Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[Montanan]

Hey, whatever floats your boat,


Sea levels are rising in Florida and the pace is picking up

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...f892a152&ei=11

South Florida has for years felt the impact of rising sea levels in the state, but the pace is picking up rapidly and is expected to quicken even more,

Over the past 80 years, sea levels have risen approximately one foot, with eight inches of that increase occurring in the last 30 years,

The next foot increase, however, is expected within 30 years. The next one 20 years later and the following one in just 10, according to projections by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The current trends are in line with the organization's higher projections.

[GordMay]

Rapid Intensification in Hurricanes

Some of the effects of climate change include: hurricanes producing more rainfall, moving further inland in the Atlantic, and, more concerning to many climate scientists, rapid intensification.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center [NHC] defines* rapid intensification as: "an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt [56 km/h] in a 24-hour period.”

Hurricane “Beryl” went from a Category 1, to a Category 4 in just 24 hours, eventually jumping to a Category 5 hurricane. On June 29, the NHC had forecast that it would "intensify quickly into a major hurricane."
It was the earliest Category 4, and cat. 5, on record, for the Atlantic basin.

Along with two other rapidly strengthening storms [Idalia & Otis], last season, that's three instances of rapid intensification, in just five hurricane month.

First there was Hurricane Idalia, in August ,that jumped from a Category 1 to a Category 4 in just 24 hours. It eventually hit the area of Big Bend, Fla., as a Category 3, causing widespread damage.

Then, two months later, Hurricane Otis stunned climate scientists.
Initially, when the tropical depression formed, on Oct. 21, in the Pacific Ocean, forecasters had only called for it to develop into a tropical storm. Even in the subsequent days, the NHC had only forecast that Otis would be near hurricane strength at landfall, and that heavy rainfall would be the main threat.
But, then on October 24 [in 9 hours, between 1 p.m. and 10 p.m. ET], Otis went from a Category 1 to a "catastrophic" Category 5, slamming into Acapulco, and surrounding areas, killing at least 52 people.

A 2023 study [1], that looked at the increases in intensification of hurricanes, in the Atlantic basin, found that: it has now become more than twice as likely for a hurricane to develop, from a Category 1 storm, into a major hurricane [Category 3 and higher], in 24 hours [or less], compared to the 1970s and 1980s.

* Glossary of NHC Terms ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss....4%2Dh%20period.

* Glossary of NWS Terms: [Rapid Deepening: A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb for 24 hours.
Rapidly Intensifying: Any maritime cyclone whose central pressure is dropping, or is expected to drop, at a rate of 1 MB per hour for 24 hours. ]
➥ https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?letter=r

[1] “Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates” ~ by Andra J. Garner
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-42669-y

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-42669-y

Originally Posted by Garner

“Abstract:
Quickly intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) are exceptionally hazardous for Atlantic coastlines. An analysis of observed maximum changes in wind speed for Atlantic TCs from 1971 to 2020 indicates that TC intensification rates have already changed as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have warmed the planet and oceans. Mean maximum TC intensification rates are up to 28.7% greater in a modern era (2001–2020) compared to a historical era (1971–1990). In the modern era, it is about as likely for TCs to intensify by at least 50 kts in 24 h, and more likely for TCs to intensify by at least 20 kts within 24 h than it was for TCs to intensify by these amounts in 36 h in the historical era. Finally, the number of TCs that intensify from a Category 1 hurricane (or weaker) into a major hurricane within 36 h has more than doubled in the modern era relative to the historical era. Significance tests suggest that it would have been statistically impossible to observe the number of TCs that intensified in this way during the modern era if rates of intensification had not changed from the historical era ... ”

[davil]

Just checked the box, I agree wholehearted.

Also, I plead to the moderators to be swift on preserving access to information so vital to anyone who sails.

I live in Morehead City NC and this is the first time I am seating out the season.
instead of sailing up the northeast seaboard as normally have done, instead hauled out and will keep the boat on the hard until the end of the season.

I discussed this action with the boatyard owner, and he agreed it will be prudent to beat the rush of last minute warnings.

On this last posting, there is reference to weather conditions “intensification”, will add from my observations also how fast the conditions develop.