Dorian

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

To put in context all the hype over this storm, as of now hurricane force winds exist only within a 20 mile radius of the center.

Couple of things,
It’s still growing,
It has slowed down considerably, meaning of course it may not be a slam bam kind of storm but one that hammers you all day and into the night, and it has more time to grow.
Then right now, we are having “King Tides” meaning of course unusually high tides, and they are compounded by how close the moon is currently as in distance from the Earth, so it’s likely we will get storm surge on top of King Tides.

Hopefully this will be no Michael, but do take it seriously.
If you over prepare, no harm, no foul. But if you don’t do all the things you should thinking it’s just a small storm, you may be in for an expensive surprise.

Me, I’m hoping it burns itself out and ends up being just a bunch of hype, but I don’t think that’s what is going to happen.

[S/V Illusion]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Couple of things,
It’s still growing,
It has slowed down considerably, meaning of course it may not be a slam bam kind of storm but one that hammers you all day and into the night, and it has more time to grow.
Then right now, we are having “King Tides” meaning of course unusually high tides, and they are compounded by how close the moon is currently as in distance from the Earth, so it’s likely we will get storm surge on top of King Tides.

Hopefully this will be no Michael, but do take it seriously.
If you over prepare, no harm, no foul. But if you don’t do all the things you should thinking it’s just a small storm, you may be in for an expensive surprise.

Me, I’m hoping it burns itself out and ends up being just a bunch of hype, but I don’t think that’s what is going to happen.

It's clearly prudent to prepare as I said.



Unfortunately, it's also possible to do so too early given the uncertainty. When people over-react prematurely, that breads complacency in future similar events which can often be worse. It's often heard that "the predictions far overstated the reality" which leads people to become complacent. To avoid that happening to everyone, it's good to prepare but not to the extent and timing that you end up wasting your effort which frustrates lots of people who remember that in the 'next one' which they minimize.


The moral of the story - Monday is still a long way off in terms of predicting this one's path.

[motion30]

Left Hollywood Florida a week and a half ago currently in Key West. I am cautiously optimistic that the storm will miss the Lower Keys

[sailorboy1]

Just look at how the path changed.

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Just look at how the path changed.

donot sneeze......

fla will still get wet, but not gonna blow entirely away

north carolina, however.....

[sailorboy1]

I’m not in FL so am happy for me that it is going turn north and not head into the Gulf

[a64pilot]

I’ve rode out a hurricane, actually thankfully all near misses every year except one since buying this boat.
I disagree with you can prepare too early, if you wait, then there are no dock lines available should you need any, Wx is often quite bad the few days leading up to a Hurricane, so if you don’t mind prepping the boat in pouring rain go ahead, I’d rather do it in the sun and heat myself.

Plus since I’ve done it now several times, we have gotten pretty good at it. I can now fully prep everything in one day easily as it’s all a solved problem, not much figuring out how to do things, now it’s just do it.

I hope very strongly that all my prep work was a waste of time, I figure it’s like carrying spares, rarely do you need what you have in stores, it’s always the tool or part you don’t have that is needed.

[Palarran]

I'm happy to see that the track has moved a little north of Grand Bahama this last 12 hours. Can anyone make heads or tails of the European model? I can's see where it has the eye heading over the next 12 hours.

I know it doesn't make a difference, I'm just trying to calm my nerves.

[dwedeking2]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I’ve rode out a hurricane, actually thankfully all near misses every year except one since buying this boat.
I disagree with you can prepare too early, if you wait, then there are no dock lines available should you need any, Wx is often quite bad the few days leading up to a Hurricane, so if you don’t mind prepping the boat in pouring rain go ahead, I’d rather do it in the sun and heat myself.

Plus since I’ve done it now several times, we have gotten pretty good at it. I can now fully prep everything in one day easily as it’s all a solved problem, not much figuring out how to do things, now it’s just do it.

I hope very strongly that all my prep work was a waste of time, I figure it’s like carrying spares, rarely do you need what you have in stores, it’s always the tool or part you don’t have that is needed.

I'm frequently described as the "boy scout". Maybe it's the military experience. Maybe its growing up in the Mojave desert. Just naturally set up for the worst. Never surprised on the worst end. Makes sleeping easy.

Been on the boat through Mathews and stressed through Irma as the boat went through the eye.

[barnakiel]

No, the path is how it went.


What has changed is the forecast. Do not mix things or else the conversation goes S.


b.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Palarran

I'm happy to see that the track has moved a little north of Grand Bahama this last 12 hours. Can anyone make heads or tails of the European model? I can's see where it has the eye heading over the next 12 hours.

I know it doesn't make a difference, I'm just trying to calm my nerves.

Is this what you want to see:


https://www.wunderground.com/hurrica...rian?map=model


I think it is UK model not EU. I would not bet any $ on EU hurricane predictions. Follow the money, US get hit bad, US has best models.


No one can say where it will head next, the forecast tracks are the MOST PROBABLE ones. If you understand what a distribution is, you understand what the tracks as drawn mean.


If you are anywhere close to the thing, do ALL that your authorities suggest in such cases (blind the windows, delete all garden toys, fill all jars with potable water, etc.)


Good luck,
b.

[real_goat]

Barnakiel, your theory about GFS / ECMWF is so wrong on many levels. Please don’t spread misinformation if you base your theory solely on a hunch.
The ECMWF model is way (!) better over oceans ...

[barnakiel]

An interesting twist I have read on the web today:


If you live on the land, avoid too early evacuation. Why? For you might evacuate yourself right into the path, should the system change direction!


Interesting! Basically, stay put, wait for official evacuation orders from your sheriff.


In a boat, I think, the rule is quite the opposite - if you are moving away, move very very early. Boats normally do not drive at 100 mph, like your car.


Hmmmm.


b.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by real_goat

Barnakiel, your theory about GFS / ECMWF is so wrong on many levels. Please don’t spread misinformation if you base your theory solely on a hunch.
The ECMWF model is way (!) better over oceans ...

So you are the person who KNOWS which model is better and which is worse, and you are telling us the ECMWF model is the one to trust in case of Dorian?


And I am the person who is so wrong on many levels and who is spreading misinformation and is creating theories based on a hunch?

Fine,
b.

[barnakiel]

Where is that bloody ignore button?


;-)



b.