Cost/Benefit Ratio of Offsoundings weather reports

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by PippaB

The difficulty in this is evaluating the benefit, and this is what Stu was pointing out. It’s pretty easy to evaluate the cost, but what is the benefit, to you, of never having to sail a small boat through a day of winds > 80 knots? For me, based on unfortunate experience, the value I would place on never having to do that again is priceless. When one side of the equation is priceless, well, that means you spend everything you have to get there. Other people might view the same conditions as a refreshing challenge and seek them out.

Then you have the secondary question, if you have this data, how confident are you in your own ability to properly interpret the weather report and to make the right decision based on that report? Again, something nearly impossible for anyone else to evaluate for you.

And then lastly, how capable is your boat and crew of executing the decision?

Personally, I think that most cruising boats, with two days of advance forecast information can significantly better their situation if caught out on a passage with a major storm forecast on the horizon. The OP mentioned a hurricane, the average hurricane is about 300 miles in diameter, with two days warning of the probable track you only need to be make 75 miles/day to have a good chance of avoiding the worst of it. I feel my boat and my crew can do that in most conditions, so I would like to have the gear aboard to receive that forecast.

But that’s my math, since the value of the benefit is so personal it will be different for everyone who runs the analysis.

If it is truly priceless, then you will never go on passage again right? No amount of technology at any cost can 100% guarantee never encountering such winds when on passage.

If you are going to use a superlative, I will ask you if you are really serious.

[El Pinguino]

For the OP.
I won't get involved in the 'how' of getting external weather information - do a search here on CF - plenty of info on that. You can spend $$$ to get it via satellite from a bespoke provider or you can get a program from BlackCat and sit your iPhone next to a $150 Tecsun.
I will suggest that you learn how to 'read the weather' .. maybe you already can., dunno. I like the books written by the recently deceased Alan Watts - just google his name plus 'Weather'.
Moving right along.
Not sure why you would be in a place where hurricanes are forming 'up weather' However--
If you do find yourself in such a situation you will first see it in a sat pic of the clouds long before you see it in the isobars or hear about on the radio.
And once forewarned you can indeed improve your lot by making sure you are in the safe semi circle.

Now, you haven't said where you plan on voyaging but let us assume the South Pacific is involved. Simples you say - SE trades up the top, SW'lies in the 'Roaring Forties' ( titter ) down the bottom , says so on the pilot charts.
I suggest you look here - select your area of interest and have a looksee every day for the next year or so
https://earth.nullschool.net/#curren....95,-33.78,614

A pic below of the entire south pacific.
Note that where 'the westerlies blow with unrelenting fury' we have NW'ly, SWly, N'ly , a bit of calm and a bit of easterly. Knowing what is going on ' up weather' can be a great aid to successful passage making.

My choices? Gribs or simple Wefax.

[Hasbeen]

I once left Fiji for the Solomons 36 hours after a strong front went through. On the second day it started getting rough, & got rougher all the way until almost there.


It was only then I realised I had been sailing faster than the storm. If I had slowed I would have dropped out of it. We did not have the gear in the 70 to know.

[rupertfb]

I agree with SNORE and BillKny here...

As a Delivery Captain that goes offshore, I am permanently in touch with two expert meteorologists that send me offshore forecasts as well as interpretations of the forecasts.

Hurricanes don't appear without notice and even a long way offshore - you can use this critical Met' information wisely to huge advantage over someone without it.

It's not expensive to access. I use Garmin InReach: $240 to $400 for the hardware (depending which model you buy) and a monthly plan from $30 (ish?) to $70 (ish?) that can be turned on and off, for periods you don't need it.
The InReach has a low grade weather info system, but doesn't supply GRIBs.

Rupert

[GBR134]

Wow - heated stuff on here today. My 2p worth. We are slowly sailing from the uk to Greece in 2 to 3 week segments and therefore rarely are out of shore based systems for more than 2 or 3 days at a time. As a mainly Gung- Ho dinghy sailor transferred to and elderly 36’ cruiser we do most stuff on a budget which doesn’t justify permanent offshshore weather info. I doubt (hope) I won’t die from the lack of it. But as a sailor I find it bizarre to question whether up to date weather info is useful. Jeez I never sailed a dinghy regatta without looking for all the wether info I could get for a 1 to 2 hour race.

When we crossed Biscay (target 5-7 days). I hired a sat phone for weather data - mainly to try ang get nearer 5 days than 7. Especially as. We carried diesel for only 36 hours continuous motoring. On tight timescales, accurate wether info is damned useful!😘

[Gliderpilot]

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

I guess what I meant was it seems to me when sailing a small vessel between 3-6kts it doesn't really seem possible to effectively avoid large weather cells.

You do not have to be very far from the center of a hurricane to make a huge difference in survivability. Just look at the relative destruction on on neighbouring Caribbean Islands such as Dominica vs Les Saints or Martinique, Barbuda vs. Antigua., St.Martin vs St.Barts. All are a few tens of nmi apart but the difference in destruction caused by Irma and Maria was huge. Plus unless you are extremely unlucky, with satellite weather you should get several days warning that something nasty is brewing. After some 30,000 miles of passages I would not dream of leaving without satellite weather. Even at 3-5 kts you can always improve your track if you have good information. Plus even on a good weather passage regular forecasts easily pay for the added costs in fuel savings, less time at sea, ease of communication and overall enjoyment of a relaxed passage. My preference is by far Iridium Go! With predictwind. Cost vs SSB and modem is cheaper when compared full cycle for 3-4 years since SSB is so expensive up front and limited in its communication options.

[Adelie]

The OPs background is in aviation where weather can be seen at a significant distance and where speeds exceed 100kt.

I believe he was in part trying to recalibrate his sense of scale for this situation whether he realized this or not. I do not see that he was questioning whether wx info is useful but how much use he could make of it when his speed was now single digits.

Also he seemed to be trying to figure out budget implications for various levels of wx products. That may have been an incorrect conclusion I drew from the title.

[Gliderpilot]

Here is my logic just to expand on my previous post. An SSB setup I looked at cost over $5500 USD, and that was the bits not the fully installed with proper grounding and antenna etc. My iridium Go was $1300 all in plus $130/month for full text, email phone and unlimited weather via predict wind. That left over $4200 to pay the monthly fee, or at least 32 months of the service costs. Since I only use it 6 months per year that is over 5 years just to break even with the SSB install. Plus the Iridium is portable so it goes hiking, motorcycling, or in the life raft if I ever need to abandon the boat. Being able to make a phone call to fast track the rescue is a comforting thought ….and I personally know of a sailor who did just that mid-atlantic. There is just so much flexibility It is a great option for me. So having that weather link is really important to me, the extra benefits made it a good choice and more economically palatable than SSB. But that is why there are so many great choices out there now. There is something to suit every budget.

BTW my background is geology, gliding is just a fun hobby when not cruising oceans. Cheers

[Peeew]

I am of the aviation world also and pretty good with weather knowledge from that point of view. But sailing is different to me. Wave patterns, slow moving etc. For short crossings, not a problem for me. For longer crossings with my knowledge level I do find interpretation to be valuable to supplement the data I receive. I set up an Acct with a marine weather service and request/receive info upon request via a inreach device. I find it useful as I continue to learn and easy enough for me.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Gliderpilot

Here is my logic just to expand on my previous post. An SSB setup I looked at cost over $5500 USD, and that was the bits not the fully installed with proper grounding and antenna etc. My iridium Go was $1300 all in plus $130/month for full text, email phone and unlimited weather via predict wind. That left over $4200 to pay the monthly fee, or at least 32 months of the service costs. Since I only use it 6 months per year that is over 5 years just to break even with the SSB install. Plus the Iridium is portable so it goes hiking, motorcycling, or in the life raft if I ever need to abandon the boat. Being able to make a phone call to fast track the rescue is a comforting thought ….and I personally know of a sailor who did just that mid-atlantic. There is just so much flexibility It is a great option for me. So having that weather link is really important to me, the extra benefits made it a good choice and more economically palatable than SSB. But that is why there are so many great choices out there now. There is something to suit every budget.

BTW my background is geology, gliding is just a fun hobby when not cruising oceans. Cheers

I think you left out the PW subscription cost or an alternative like Sailmail.

The IridiumGo is a good system for offshore weather files. Not sure doing the analysis out to 5 years is that useful as the Go will be obsolete by then.

The SSB has other uses such a nets that can't be practically done by the Go. Some cruisers really like having the daily net while offshore, others not so much,

[PippaB]

Originally Posted by Adelie

If it is truly priceless, then you will never go on passage again right? No amount of technology at any cost can 100% guarantee never encountering such winds when on passage.

If you are going to use a superlative, I will ask you if you are really serious.

No, it means the value is so great that I can't associate a fixed price with it. It also then leads to the corollary that I would prioritize spending such that I can have that information before departing on the passage.

One big caveat in all of that, I believe that I can make the decision (using the information) and my boat is capable of then implementing/handling the decision. If I don't spend enough on the other boat systems so that the boat is seaworthy then I wouldn't go -> have to have enough resources to maintain the seaworthiness of the boat and to obtain the weather data.

I've been sailing an awfully long time. I have put to sea with very limited weather data - and been caught out as a result. My personal math is that I don't want to be in that situation again. For me the necessary level of information is synoptic charts and long-range forecast discussions. I don't feel I need more than that, and, quite frankly they're just not that hard to get, so why wouldn't I?

[donradcliffe]

The earliest warnings I get on TRS is from the 10 day grib forecast. I always download both the European and US gribs once every 24 hours, because they differ greatly when they are more than a week out. However those models pick up TRS when the NHC is still not forecasting any development in the next 48 hours.

Once the NHC designates a TRS, the best info comes from their "discussion" where they include the reasoning behind their interpretation of the models, and whether or not there are large discrepancies between the models.

The NHC predictions are more accurate than the raw models, but they sometimes guess wrong, with deadly consequences. If Adelie thinks that a larger "blue water" boat will save you, read the NTSB investigation of the sinking of the El Faro. In that case a 700 ft ship went down with 33 souls because the captain didn't update his plan and relied on weather predictions that were over 12 hours old.

[Mara Mae]

Originally Posted by Adelie

The OPs background is in aviation where weather can be seen at a significant distance and where speeds exceed 100kt.

I believe he was in part trying to recalibrate his sense of scale for this situation whether he realized this or not. I do not see that he was questioning whether wx info is useful but how much use he could make of it when his speed was now single digits.

Also he seemed to be trying to figure out budget implications for various levels of wx products. That may have been an incorrect conclusion I drew from the title.

No you understood quite well my thought process and intentions of asking the question. I believe the responses were all in all very helpful and your assistance helping to tone down the vitriol was effective. As my profile gains prominence the troll accusations will cease I believe.

[Mara Mae]

Originally Posted by PippaB

I've been sailing an awfully long time. I have put to sea with very limited weather data - and been caught out as a result. My personal math is that I don't want to be in that situation again. For me the necessary level of information is synoptic charts and long-range forecast discussions. I don't feel I need more than that, and, quite frankly they're just not that hard to get, so why wouldn't I?

Good point.

[Mara Mae]

Originally Posted by Peeew

I am of the aviation world also and pretty good with weather knowledge from that point of view. But sailing is different to me. Wave patterns, slow moving etc. For short crossings, not a problem for me. For longer crossings with my knowledge level I do find interpretation to be valuable to supplement the data I receive. I set up an Acct with a marine weather service and request/receive info upon request via a inreach device. I find it useful as I continue to learn and easy enough for me.

Inreach is interesting for me because I have a Garmin Chartplotter and Radar and am quite happy with their support network. I would like to know more about the weather service you contracted. I am considering having the reports sent to me from land based friends so I can apply them to my charts.