thinking folks, especially the "old timers", know its gotten bad and we have to correct it. Sort of like the 98% of all scientists saying so...
The only real remaining question is when do we grab a stick (carbon tax) and whup on the deniers...

I think it's the last of a few barricades that the deniers have at their disposal.

Already down (with many other variations):
It's not happening!
It's happening but it's not serious!
It's happening but it's not our fault!
It's happening and it's our fault but it's not serious!
It's happening and it's our fault but we can't do anything about it!

Coming soon:
It's happening and it's our fault but we can't do anything about it, but it'll all be good!

I feel a contribution from Capitalism coming - something about investment in climate modification...

[SuW]

Originally Posted by EngineerRetired

...
The only real remaining question is when do we grab a stick (carbon tax) and whup on the deniers...

Carbon taxes may have changed some people's behaviour if they were universally adopted many years ago. The opportunity for mandatory fuel efficiencies in transport was frittered away.

Now, it's apparently a sign of defiant Darwinian fitness to blow the most dough (and energy) on stuff.

According to the Economist, the rate of use of fossil fuels is still increasing (the pandemic caused a small decline). Prices are up, including for coal (mostly used for electricity generation).

I think we're in for very difficult times.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by SuW

Carbon taxes may have changed some people's behaviour if they were universally adopted many years ago. The opportunity for mandatory fuel efficiencies in transport was frittered away.

Now, it's apparently a sign of defiant Darwinian fitness to blow the most dough (and energy) on stuff.

According to the Economist, the rate of use of fossil fuels is still increasing (the pandemic caused a small decline). Prices are up, including for coal (mostly used for electricity generation).

I think we're in for very difficult times.

Well everyone followed the diesel propaganda a coupla decades back so who knows what con will come next and who the new fall guys will be for the next bandwagon..
Us smokers were blamed for lots of things from secondary cancers, asthma in the young etc.. yet while smoking rates have plunged, cancers are increasing along with asthma sufferers.
As for the 'acclaimed' CFC victory.. what victory, manufacturers just changed propellants and lost nothing, try that with the Plastics Industry.
Something to sell, a good promo will always find buyers..

[laird]

I do !love reading these threads ,they give me a deal chuckle at times

Climate change has been on going for eons , 8500 years ago there was no North sea ,it was a piece of land called Dogger ,not to be confused with dogging great Britain was joined to the European continent , and lots of humans lived on dogger until a tsunami and rising sea levels put an end to that


When the polar I've caps finally melt ,what happens after that ?

[SuW]

Originally Posted by laird

I do !love reading these threads ,they give me a deal chuckle at times
Climate change has been on going for eons , 8500 years ago there was no North sea ,it was a piece of land called Dogger ,not to be confused with dogging great Britain was joined to the European continent , and lots of humans lived on dogger until a tsunami and rising sea levels put an end to that
When the polar I've caps finally melt ,what happens after that ?

The water will not rise to where I live - I'm 87m above sea level. I hope everyone else has their hip waders ordered from China!

[SuW]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Us smokers were blamed for lots of things from secondary cancers, asthma in the young etc.. yet while smoking rates have plunged, cancers are increasing along with asthma sufferers.

My father chain smoked in the house all the time. My mother (never smoked) has COPD and asthma. My sister had chronic asthma and bronchitis as a child, and I have to use inhalers every day (mild asthma).

Anecdotal, but you can stick it in your pipe and smoke it, Comic Boy.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by laird

I do !love reading these threads ...
... When the polar I've caps finally melt ,what happens after that ?

I also enjoy these discussions, of the most important issue[s], of the millennium.

If all the ice covering Antarctica , Greenland, and in mountain glaciers around the world were to melt, sea level would rise about 70 meters (230 feet). The ocean would cover all the coastal cities. And land area would shrink significantly.
If the meltwater remains close to its source (by being trapped in a glacier lake, for example), then there is no net movement of mass, away from the glacier or ice sheet, and the Earth’s rotation won’t change.
But, if the meltwater flows into the oceans, and is dispersed, then there is a net movement of mass, and the Earth’s rotation will change. The Earth would rotate more slowly, with the length of the day becoming milliseconds longer than it is today.

Melting sea ice, such as the Arctic ice cap, does not change sea level, because the ice displaces its volume, and, hence, also does not change the Earth’s rotation.

It’s warming. It’s us. We’re sure. It’s bad. But we can fix [much/most of] it.

[Montanan]

Meanwhile, . . .

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by SuW

My father chain smoked in the house all the time. My mother (never smoked) has COPD and asthma. My sister had chronic asthma and bronchitis as a child, and I have to use inhalers every day (mild asthma).

Anecdotal, but you can stick it in your pipe and smoke it, Comic Boy.

But.. did he die of cancer..
I don't suppose you ever considered other possible causes with a handy fall guy in the house.

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by GordMay

I also enjoy these discussions, of the most important issue[s], of the millennium.

If all the ice covering Antarctica , Greenland, and in mountain glaciers around the world were to melt, sea level would rise about 70 meters (230 feet). The ocean would cover all the coastal cities. And land area would shrink significantly.
If the meltwater remains close to its source (by being trapped in a glacier lake, for example), then there is no net movement of mass, away from the glacier or ice sheet, and the Earth’s rotation won’t change.
But, if the meltwater flows into the oceans, and is dispersed, then there is a net movement of mass, and the Earth’s rotation will change. The Earth would rotate more slowly, with the length of the day becoming milliseconds longer than it is today.

Melting sea ice, such as the Arctic ice cap, does not change sea level, because the ice displaces its volume, and, hence, also does not change the Earth’s rotation.

It’s warming. It’s us. We’re sure. It’s bad. But we can fix [much/most of] it.

Gord, you're starting to sound like you've taken the blue pill. It would take many thousands of years before all "all the ice melted" in worst case scenario. To panic about that now is eqivalent to having the ancient Egyptians panic about the current "climate crisis". And regardless of melting ice, the Earths rotation will still slow regardless as it dances with the receding moon. A quick Google says the current rate is 1.8 mS per century.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

Gord, you're starting to sound like you've taken the blue pill. It would take many thousands of years before all "all the ice melted" ...

Indeed.
I was just [partially] answering laird's hypothetical question about: "When the polar I've caps finally melt ,what happens after that ?"
The proposition was his.

[Don C L]

Modern windvanes use a small input in the wind direction change on a small paddle to change the angle on a blade in the water to then enable the exertion of a much greater force against the tiller, right? In a similar way, it doesn't necessarily take much change in input to set big changes in motion in our atmosphere. The recent extreme events and the link to changes in albedo and then the resultant change in jet stream flow, and the stalled high pressure domes, should help demonstrate that. You don't have to melt all the ice to make big changes. I think sea level rise will not be the worst of our worries.