Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[BelizeRumRunner]

Sounds like bs to me. I am an oceanographic scientist. Not a single climate model can be backtracked with actual data and validate its accuracy. As Samuel Clemens put it...there are liars, damned liars and statistics.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by BelizeRumRunner

Sounds like bs to me. I am an oceanographic scientist. Not a single climate model can be backtracked with actual data and validate its accuracy. As Samuel Clemens put it...there are liars, damned liars and statistics.

I'm not certain exactly what you are criticizing [1 or 2, or other] - could you elaborate?

1. Hind-casting climate models:
Once a climate model is set up, it can be tested, via a process known as “hind-casting.” This process runs the model from the present time, backwards into the past.

The model results are then compared with observed climate and weather conditions, to see how well they match. This testing allows scientists to check the accuracy of the models and, if needed, revise its equations. Science teams around the world test and compare their model outputs, to observations, and results from other models.

Climate Model Hindcasting ➥ https://applets.kcvs.ca/ClimateModelHindcasting/
According to the Hausfather research , almost every peer-reviewed climate model [10 to 14 of 17 total], of human-caused global temperature rise, dating back to 1970, lines up with the warming we see today.

“Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections” by Zeke Hausfather et al
➥ https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2019GL085378



2. Paleoclimate Proxies:
Scientists use proxies to weave a fairly complete understanding of Earth’s past [paleoclimate].
These proxies include fossil trees [rings], fossil shells, ice cores, teeth of conodonts [extinct, eel-like creatures, which go back 520 million years], Foraminifera (known as “forams”), and diatoms, distribution of sediments, and markers of past glaciers, and even crystallized rat pee.

By comparing multiple sets of proxy records, scientists have been able to reconstruct a fairly consistent story of Earth’s climate, for at least the past few thousand years [NOAA says that proxy climate data extend the weather and climate information archive by hundreds to millions of years]. While the methods of calculating global average temperature, from different proxies, can vary from team to team, the outcomes are broadly consistent over time, and they converge with the instrumental record. The broad agreement of several datasets increases our confidence, that proxies reveal valid temperature records.

NOAA Paleoclimatology ➥ https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/paleoclimatology

[GordMay]

Scientists hope to mimic the most extreme hurricane conditions

In January, the National Science Foundation awarded a $12.8 million grant to researchers to design a facility that can simulate wind speeds of at least 290 km/h — and can, at the same time, produce deadly, towering storm surges.

FIU already hosts the Wall of Wind, a huge hurricane simulator housed in a large hangar anchored at one end by an arc of 12 massive yellow fans. Even at low wind speeds — say, around 50 km/h — the fans generate a loud, unsettling hum. At full blast, those fans can generate wind speeds of up to 252 km/h — equivalent to a low-grade category 5 hurricane.

It’s one of eight facilities in a national network of laboratories that study the potential impacts of wind, water and earthquake hazards, collectively called the U.S. Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure, or NHERI.

More about ➥ https://beta.nsf.gov/funding/opportu...tructure-nheri

Wall of Wind ➥ https://cee.fiu.edu/research/facilities/wall-of-wind

Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI)
➥ https://beta.nsf.gov/funding/opportu...tructure-nheri

[Bycrick]

"Hind casting" is simply a fancy way to describe the process of picking a bunch of data, manipulating the model until it gives you the results you want, and then claiming that you can use that to predict the future.

[GordMay]

A hindcast [AKA: backtesting] is a way of testing a mathematical model.
Known inputs, for past events, are entered into the model, to see how well the output matches the known results.
In short, a climate hindcast compares the predictions of global temperature, made by climate models, to the actual observations. If it did well predicting the past, from a known start; it might also do well predicting the future.
Of course, as Yogi Berra said: "Making predictions is hard, especially about the future."


Most of the global climate models, used to project Earth’s future global average surface temperatures, over the past half-century, have been quite accurate.
➥ https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/s...ections-right/


But, don’t let the facts get in the way of an ignorant opinion.

[Alan Mighty]

Savind S. Chand et al., 'Declining tropical cyclone frequency under
global warming,' in _Nature Climate Change_. Published 27 June 2022.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01388-4
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01388-4.pdf (about 2MB)

Abstract: Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.

[boatpoker]

Originally Posted by nortonscove

People seem to trust science that works for them. They will get on a plane without questioning the science but refuse to believe it if it isn't something they don't want to hear. The bias regarding science is usually in the person receiving the results and not the scientists.

Ridiculous, Nowhere in Gord's post did he state anything as fact.

[GordMay]

How Climate Change is Influencing Extreme Weather

On Tuesday [28 June, 2022], a team of climate scientists published a study [1], in the journal Environmental Research: Climate. The researchers scrutinized the role climate change has played, in individual weather events, over the past two decades.
In general, a heat wave that previously had a 1 in 10 chance of occurring, is now nearly three times as likely, and peaking at temperatures around 1 degree Celsius higher, than it would have been, without climate change.
Overall, episodes of heavy rainfall are becoming more common and more intense. That's because warmer air holds more moisture, so storm clouds are "heavier" before they eventually break.

On a global scale, the frequency of storms hasn't increased. However, cyclones are now more common in the central Pacific and North Atlantic, and less so in the Bay of Bengal, western North Pacific, and southern Indian Ocean, the study said.
There is also evidence that tropical storms are becoming more intense, and even stalling over land, where they can deliver more rain on a single area.[2a & b]

[1] “Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective” ~ by Ben Clarke et al
➥ https://iopscience.iop.org/article/1...52-5295/ac6e7d




[2a] “Climate change increased rainfall associated with tropical cyclones hitting highly vulnerable communities in Madagascar, Mozambique & Malawi”
➥ https://www.worldweatherattribution....mbique-malawi/

[2b] “Climate change added $4bn to damage of Japan’s Typhoon Hagibis”
➥ https://www.worldweatherattribution....phoon-hagibis/

World Weather Attribution [WWA] ➥ https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/

[sailorboy1]

not going to chase those bold large screaming links

But I have to wonder whether the more remote storms are bigger or even more frequent, or is it just we have better ability to count and measure them. This time of year I check for hurricane activity every morning and a lot of depressions would not have even been noticed 20 years ago, but now get "counted".

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

1. not going to chase those bold large screaming links
2. But I have to wonder whether the more remote storms are bigger or even more frequent, or is it just we have better ability to count and measure them. This time of year I check for hurricane activity every morning and a lot of depressions would not have even been noticed 20 years ago, but now get "counted".

1. Then, you'll probably remain ignorant.
2. I think that the majority of the studies, linked in this long thread, have agreed that, on a global scale, the frequency [number count] of storms has NOT increased; but, that climate change is probably increasing the intensity, of tropical cyclones.

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by GordMay

1. Then, you'll probably remain ignorant.
.

Well that is fine then and you can consider your mission to change me a failure.

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Well that is fine then and you can consider your mission to change me a failure.

So I got a PM from GrodMay to tell me "You are as irrelevant to me, as you are to the discussion." So I came back to read some more of the thread and surprisingly found that is among the main points on the thread if a poster doesn't agree with all he posts. Now I could be special in this case as "you'll probably remain ignorant", which puts me in a higher stage of ignorant based on my post of "But I have to wonder whether the more remote storms are bigger or even more frequent, or is it just we have better ability to count and measure them."

[SuW]

Useful contributions welcomed. Other stuff ignored.

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by SuW

Useful contributions welcomed. Other stuff ignored.

Help me out as to what is "useful". Is only stuff that supports your position useful? Or is it something that may go aganist it?

[GordMay]

In February/23, the First Street Foundation released their peer-reviewed wind model [1], that uses open science to identify the likelihood and financial impacts of tropical cyclones, for all properties in the contiguous United States today, and up to 30 years in the future, under a changing climate.

Titled ”The 7th National Risk Assessment: Worsening Winds” [1 a & b], The Foundation also released the findings, and methodology leveraged, to quantify this risk, which combines high resolution measurements of well over 50,000 synthetic storm tracks, to determine likely sustained wind direction and speed, adjust for local surface roughness effects on wind speed, and quantify the probability and magnitude of 3-second gusts, that drive the majority of wind-related losses.

First Street Foundation’s model finds that over 13.4 million properties will be exposed to tropical cyclones, in 30 years, that are not currently.

This increasing exposure is due the greater proportion of hurricanes that are expected to reach major hurricane status [Category 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale] today, and into the future, and the greater likelihood that storms will track further northward, along the US East Coast.

Furthermore, the research demonstrates that Florida, the most exposed state, can expect a shift in the landfall of hurricanes from the south, in cities such as Miami, to more northern locations such as Jacksonville.
This shift in location, and strength of hurricanes, in Florida alone, results in the number of properties that may face a Category 5 hurricane, from 2.5 million in 2023, to 4.1 million by the year 2053.

[1a] Highlights From "Worsening Winds"
➥ https://firststreet.org/research-lab...rsening-winds/

[1b] “The 7th National Climate Risk Assessment: Worsening Winds”
4 key findings emerge from this report:
- Hurricanes are tracking further northward.
- The largest increase in maximum wind speeds will impact states in the Mid-Atlantic.
- Increased wind speeds put billions of dollars at risk annually in the South.
- Florida accounts for over 70% of the entire Nation’s risk.
Download Full Report ➥ https://report.firststreet.org/wind


See also First Street Foundation’s other peer reviewed, property specific, climate adjusted, physical risk models:
➥ https://firststreet.org/methodology/