Dorian

[sveinung]

This seems to be just a clip on loop boatpoker?

[boatpoker]

Originally Posted by sveinung

This seems to be just a clip on loop boatpoker?

After watching it for a while, I agree. It's a fake. Watching the debris on the ground suggests about a 4 minute loop. I have reported it to Youtube as such.

[a64pilot]

A coupe of thoughts.
I believe that the NHC has to be conservative, that is push the worst case.
Reason is if they are wrong and you don’t get hit or it’s not as bad as they had said, no harm, no foul, every body says we were lucky this time, a few complain that it was over hyped and say they shouldn’t do that because of the boy who cried wolf syndrome.
However let them tell Millions that they are not in the projected path, and it hits to much loss of life and property, heads will roll in the NHC most assuredly, and many will have to live with the guilt that maybe people died due to their inaccurate forecast.

I think a Hurricane, especially a stalled or slow moving one will strengthen or not lose energy in shallow water where one in deep water will lose energy.
Reason is that a strong hurricane will actually pull cooler water from the depths and lose energy due to the cooler water.
In shallow waters, there is no cooler water, it’s all warm.

This is my theory, my guess so don’t put much into it.

[Cheechako]

Dorian now a Cat 5, 180 mph with gusts to 220. Direct hit on the Bahamas. It's going to be devastating there. Wishing our friends there and in SE US the best outcome possible. Moving slow also which is not good.

[barnakiel]

Of the two alternatives, which is the worse case for Florida: a T-bone hit or the present vision of the system trucking slowly along Florida's coast?


b.

[Boatguy30]

If the storm slows as much as anticipated, should stay well of SE us coast. If it continues at a steady pace of 7-8mph will get closer to FL before turning N.

So more time and damage in Abaco equals less damage to SE US it appears.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

Of the two alternatives, which is the worse case for Florida: a T-bone hit or the present vision of the system trucking slowly along Florida's coast?


b.

Depends on where the T bone would be, and how far off the coast?
If it were to T bone Ft Lauderdale, then that’s money, and if it played PAC Man and came munching on the coast itself, then that’s money too, my guess is that’s worst case, especially if it hangs onto Cat 5.

However I thought the latest guess that is now at least 24 hours old is it staying off the coast well enough so that maybe not even tropical force winds impact Fl.
Or has it changed to a PAC Man scenario and I didn’t hear about it?

[GordMay]

The eye of Category 5 Hurricane Dorian was directly over the Abacos Islands, as of the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 2:00 pm EDT advisory, and is now heading towards Grand Bahama Island. FL. Maximum sustained winds are 185 mph (296 km/h).
Dorian is moving west at 7 mph.

The central pressure is 911 Mb, which continues to lower, meaning the storm continues to intensify.

[a64pilot]

You guys know Chris Parker is doing the 6PM Facebook video thing, right? You don’t have to be a subscriber, he goes though what seems. To be every possible scenario, takes well over an hour.

[GordMay]

Wind gusts have reached over 220 mph on the Abaco Islands in the Bahamas, according to an update from the National Hurricane Center.
A storm surge of 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels, with higher destructive waves has also been reported, according to the center.
Multiple videos, from earlier today, show flooded streets.


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...26.6N 77.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.87 INCHES (Keeps Dropping!)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/011856.shtml

[Saleen411]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Depends on where the T bone would be, and how far off the coast?
If it were to T bone Ft Lauderdale, then that’s money, and if it played PAC Man and came munching on the coast itself, then that’s money too, my guess is that’s worst case, especially if it hangs onto Cat 5.

However I thought the latest guess that is now at least 24 hours old is it staying off the coast well enough so that maybe not even tropical force winds impact Fl.
Or has it changed to a PAC Man scenario and I didn’t hear about it?

1700 EDT forecasts a more westerly track and upgrade to hurricane warnings to parts of Florida's coast.

Still a crapshoot. Evidently even a 20 to 40 mile change in track can make a HUGE difference for Florida.

[thomm225]

We need to be worried about the Bahamas! They are saying this storm is the strongest on record to hit them

I heard the high point on the first island to be hit is 15' and the storm will have at least a 20' surge.

I have been through maybe 8 hurricanes and the worst was a cat 3/4 with Ivan in 2004. It came straight into Pensacola Pass so we got the worst of it.

You have the feeling that you are totally at the mercy of the storm especially when the pressure drops abruptly and you hit the deck/floor

When I did get a chance to look out, the tree were not bending over in one direction but were going back and forth

It a total mess during the worst part and we only had a 14"- 18' surge that took out the interstate highway bridge

https://www.pinterest.com/pin/101049585359571033/?nic=1

[GordMay]

Marsh Harbour, Abaco:

[Jenta]

We were in Charleston, SC when Dorian was maturing. Wanted to make it into the Chesapeake somewhere but just had a difficult passage and made it as far as Beaufort, NC and can't see running for the Chesapeake being smart now. On the other hand, this are is SO exposed and the current model puts us in crosshairs. Hopefully it will be a category 1 or 2 by that time, but I'm open to any helpful options or good locations we can make it to before Thursday.
My current instinct is to get the best dockage we can and strip sails an tie down since we have a few days to prepare. It just seems like moving from here exposes us and not just the boat.

I'm looking for a haul out facility near here but not sure I will find anything to handle a Lagoon 440.
44' Length, 25' Beam

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Jenta

We were in Charleston, SC when Dorian was maturing. Wanted to make it into the Chesapeake somewhere but just had a difficult passage and made it as far as Beaufort, NC and can't see running for the Chesapeake being smart now. On the other hand, this are is SO exposed and the current model puts us in crosshairs. Hopefully it will be a category 1 or 2 by that time, but I'm open to any helpful options or good locations we can make it to before Thursday.
My current instinct is to get the best dockage we can and strip sails an tie down since we have a few days to prepare. It just seems like moving from here exposes us and not just the boat.

I'm looking for a haul out facility near here but not sure I will find anything to handle a Lagoon 440.
44' Length, 25' Beam

Jarrett Bay on the core creek canal can haul you if you can get on their schedule and under a 65 foot bridge.