Dorian

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

I don't know the Bahamas but from what I read, it is mostly low and flat with about 200 ft at highest point.

In other words, no protection from a Cat 5

With the forewarning of this storm, why was it not possible to evacuate the 400k population to the mainland?

I know, costly but given the huge risk to life 5 big cruise ships packed with refugies could have done the job.

Not all the Bahamas were threatened including Nassau the largest town. I think it’s possible Freeport could have been evacuated as you suggest.

Other than that very few if any places to bring a cruise ship in. Some islands they stop at they lighter people ashore in small boats.

For the area effected the population outside Freeport is concentrated in Marsh Harbor. Marsh Harbor has a big new municipal complex situated on a hill. I’m guessing it was built to withstand this storm and can House a few thousand for a short time. Marsh Harbor is inside the ring of cays and should be shielded from the worst of the big ocean waves but not surge or wind.

Then there is the tourist strip of cays, mostly mentioned above. I would imagine a lot of those folks evacuated to Marsh Harbor. That’s where Nippers was. They are long narrow dune type islands with some odd sort of rock base. These are exposed to the open ocean.

Then there are the outlying islands, cays , and settlements each with no more than a few hundred people. They are sometimes very poor and with extremely limited resources. Places like Grand Cay and Cooperstown. Cooperstown has road access to Marsh Harbor but Grand Cay is boat only and a long way.

But also you have to remember that much of the out islands have already been “abandoned” or more properly “heavily depopulated” since the Brits pulled out. Very roughly 75% population loss in areas. Those left have very few resources and virtually no income and are quite remote. Some have only irregular ferry service for under a hundred people. Thankfully many of these islands were spared.

Only the North was hit hard, that’s bad enough.

[Woodland Hills]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

I don't know the Bahamas but from what I read, it is mostly low and flat with about 200 ft at highest point.

In other words, no protection from a Cat 5

With the forewarning of this storm, why was it not possible to evacuate the 400k population to the mainland?

I know, costly but given the huge risk to life 5 big cruise ships packed with refugies could have done the job.

There is no Bahamian mainland. Do you think this administration will allow 400k foreigners to enter the US without screening?

[Cheechako]

Originally Posted by Woodland Hills

There is no Bahamian mainland. Do you think this administration will allow 400k foreigners to enter the US without screening?

Yeah, Not to mention there are very few flights in or out. This would have had to be organized by the Brits with flights by small plane to Nassau/major airports, to evac to another Brit based island I suppose. Antigua? But the Brit gov't is in turmoil right now too.

[a64pilot]

The logistics just don’t make it possible, just too many people and not enough time.
Hindsight is 20/20, better plan may have been shelters, will they be built now? Will people leave?
My guess is that people will travel to where the relief / housing is available. If it’s available in their community, they will stay. Every small township had from what I saw decent dockage, often RO/RO ramps and a decent fleet of shallow draft vessels for deliveries. If they have the relief supplies available, I believe they can be distributed.
I can tell you from experience that a Military style GP medium tent would be good enough shelter for a couple of families until infrastructure can be rebuilt. Better than a tarp anyway.
They don’t have Michigan winters or ElPaso Summers to content with

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Hoosierdoc

Any word on how the charter fleets did? With this much warning I'd hope they were able to get most of the boats out of there.



I hadn't been to Abaco yet, was hoping to soon. Such a shame. But it should get rebuilt fresh and clean in time

The Charter fleets don’t have the people to move the boats, and the people they have aren’t likely I’d assume to abandon their family to save a boat, unless they own the boat of course.
Then of course they have the same quandary we do, with the uncertainty of the path of the Hurricane, do you leave your strong socks that your lashed to to travel possibly into the eye of the Hurricane?

Sitting at our homes in our chairs it easy to think, why didn’t all those boats head South?
However sitting in the probable path, you wonder should I dodge left or right? The cone of uncertainty covers both.
Remember Irma? Until the last minute it was supposed to track up the east coast, but came up the West coast instead.

[zeehag]

https://twitter.com/a_a_ronbrogan/st...77024271507456

https://twitter.com/elforopr/status/1168684965858553856

there are many popup groups for relief in abaco..be careful with whom you run.
freeport is only part of the 30 percent remaining of the island. yes 70 percent of the island went away. gone.
i see worries on ohmyboat! but first the people. many many missing. gone. yes searching is being done by uscg and others. the island chain is a lot different from the last time any of you visited. remember the waters swelling surging and flowing over the island were in excess of 25 ft depth.

the ocean came......

[Checkswrecks]

OMG - Can't believe that Grand Bahama is more than half gone.


And with more than a day of being blasted with nearly 200 mph seawater, there won't be much left of any infrastructure for what does remain. Sad.

On a closer note to home and as a warning, existing nautical charts will be absolutely worthless. I'd guess that there will be entirely new banks, reefs, islands, and trenches over a huge area.

[contrail]

Sitting at our homes in our chairs it easy to think, why didn’t all those boats head South?
However sitting in the probable path, you wonder should I dodge left or right? The cone of uncertainty covers both.
Remember Irma? Until the last minute it was supposed to track up the east coast, but came up the West coast instead.[/QUOTE]


This should be a good moment for those who smile and say, " I will simply sail out of the way!" how problematic that can be. In hindsight.....


Irma, whose course was slightly north of the BVI, chose to dip down a bit and beat us to death. Sailing south a couple of hundred miles would have been an easy choice. No way was it going to go South more than a bit. Several did that, while the rest of us (myself included) found reasons not to move. In my case I had some maintenance to do, as I was just coming off four straight charters, filters to be changed, etc. etc. What would have been wrong with just forgetting those and going? Hindsight....the consequence was six months in the boatyard. On the other hand, Maria, a couple of weeks later, was forecast to turn right, in the region of Dominica, and head Northwest toward us and the USVI, and Puerto Rico. Would it have been sane to sail south and cross right in front of it, counting on the timing of that turn? How about going North? Well, the open Atlantic was raging (on the strong side of Maria) and I personally know of an 80 foot barge that went down and forced the crew into their liferaft. They were picked up a few hours later. So....it's not always easy to "just sail away", although in retrospect it is always easy to pick a course that MIGHT have worked. Best to have a better plan, or be somewhere else!

[MicHughV]

just been watching some video coming in from the Abaco's.
The Abaco's as we have come to know it ....is history....no two ways about it.

Havn't heard anything from Cooperstown, Foxtown or Grand Cay, but can imagine total obliteration there. Man-0-War took a particular hard hit...Marsh Harbor same.....ditto for Hope Town

From what I understand, no boats survived anywhere...

There was a time when I thought Hope Town or Marsh Harbor could provide some kind of hurricane protection, but against a Cat 5 Plus....no chance.....

Lordy...lordy...lordy....the Bahamians are gonna need our help !!

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

The logistics just don’t make it possible, just too many people and not enough time.
Hindsight is 20/20, better plan may have been shelters, will they be built now? Will people leave?
My guess is that people will travel to where the relief / housing is available. If it’s available in their community, they will stay. Every small township had from what I saw decent dockage, often RO/RO ramps and a decent fleet of shallow draft vessels for deliveries. If they have the relief supplies available, I believe they can be distributed.
I can tell you from experience that a Military style GP medium tent would be good enough shelter for a couple of families until infrastructure can be rebuilt. Better than a tarp anyway.
They don’t have Michigan winters or ElPaso Summers to content with

Water will be the big deal I would think.

[GordMay]

A striking satellite image of Grand Bahama Island shows vast areas of the island under water after Hurricane Dorian passed through the region on Monday.
For comparison, we've included an image that shows the same regions of the island prior to Hurricane Dorian. The yellow lines mark where the land was before the storm flooded the area.

➥ https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/03/weath...rnd/index.html



Grand Bahama Airport

[hpeer]

Isn’t that just flood waters which should recede? Much of Grand Bahama is just barely above sea level on a normal day.

Which isn’t to diminish their problems, but some folks are reacting as if this image is showing the new shore line. I think not.

Someone else noted that all existing Abaco charts are likely obsolete due to changing bottom conditions. I think that’s probably correct, not to mention that there will be a ton of debris in the water.

Elsewhere I hear Spanish Wells is trying to mount a relief effort as soon as conditions permit. That makes a LOT of sense as those fellow know the waters and have larger boats equipped with smaller boats to lighter material ashore. Also Spanish Wells has the dockside services to be an intermediate material transfer point. Although it won’t take a lot to jam that channel up. It will be truly ironic if these rebels become the hero’s. Let’s wish them luck!

[a64pilot]

Spanish Wells is a significantly different community than a lot of the Bahamas.
By that I mean they seemed self sufficient, hard working get things done types.
I have no doubt that they will do everything they can, and hopefully that will be significant as they have the fishing fleet there.

Water will be significant, but honestly I don’t know what their primary source is or was, often it’s RO I believe.
According to Rob Roberts in Spanish Wells the well water isn’t fit to drink, they were getting a large RO unit, maybe next year?
Marsh Harbor city water tested very high on a cheap TDS meter.

This was before the storm. I guess you tanker in water?

[hpeer]

I seem to recall Spanish Wells was running an RO plant. Can’t be sure. I did ask because of the name.

But I think you are correct. I suppose Freeport has deep water shoreside facilities. Marsh Harbor would need to???? Barge maybe?

And the outlying folks (Eg Grand Cay) will need to be brought to water if they haven’t already evacuated.

Their troubles are FAR from over.

[GordMay]

As of 2017, Spanish Wells' water supply is pumped from a well field in mainland Eleuthera.
“We have a 100,000-gallon water tank that is supposed to be kept full but there has never been a shut off system installed. So, once the tower is full, the overflow goes into the harbour until such time as Water and Sewerage on Eleuthera can be contacted.
“The council just recently sent a sample of city water to an independent lab in Nassau. Here is a sampling of the findings. Calcium 624.00, chloride 2,675.77, salinity 4.90ppt and there was also trace of coliform found. I am sure it is illegal to sell this water to the public, in fact, it’s probably illegal to give it away,” he claimed.
“The authorities have been aware of the water situation on Spanish Wells for many years. Despite continuous development on Russell Island, the public water supply does not extend to residents and businesses to the far west.