Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[Montanan]

Seemingly, without a powerful Gulf Stream there would be no longer a challenge as to "crossing" to contend with. But then that would be of comparative minor consequence.


Once melting glaciers shut down the Gulf Stream, we will see extreme climate change within decades

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...a0165c53&ei=45

[Mike OReilly]

I doubt we'd have to wait for decades to see extreme consequenses of a collapsed or significantly slowed AMOC. Northern Europe would freeze, as would (to a lesser extent) parts of Atlantic Canada.

But what would happen to all the heat generated in the mid-Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico? The AMOC is one of the principle methods the area sheds heat energy. One other way is through hurricanes. I have no idea what will arise, but that's a lot of energy that has to go somewhere.

I'd expect rather immediate, and challenging, weather outcomes from an AMOC collapse. An easier crossing to the Bahamas will seem minor compensation.

[GordMay]

The MSN article, Montanan linked [#601], offers several hot links to primary sources*, in the first paragraph [& throughout*], including:

“Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation” ~ by Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

and:
“Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course” ~ by René M. van Westen et al
➥ https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189#con1


* In fact, it’s an incredibly well-researched, and sourced article.

[Montanan]

Change to the forecast cone:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/colorful-...103000831.html

Starting in August 2024, NHC’s cone of uncertainty will show inland watches and warning, as well as the extent of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds.


The cone, introduced 22 years ago, has been misinterpreted by the general public practically since day one. It’s meant to show the hurricane center’s best guess for where the eye of the storm will travel, with a cone around it that follows a formula based on the average errors the hurricane center makes when tracking a storm. As the science improves, the cone shrinks.

Exemplary map is displayed below:

[GordMay]

“Mars attracts: How Earth’s interactions with the red planet drive deep-sea circulation”
Giant whirlpools, in warming oceans, could counter Gulf Stream stagnation.

According to a new analysis [1] of the deep-sea geological record, the gravitational interaction, between Mars and Earth, results in cyclic changes in deep ocean currents, that recur every 2.4 million years [the "Astronomical Grand Cycle"]. These cycles are not linked to the current rapid global warming, caused by human greenhouse gas emissions.

The study has identified that deep eddies were an important component of earlier warming seas. It is possible these could partly mitigate ocean stagnation, some have predicted, could follow a faltering AMOC [Atlantic meridional overturning circulation] that drives the Gulf Stream, and maintains temperate climates in Europe.

We know there are at least two separate mechanisms that contribute to the vigour of deep-water mixing in the oceans. AMOC is one of them, but deep ocean eddies seem to play an important role in warm climates, for keeping the ocean ventilated.

These eddies are like giant whirlpools, and often reach the abyssal seafloor, resulting in seafloor erosion, and large sediment accumulations, called contourites, akin to snowdrifts.

Dr Dutkiewicz said: “Our deep-sea data spanning 65 million years suggest that warmer oceans have more vigorous deep circulation. This will potentially keep the ocean from becoming stagnant even if Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slows or stops altogether.”

More about: ➥ https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1037006

[1] “Deep-sea hiatus record reveals orbital pacing by 2.4 Myr eccentricity grand cycles”~ by Adriana Dutkiewicz et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46171-5

[Montanan]

"What's happening?

The Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the planet, causing more ice to melt. This sends surges of fresh, cold water into the North Atlantic, which upsets the normal flow of ocean currents.

According to the study's lead author, Marilena Oltmanns, the large inflows of melted ice are relatively new to the North Atlantic.

The study suggests a major "freshwater anomaly" is currently emerging that will likely trigger a drought and heatwave this summer in Southern Europe, Oltmanns said. It could also set off a heatwave and drought in Northern Europe within the next five years."


https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/5/109/2024/

European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in preceding years

[Pete7]

Well that's all a bit gloomy

We have had two hot summers so far and even the UK with a temperate maritime climate didn't fare too well with even roads melting. Life on board with temperature plus 30c also unpleasant if you're not acclimatised to it.

Hot summers and very wet winters were we have seen double the average rainfall in February and all winter months above.

Pete

[Montanan]

Okay, I will do my best to try to move us out of the gloom and doom and into some humor [while avoiding Poly-Ticks]:

We haven't found a solution for climate change yet, but...
...we're definitely getting warmer.


Never argue about climate change
It always turns into a heated debate.

Why did the weatherman blush?
He saw the climate change


Climate change is such a joke...
Even the Antarctic ice sheets are cracking up.


What's the scariest part about climate change?
The atmosfear.


I haven't always believed in climate change
But I'm warming up to the theory.


I don’t get it. What’s the problem with climate change, ice bergs melting and the sea level rising?
I mean the excess water just flows down the edge of the Earth.


I started to get really worried about climate change when I was house shopping and my real estate agent used the phrase:
“Potential Water Front Property”


Remember when glaciers were cool?
That's all. What's a good follow up? It's a climate change joke. Idk.

[Montanan]

Ocean heat records keep puzzling, alarming scientists in 2024. Here's what to know.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...45d47439&ei=86


Scientists continue to be astonished and alarmed by warmer temperatures across the world’s oceans between the 60 degree latitude lines.

On March 10, the globe’s daily average sea surface temperature briefly jumped to a new record high of 70.16 degrees Fahrenheit, according to a chart kept by the Maine Climate Reanalyzer, using NOAA data.

Study significance
Rising sea levels directly threaten coastal communities around the globe, increasing the risk of flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources.

As sea levels rise, even moderate storms become capable of causing significant damage and displacement.

Unfortunately, many of the most populous cities and essential infrastructure are located near the coast, making them particularly vulnerable. While the news about sea level rise is sobering, it's critical to recognize that the future is yet to be written.

Does rising sea levels float all boats?

[donradcliffe]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

But what would happen to all the heat generated in the mid-Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico? The AMOC is one of the principle methods the area sheds heat energy. One other way is through hurricanes. I have no idea what will arise, but that's a lot of energy that has to go somewhere.

.

First law of thermodynamics-- Energy cannot be created or destroyed.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by donradcliffe

First law of thermodynamics-- Energy cannot be created or destroyed.

Indeed; but, with respect to energy, Earth is an open system.
Sunlight* radiant energy flows in, and heat energy escapes.
Previously, when averaged over the course of a year, the incoming energy from the sun, and outgoing energy from Earth, were very nearly in balance, keeping the average global temperature within the narrow range, that supports and sustains life, as we know it.

* The Sun converts a small fraction [±0.71%] mass into [heat and light] energy, in a nuclear fusion process , and radiates it towards the Earth.

The Earth’s climate is a complex system, that is driven by energy from the sun.

This energy is absorbed by the Earth’s surface and atmosphere, and is then re-emitted as heat.
The balance between the incoming solar radiation, and the outgoing heat, is known as the Earth’s energy balance, and it is governed by the laws of thermodynamics.

When the Earth absorbs energy from the sun, it must either store this energy, or release it back into space, in the form of heat.
If [as appears to be the current situation] the amount of energy absorbed by the Earth, is greater than the amount of energy released [imbalanced], the Earth will warm up, leading to a rise in global temperatures.
If the opposite were true, the Earth would cool down.

I think that Mike’s comment concerns the conversion of this ‘extra’ [energy imbalance] heat energy into kinetic energy, in the form of winds and currents, etc.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by donradcliffe

First law of thermodynamics-- Energy cannot be created or destroyed.

Yes indeed. It has to go somewhere. The AMOC is a principle mechanism for dispersing this energy, moving it from south to north. Hurricanes, and lesser weather events, are others. If the AMOC slows, or shuts down, the energy will likely go into feeding greater, or just more, weather events. And it will likely find new and unexpected mechanisms.

None of this will be good for humanity or our global civilization.

[donradcliffe]

The second law of Thermodynamics is that entropy is always increasing. It means that energy flows from hot to cold, and natural processes like the earth's air and water circulation are always irreversible. These circulations are driven by DIFFERENCES in temperature, not the absolute value of temperature.

Its an extremely complex system, leading to Thomas Kuhn's fifth law of Thermodynamics. According to this “law,” there will always be discrepancies between experimental results and scientists' prior expectations, whether those expectations arise from theory or from other experimental data.

[Don C L]

That temperature difference, or its reduction, has been part of the problem. As the arctic warms the difference between the polar (atmospheric) temperatures and the equatorial temperatures has reduced resulting in the slowing of the jet stream, causing large loops in it to form.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Yes indeed. It has to go somewhere. The AMOC is a principle mechanism for dispersing this energy, moving it from south to north. Hurricanes, and lesser weather events, are others. If the AMOC slows, or shuts down, the energy will likely go into feeding greater, or just more, weather events. And it will likely find new and unexpected mechanisms.

None of this will be good for humanity or our global civilization.

Indeed!

The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation [AMOC] could happen as soon as 2100, according to a study [1] from Utrecht University, published last month, in the journal Science Advances.
An AMOC breakdown would probably reduce average air temperatures, in the Northern Hemisphere, by around 40 degrees Fahrenheit, or more.

Another, much simpler model, found that the AMOC could shut down even as early as 2025 [tho’ more likely mid-century]. The controversial study [2], was published in Nature Communications, in June 2023.

The AMOC hasn’t shut down for 12,000 years. But, when it shut down, repeatedly, in the past, during the ice ages from 115,000 to 12,000 years ago, it preceded dramatic climate changes.
If it does so again, it could drop temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere, raise sea levels, interrupt rain flows, and cause droughts, famine, and other disasters.

The collapse of the AMOC has huge implications, and we can’t just sit back and say, ‘I don’t know, maybe we’re wrong." We have to stop fossil fuel usage, and greenhouse gas emissions. if we want to prevent this.

[1] “Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course” ~ by René M. van Westen et al
➥ https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189

[2] “Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation” ~ by Peter Ditlevsen & Susanne Ditlevsen
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s414...caca2d0a82b821