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monte · 20-11-2015, 06:56

Biggest El Niño killer, La Niña coming - Business Insider
Hi. I'm just wondering how this will effect a 2016 pacific crossing E-W leaving Panama in February. Any thoughts from the weather gurus and pacific sailors appreciated. How did the El Niño effect the weather there this year?

AiniA · 20-11-2015, 07:11

I certainly would not pretend to be an expert on this, but when we crossed the Pacific a few years ago we did it during a La Nina. A couple of people said this contributed to the fairly benign conditions we experienced. This would suggest that an El Nino year should produce stronger winds. Seems logical with more heat in the system.

NoTies · 20-11-2015, 12:25

El Nino is forecast to peak around late December from memory. A Feb departure from Panama should have you entering the cyclone belt very late in the season so I can't see too much of an issue. Bob McDavitt is a good person to turn to for South Pacific sailing weather advice.

monte · 21-11-2015, 05:26

Thanks for the advice. I emailed Bob and here's his speedy reply!

This extreme EL NINO , may weaken the trade winds and play with the ocean currents between Panama and Marquesas. Also increase the swell due to tropical activity over French Polynesia.

Maybe we can use the winds that were measured in the previous extreme EL NINO in 1998 as a proxy for what may happen this year --- as seen at
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000...283/index.html
or http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outsta...029/text.shtml

This shows that NE winds --which normally blow Panama to Galapagos from Jan to the equinox, actually were replaced by NW winds in Feb/Mar 1998. So maybe you should start early in 2016. Also the drop in winds between Panama and galapagoa in early 1998 was on average around 2 m/s that’s 5 knots.

Bob

zeehag · 21-11-2015, 06:02

sorry monte it is not COMING, it is HERE and has been since may. is second year of el nino.
it pays to pay attention to weather, something i have done since age 8. follows as i was sailing since age 7.
weather is an intrinsic part of sailing.
last year was el nino first, this is super el nino. second in a row..
so.... as the current has been being compared with 1997, which was supposedly the WORST and this one is worser, hunker down, sail away., do what you usually do. just be ready for anything, as this is a first in history suppposedly.
watch your weather sites and pay attention .
getting upset abou tit does nothing. preparation is key, as is flexibility. we have been beinng advised of el nino for decades, and i have been watching, as a californikator, for decades... has beeen interesting.
i wouldnt sail down west coast this winter without watching weather closely.
some wicked storms come out in el nino winter to play with west coast.

generally the treend with el nino is that the trade winds are weaker, weather in west coast is stronger, and life sucks for land dwellers across nation as snow is real. cold seems colder
\last winter, we had a wet season, instead of a dry dry season...we see what happens this winter, as we are innew territory.
this is first time fro 2 sequential el ninos and first one stronger per anomalies seen, than 1997.

SniperSailor · 21-11-2015, 08:07

Not to be a grammar Nazi but your title should be El Nino/La Nina. In Spanish youve got to match the gender.

reed1v · 21-11-2015, 08:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSailor

Not to be a grammar Nazi but your title should be El Nino/La Nina. In Spanish youve got to match the gender.

Heil to the Nazi. Noticed that also. In either case, outside of the mid pacific and coastal south america, the predicted impacts are of low correlation(r < .3).

brownoarsman · 21-11-2015, 08:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSailor

Not to be a grammar Nazi but your title should be El Nino/La Nina. In Spanish youve got to match the gender.

You've got to give him credit for nailing the squiggly though ...

Sent from my iPhone using Cruisers Sailing Forum

reed1v · 21-11-2015, 08:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by brownoarsman

You've got to give him credit for nailing the squiggly though ...

Sent from my iPhone using Cruisers Sailing Forum

Yeah, those squigglies really are sneaky. At least Spanish speakers do not have to worry about umlauts. Those are really nasty.

Kerry1 · 21-11-2015, 11:15

Listening to a VHF conversation at Opua, NZ where people are coming in from Pacific Islands to dodge the cyclone season, a person was coaching another sailor in transit on how to find the Q dock at Opua. She said one yacht took 21 days to make the trip from Fiji. They must have struck consistent headwinds all the way- "Never again" was the expression I heard. For Kiwi's El Nino means a cooler summer, drier on the Eastern and Northern coasts and lots of strong Southwesterlies. Agree with OP, Bob McDavit is the goto weatherman for advice here.

Paul L · 21-11-2015, 12:41

I'm not sure it makes that much difference to someone crossing the Pacific. Its not like you are going to wait a year and see if the conditions get better. There are a few months where it makes sense to leave Panama to start your crossing -- not really a lot to pick from. Maybe the biggest issue would be where you plan to hide from cyclone season. An El Nino might significantly change the locations in the Pacific where storms are more likely and change the number. But even with that info, one storm in your location is all you need to have a bad day. It will be interesting to see how the El Nino effects the boats this year who have decided to cyclone season in the Marquesas and in the Societies.